Dan Dicker, senior TSC contributor, doesn't like the stock market right now but reveals the two stocks he's watching as indices correct. Follow Dan on Twitter @Dan_Dicker.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Crude Oil Continues it's Slide....Lower Prices Still Likely
The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 74.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.36 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.05
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.36
First support is today's low crossing at 75.52
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.70
New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements
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How to Take Advantage of Panic Selling for SP500 and Gold
Did you close out any long positions today? Well if not then you are one of a few!
Today (Wednesday) the market gapped down 1.5% at the opening bell which set a very negative tone for the session. Volume was screaming as protective stops triggered and traders close out positions before prices fell much further. This gap seemed to have caught several traders off guard but those of you who follow my newsletter knew something big was brewing and to keep positions very small.
Just before the close on Tuesday I had a buy signal for the SP500 which was generated from the extreme readings on the market internals. After watching the market chop around and get squeezed into the apex of the rising wedge the past 3 weeks I knew something big was about to happen and I did not want to get everyone involved because I felt a large gap was about to happen and the odds were 50/50. Instead we passed on the technical buy signal and waited to see what would happen Wednesday.
Below are a few charts showing one of my extreme reading indicators I use which helps me to identify possible short term bottoms.
SP500 – SPY Exchange Traded Fund
This daily chart of the SPY etf clearly shows that when we see panic selling in the NYSE which I consider 15+ sell orders to each buy order to be PANIC SELLING. This is shown using the purple indicator at the bottom of the chart. Today there was an average of 37 sell orders to every buy order which tells me the majority of traders are closing out all their long positions.
In an uptrend this indicator works very well and can help time a bottom within 1-4 days. As you can see on the chart below we just had a huge sell off and everyone seemed to be exiting their positions. This panic selling tends to carry over for a couple sessions until the majority of traders around the globe are finished selling.
The problem with this indicator is that in a down trend we tend to get these panic selling spikes regularly which means this time it may not work out because of the trendline break today which I think has officially changed the trend from up to down. Because of this possible down trend starting I feel its best to wait and see if it’s a dead cat bounce or if there are real buyers behind it, then we will take action to go long or short the market.
Market Internals – Put/Call Ratio & NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Min Charts
Here are two charts which are currently at extreme levels. This typically means we a bounce should occur the following day or a gap higher. If you did not know there was a strong trendline breakdown today you most likely would have taking a small long position into the close.
The Put/Call ratio when above 1.00 means more people are buying put options, meaning they are leveraging themselves to make money if the market drops. As a contrarian indicator, if everyone is buying leverage to the down side then they should have sold their long positions already. That would mean most of the selling has already taken place in the market thus it should have some upward bias in the near term.
On the other side you can see the NYSE A/D line which shows how many stocks on the NYSE are advancing and how many have moved lower. When this indicator is below -1750 then we know the market is oversold on a short term basis and there should be some upward bias in the near future.
Now Lets Take A Look At Gold
Gold was left on the side of the road today as traders and investors focused on the equities market. I was actually a little surprised that it didn’t make a big move today because the US Dollar rocketed higher for the entire session. Anyone who has been watching gold closely already knows that gold is doing its own thing now… Some days it moves with the dollar, other days it does not… its become much more random than it used to be.
Anyways it looks to be forming two patterns… first one is a bull flag. If a breakout to the upside occurs that would send gold to the $1230-40 level.
The second pattern is a mini head and shoulders pattern which would send gold down to the $1180 area if the neck line is violated. It is a very tough call for gold.
Mid-Week Technical Traders Update:
In short, it’s going to take a day or two before we get a feel for the SP500 as we wait to see if it bounces with volume behind it. I personally would like a bounce so we can short it. It is unfortunate how the market broke down today. We were so close to getting a really good setup in either direction but the FOMC meeting shook things up and caused the large gap which in turn made a large group of traders miss that beautiful drop… It’s frustrating when you wait for something only to have a piece of news mess things up. That’s just part of trading though.
As for gold, I feel it’s a 50/50 trade and could go either way so I am not going to take a position right now. I’m just going to wait for the market to tip its hand a little more before I jump.
We hope you find this information useful. If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's trading reports, updates and ETF alerts be sure to visit his service at The Gold And Oil Guy .com
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Today (Wednesday) the market gapped down 1.5% at the opening bell which set a very negative tone for the session. Volume was screaming as protective stops triggered and traders close out positions before prices fell much further. This gap seemed to have caught several traders off guard but those of you who follow my newsletter knew something big was brewing and to keep positions very small.
Just before the close on Tuesday I had a buy signal for the SP500 which was generated from the extreme readings on the market internals. After watching the market chop around and get squeezed into the apex of the rising wedge the past 3 weeks I knew something big was about to happen and I did not want to get everyone involved because I felt a large gap was about to happen and the odds were 50/50. Instead we passed on the technical buy signal and waited to see what would happen Wednesday.
Below are a few charts showing one of my extreme reading indicators I use which helps me to identify possible short term bottoms.
SP500 – SPY Exchange Traded Fund
This daily chart of the SPY etf clearly shows that when we see panic selling in the NYSE which I consider 15+ sell orders to each buy order to be PANIC SELLING. This is shown using the purple indicator at the bottom of the chart. Today there was an average of 37 sell orders to every buy order which tells me the majority of traders are closing out all their long positions.
In an uptrend this indicator works very well and can help time a bottom within 1-4 days. As you can see on the chart below we just had a huge sell off and everyone seemed to be exiting their positions. This panic selling tends to carry over for a couple sessions until the majority of traders around the globe are finished selling.
The problem with this indicator is that in a down trend we tend to get these panic selling spikes regularly which means this time it may not work out because of the trendline break today which I think has officially changed the trend from up to down. Because of this possible down trend starting I feel its best to wait and see if it’s a dead cat bounce or if there are real buyers behind it, then we will take action to go long or short the market.
Market Internals – Put/Call Ratio & NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Min Charts
Here are two charts which are currently at extreme levels. This typically means we a bounce should occur the following day or a gap higher. If you did not know there was a strong trendline breakdown today you most likely would have taking a small long position into the close.
The Put/Call ratio when above 1.00 means more people are buying put options, meaning they are leveraging themselves to make money if the market drops. As a contrarian indicator, if everyone is buying leverage to the down side then they should have sold their long positions already. That would mean most of the selling has already taken place in the market thus it should have some upward bias in the near term.
On the other side you can see the NYSE A/D line which shows how many stocks on the NYSE are advancing and how many have moved lower. When this indicator is below -1750 then we know the market is oversold on a short term basis and there should be some upward bias in the near future.
Now Lets Take A Look At Gold
Gold was left on the side of the road today as traders and investors focused on the equities market. I was actually a little surprised that it didn’t make a big move today because the US Dollar rocketed higher for the entire session. Anyone who has been watching gold closely already knows that gold is doing its own thing now… Some days it moves with the dollar, other days it does not… its become much more random than it used to be.
Anyways it looks to be forming two patterns… first one is a bull flag. If a breakout to the upside occurs that would send gold to the $1230-40 level.
The second pattern is a mini head and shoulders pattern which would send gold down to the $1180 area if the neck line is violated. It is a very tough call for gold.
Mid-Week Technical Traders Update:
In short, it’s going to take a day or two before we get a feel for the SP500 as we wait to see if it bounces with volume behind it. I personally would like a bounce so we can short it. It is unfortunate how the market broke down today. We were so close to getting a really good setup in either direction but the FOMC meeting shook things up and caused the large gap which in turn made a large group of traders miss that beautiful drop… It’s frustrating when you wait for something only to have a piece of news mess things up. That’s just part of trading though.
As for gold, I feel it’s a 50/50 trade and could go either way so I am not going to take a position right now. I’m just going to wait for the market to tip its hand a little more before I jump.
We hope you find this information useful. If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's trading reports, updates and ETF alerts be sure to visit his service at The Gold And Oil Guy .com
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Phil Flynn: Peg Through My Heart!
This is especially true after the US trade deficit jumped by a whopping 18.8 percent hitting to $49.9 billion dollars, highest level since 2008. Yet at the same time, China, the great hope for commodity bulls, has some major economic problems on their own. China's growth was at 11.9% and has fallen abruptly to 10.2% in the second quarter. Recent data on Chinese Industrial output reports it fell to 13.4%. China’s real estate bubble is alarming. China has raised interest rates to try to reign in property speculation.....Read the entire article.
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Crude Falls Below $77 After U.S. Supplies Increase, Economic Outlook Dims
“The weekly jobless numbers were disastrous and sent the market lower,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The oil market is facing the reality, which is that supplies exceed demand. The only thing that was supporting prices was a false sense of economic security.” Crude oil for September delivery dropped $1.46, or 1.9 percent, to $76.56 a barrel at 10:03 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $76.05, the lowest level since July 28.
Brent crude oil for September settlement fell $1.52, or 2 percent, to $76.12 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Economists forecast claims would fall to 465,000, according to the median of 42 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The government revised the prior week’s claims figure up to 482,000 from a previously reported 479,000. The Federal Reserve on Aug. 10 held its benchmark interest rate at a record low and announced it will reinvest principal payments on mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities, an effort to bolster economic growth.....Read the entire article.
New Video: How to Spot Winning Trades
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New Video: How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW
The weekly chart on the DOW is flashing the same Japanese candlestick signal that it had earlier in April of this year. Back then the DOW dropped from 11,200 to 9,700 in the space of just 10 weeks!
If nothing else watch this video as this could be one of the most important weeks for the DOW and its future. The video runs three minutes. You will find it both interesting and educational from both a Fibonacci and Japanese candlestick point of view.
As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the future of the Dow and the markets in general.
Watch How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW
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Crude Oil Continues it's Decline....Here's Thursday's Trading Numbers
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 75.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.13
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50
Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 78.57
First support is the overnight low crossing at 76.92
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.90
a href="http://tinyurl.com/y9o4shu">The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bears Take Clear Advantage as Crude Oil Closes Below the 20 Day Moving Average
Natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above support marked by July's low crossing at 4.290. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, May's low crossing at 4.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.582 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.582. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.825. First support is today's low crossing at 4.257. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.140.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.93 confirming that a short term bottom has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 83.64 is the next upside target. If September renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.64. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60.
Gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1220.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.00 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1212.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1191.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.00.
New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements
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Phil Flynn: You Don’t Believe We Are On The Eve Of Demand Destruction
Ok it is not only the Fed worried about a slowdown in the economy, it seems that the International Energy Agency is as well. The Fed helped bail out oil bulls to a certain extent when they said they would reinvest principal payments on mortgage assets the central bank holds into U.S. treasuries in an effort to keep historically low borrowing rates historically low. I know it sounds ironic. The Fed is concerned that growth has slowed in recent months and fears that "the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.....Read the entire article.
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