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Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.25 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.52
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.25
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 74.08
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 73.19
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
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Prices continue to churn as traders and investors try to figure if they want their hard earned dollar in cash or investments. The market is very jittery simply because no one wants to get caught on the wrong side of the market if it makes another 30-40% move, which is why we are seeing money rotate in and out each with very little commitment and follow through. Until a major trend looks to be in place most investors will not me holding many positions over night or through the weekend.
Here are a couple charts on what I think is most likely to happen in gold and the sp500.
GLD – Gold ETF Daily Chart
Last week we saw gold move higher by 1% but I cannot help but think a sharp sell off is only days away from being triggered. Either we get a another pop into resistance which would eventually trigger a wave of sellers and cause a sharp drop or the price of gold will drift lower to eventually break a key support level and trigger stop orders. Once the stops start to get triggered I would expect follow through selling for a couple days which will pull the price of GLD back down to the $113-116 area.
Also there is a possible head and shoulders pattern forming on this chart which is not picture perfect one but, it’s important to be aware as a neckline break could trigger massive selling and pull GLD down to the $100 area. But that would not unfold for several weeks if not months.
SPY – SP500 ETF
SP500 broke down from the support trendline two week ago and has since been trying to bounce. Last week we did see a two day pop but was given back Thursday. As you can see there is a possible mini head & shoulders pattern forming and the current price is testing the neckline. A breakdown below this should trigger a move to the $102 level.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market is trading at a key support level and this week should be exciting. Looking at several large cap stocks I am seeing bear flags on a large percentage of charts. Seeing these forming makes me think lower prices are just around the corner.
It looks like low risk trading setups are about to start popping up across the board and if we get a powerful trend going into the year end there will be some good money made for those on the proper side.
Crude oil's decline from 82.97 extended further as expected last week and continued to sustain below the short term rising trend line. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 71.09 support next. As discussed before, whole rebound from 64.23 should be finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 will confirm this case and target another low below 64.23. On the upside, above 76.63 resistance will suggest that a short term bottom is in place, possibly with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Stronger recovery would be seen in this case. But after all, risk will now remain on the downside as long as 82.97 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 will confirm this case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, even in case of another rise, focus will remain on reversal signal as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.
Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.24
Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 75.19
First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.25
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA?
Now just stop and think where the price of oil was 27 years ago and what kind of world we lived in 1983. Some things were different but some are the same. Ronald Regan was president and had just lifted wage and price controls on oil. It was the first year that the NYMEX had offered futures contracts on crude, the price per barrel was hovering around $30 a barrel. We were just emerging out of the of a 4 year recession that saw rapid job destruction and an unemployment topped out at 10.8%. Sound familiar.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.59
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 75.00
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 73.83
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
Trading commodities and indexes through the use of exchange traded funds sure keeps things simple for an average trader. These funds allow individual investors to buy and sell things like gold, silver, oil, the sp500 and other investments which where not available only few months ago like “wheat” for example.
One of the nice things with ETFs is that they allow everyone to follow the price of a commodity or index using any charting website and can even apply indicators to help spot key support and resistance levels using volume by price analysis. There is no need for a expensive data feeds, charting programs and you don’t have to worry about contract expiration.
Below are a few charts of the trend and my short term forecast.....
GLD – Gold Bullion ETF
As you can see gold broke out of its support zone this week and popped into the next resistance level. This is very typical price action in the stock market. It is important to look at the price charts like an apartment building. It’s nothing but a bunch of floors and ceilings.
How it works; if a ball breaks though a floor it will naturally fall to the next floor and bounce. The same for if a ball breaks through a ceiling, it will hit the next ceiling then bounce back down. This is essentially how the market moves.
SLV – Silver ETF
Silver is forming a large pennant and nearing its apex. With the amount of volume traded within this large volume channel I would expect a sharp breakout once a direction is made.
USO – Oil Traded Fund
Crude oil had a funky day. Early Wednesday morning in pre-market trading we saw virtually every investment drop at the same time which was strange. Anyways the US dollar dropped sharply and oil when down also. Normally as the dollar drops oil rockets higher but that was not the case today.
Currently oil is trading between two trendlines and is trying to hold up. If we get a breakdown then we could see a sharp drop in oil over the next 1-2 weeks.
SPY- SP500 ETF Trading Fund
The SP500 is trading within a high volume channel, similar to silver. Once a breakout in either direction is made I would expect a sizable move lasting a few weeks.
Mid-Week Commodity and Index ETF Report
In short, the market looks bearish for the short term of 5-10 trading sessions. This is because everything looks to be trading near resistance levels. That naturally brings sellers out of the woodwork putting pressure on prices.
Silver and gold stocks tend to lead the metals sector on breakouts so it will be important to keep an eye on them as we near a possible breakout or breakdown in the metals. If you see SLV or GDX ETFs out performing the GLD gold fund by 2-3x then I would expect to see gold move higher later that session or the following day.
The US dollar trend usually helps to identify if oil will have downward pressure or not. Also energy stocks tend to lead the price of oil by a few hours and some times a day. I keep an eye on XLE energy etf for a feel of how the energy stocks are doing and also UUP US dollar fund.
As for equities tech, financials and the Russell 2K (small cap stock) tend to lead the way for the broad market. Watching XLK, XLF and IWM help to confirm breakouts.
