Crude Oil Futures Tumble as Demand Outlook Dims, China Manufacturing Slows

Crude oil fell for a second day on signals that economic growth in the U.S. and China, the world’s biggest energy consuming countries, is slowing. Oil slipped as much as 2.9 percent after China’s industrial output grew by the least in 11 months and the Federal Reserve said the U.S. recovery is decelerating. Futures extended declines after the U.S. Energy Department reported that fuel supplies climbed last week.

“The Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness and the picture here is worsening,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The economic picture isn’t rosy. The question now is where we will find support as we move south.” Crude oil for September delivery fell $2.10, or 2.6 percent, to $78.15 a barrel at 11:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.90, the lowest level since July 30. Brent crude oil for September settlement slipped $1.93, or 2.4 percent, to $77.67 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

China’s year-on-year industrial production growth slowed to 13.4 percent in July, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. In June, the increase was 13.7 percent. July’s gain was the smallest since August last year after excluding distortions caused by holidays at the start of each year. “The markets are once again responding to negative economic news from China,” said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “Chinese industrial output isn’t growing as fast and the retail sales numbers were disappointing”.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: This Trendline is Crucial Support for the S&P 500

This is going to be a short video, but one we believe is important to all traders and investors.

The video runs two minutes and 18 seconds and shows you one key element that we think can make or break the S&P 500 market.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil prices are trading lower early again today. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit.

In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at 80.00 and then at the overnight high of $80.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.50. Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 80.36.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading, on short covering and safe haven buying interest. Bulls have quickly gained fresh upside near term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter term technical resistance at 82.00 and then at 82.25. Shorter term support is seen at 81.50 and then at 81.23.


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Where is Crude Oil & Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.51 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.08 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is today's low crossing at 79.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.08.

Natural gas closed slightly lower on Tuesday but remains above support marked by July's low crossing at 4.290. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, May's low crossing at 4.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.622 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.583. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.622. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.313. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.140.

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday while extending last week's trading range. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1129.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1100.59 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1127.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1129.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1100.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1083.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. A late day sell off tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. A late day sell off tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60.

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Phil Flynn: If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. This is a far cry from expectations just a few weeks ago when the Fed was widely expected to reduce their balance sheet as they were set to collect 100 to 180 billion dollars in profit from its Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) it took over in the heat of the financial crisis.

Instead of putting that money back in their coffers and reducing the money supply, the fearful Fed may just pump that cash back out there and buy more MBS or bonds to try to inspire some economic activity and maybe even some job creation. In fact data out of China overnight might even put more pressure on the Fed to act. Chinese imports came in much weaker than expected in July causing a big selloff in the Shanghai composite index. The index dropped 2.9% which was its worst percentage.....Read the entire article.

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New Video - Dissecting The World Cup Portfolio

Today we are going to take a look at MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio that has been tracking six markets for the past three years. We think it is fair to say that the last 36 months have presented one of the most challenging trading environments in recent memory.

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We put together this very short video which is only 1 minute 45 seconds long and gives you all the information that you need to decide whether or not this approach is one that could work for you. Bear in mind that the World Cup Portfolio is a leveraged portfolio unlike our "Perfect Portfolio" which is not leveraged. We think you will find this video very informative and educational.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight and is extending last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 81.32

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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Phil Flynn: What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?

What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger than expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. The goal is to try to inspire some type of economic enterprise.

Despite the signs of some rebound in the economy new health care programs and new financial regulation bills are leading to uncertainty and economic immobility. The Fed worried about another deflationary spiral that had seemed to be gaining momentum as the market anticipated a reduction of the fed balance sheet. The Fed fears that if they start to remove this stimulus that then it is possible that this nascent recovery make roll over and die.....Read the entire article.

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Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing

This is like the perfect marriage of TV and the web. Now you can attend online trading seminars that you have an interest in. It is so easy. If you are reading this email, you are online and therefore have everything you need to get started. You can attend all 4 trading seminars, or just the ones that interest you. There are four world class trading instructors that will help improve your trading. Best of all, it's all online and it's on TREND TV now.

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