Crude is bubbling to 2 year highs, with Byron Wien, Blackstone Advisory Svs., and Tom Petrie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE
Share
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Goldman Sachs: Oil Will Be "Substantially Higher" by 2012
“Despite the recent rally, we believe that forward price levels offer good hedging opportunities,” Goldman analysts, led by Allison Nathan in New York, said in the report. “We continue to expect improving fundamentals will provide additional support to prices.” Oil climbed to the highest in two years yesterday, and is up 7 percent this month, on speculation the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program will weaken the dollar, bolstering the investment appeal of commodities. U.S. crude inventories plunged 7.4 million barrels last week, the biggest drop since September 2008, according to an American Petroleum Institute report yesterday.
The Fed said Nov. 3 it will buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to spur the economy. Investors should have an “overweight allocation” on commodities because this policy, along with the global recovery, is positive for prices, according to Goldman.......Read the entire article.
Back and Better than Ever....MarketClub 2 Week Free Trial
Share
Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Nov. 10th
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.49 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 87.63
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07
Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 86.61
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.49
Watch "How To Use Fibonacci Retracements"
Share
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Ends 6 Day Rally
According to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report, 2010 U.S. natural gas production should increase 2.5 percent from 2009 levels and 0.2 bcf a day for October's marketed natural gas production. The intraday range for natural gas was $4.06 to $4.23. RBOB gasoline for December contract also settled up Tuesday, adding 0.65 cent, to $2.19 a gallon the highest since Aug. 3. Gasoline prices fluctuated between $2.16 and $2.20 Tuesday.
Courtesy of Rigzone.Com
Share
Sharon Epperson: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD
Share
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD
Share
Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Nov. 9th
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.34 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.40. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.34.
Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday renewing the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.228. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.34. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO
Share
How Long and How High for Gold, and How to Play It
From David Banister at Market Trend Forecast.Com......
Regular readers of my articles on Gold over the past few years know that I have a theory on this Gold Bull market. In summary, it’s that we are in a 13 Fibonacci year uptrend that started in 2001, and now we are in the final 4 years of that uptrend. It is in this last 5 year window that I theorized started in August of 2009 that investors really get involved. As the crowd comes in, prices push higher and higher, and then more and more investors come in and so forth.
The very recent rally has pushed us up to about $1,420 per ounce, on the way to my projected $1480-$1520 pivot highs on this leg from the $1040 area in February of this year. Subscribers to my TMTF newsletter have learned about Elliott Wave Theory and how to properly apply it to benefit from both the ups and the downs in various parts of the markets, as well as commodities and precious metals. If I am correct, we are in the 3rd wave up of 5 total waves from the August 2009 $900 per ounce levels. The first leg went from $900 to $1225, the second leg was corrective to $1,040, and now this 3rd wave should complete at around 150% of the 1st wave’s amplitude. In English, the probabilities are for Gold to continue higher to about $1527 per ounce, possibly a tad higher if the typical Elliott Wave patterns take hold, and also assuming again that I am correct in my read of those patterns.
One of the better ways to play this next 4 years of upside with intervening corrections is to look at prospect generator companies. These are Gold, Silver, and Copper explorers that do the early field work in identifying prospects for drilling. They then farm out these projects to willing partners and retain equity stakes and /or percentiles of the project itself. This reduces their need for capital while retaining nice upside for shareholders, and diversifying. When you are a tad long in this current wave pattern’s tooth, this is way to stay onboard, but not go overboard. I have personal ownership positions in a few of these types of companies, and my subscribers are aware of the few that we really prefer. Should one of the projects not pan out, you are not placing your entire shareholder bet on one drill project, and yet if they hit on a few, the upside can be substantial.
In the meantime, below is a chart pattern of where I see this rally peaking out and where I forecasted recent pivots. As we approach these levels, ($1480-$1525), it may be a good idea to pull back on some of your positions whether it be the metal itself or individual stocks.
If you would like to follow David Banister's free weekly updates or consider subscribing, sign up at Market Trend Forecast.Com and Receive a Special Coupon Offer Today
Share
Regular readers of my articles on Gold over the past few years know that I have a theory on this Gold Bull market. In summary, it’s that we are in a 13 Fibonacci year uptrend that started in 2001, and now we are in the final 4 years of that uptrend. It is in this last 5 year window that I theorized started in August of 2009 that investors really get involved. As the crowd comes in, prices push higher and higher, and then more and more investors come in and so forth.
The very recent rally has pushed us up to about $1,420 per ounce, on the way to my projected $1480-$1520 pivot highs on this leg from the $1040 area in February of this year. Subscribers to my TMTF newsletter have learned about Elliott Wave Theory and how to properly apply it to benefit from both the ups and the downs in various parts of the markets, as well as commodities and precious metals. If I am correct, we are in the 3rd wave up of 5 total waves from the August 2009 $900 per ounce levels. The first leg went from $900 to $1225, the second leg was corrective to $1,040, and now this 3rd wave should complete at around 150% of the 1st wave’s amplitude. In English, the probabilities are for Gold to continue higher to about $1527 per ounce, possibly a tad higher if the typical Elliott Wave patterns take hold, and also assuming again that I am correct in my read of those patterns.
One of the better ways to play this next 4 years of upside with intervening corrections is to look at prospect generator companies. These are Gold, Silver, and Copper explorers that do the early field work in identifying prospects for drilling. They then farm out these projects to willing partners and retain equity stakes and /or percentiles of the project itself. This reduces their need for capital while retaining nice upside for shareholders, and diversifying. When you are a tad long in this current wave pattern’s tooth, this is way to stay onboard, but not go overboard. I have personal ownership positions in a few of these types of companies, and my subscribers are aware of the few that we really prefer. Should one of the projects not pan out, you are not placing your entire shareholder bet on one drill project, and yet if they hit on a few, the upside can be substantial.
In the meantime, below is a chart pattern of where I see this rally peaking out and where I forecasted recent pivots. As we approach these levels, ($1480-$1525), it may be a good idea to pull back on some of your positions whether it be the metal itself or individual stocks.
If you would like to follow David Banister's free weekly updates or consider subscribing, sign up at Market Trend Forecast.Com and Receive a Special Coupon Offer Today
Share
Phil Flynn: Dollar Drubbing And Hot Commodities!
The Chinese are already stockpiling oil and panic buying in cotton and other commodities may start to take the place of buying US debt. Why lose money on a deckling dollar when you can make money holding gold, silver or corn! There is also some concern on the Brent side that North Sea crude production could fall. Short report today due to computer issues. Still you can always get the latest news by calling me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com . You can also catch Phil on the Fox Business Network where you can see him every day!
Share
The Bakken Play the Oil Majors Are Watching Closely
Located on either side of the Alberta/Montana border, the key land packages in this play have been assembled with very little news or fanfare – but by some very smart and successful companies, like Crescent Point (CPG-TSX) in Canada, and Rosetta Resources (ROSE-NASD), Newfield Exploration (NFX-NYSE) and Murphy Oil (MUR-NYSE).
But these larger companies have been very tightlipped about their plans, and aside from Crescent Point’s one press release this fall, it’s not easy to get information, because everybody is still trying to buy more land. To date, there are only a handful of juniors involved in the Alberta Bakken, but juniors and the bigger intermediate producers are all putting a lot of money into this play hoping it will be just like the Saskatchewan and North Dakota Bakken play to the east, which created tens of billions of dollars in shareholder wealth and many buyouts, corporate takeovers, over the last 5 years. Recent reports by Canadian brokerage firms agree. So the play is gaining momentum but hasn’t become mainstream yet.
That will change in the coming months. The historical geological evidence is intriguing, even compelling. But there is still only one well that has been publicly reported in the whole play, though several have been drilled. And despite the fact that the Alberta and North Dakota/Saskatchewan Bakken plays have completely different geological settings, huge land prices have been paid for big parcels of Alberta Bakken land in areas where truly, very little is known about the oil formations (yes this will likely be a multi zone play if it works).
This play was discovered on the US side of the border, in Montana. And while there has actually been a lot more activity on the US side, but you have to look hard to find mention of it. Rosetta, Newfield, Murphy and Quicksilver (KWK-NYSE) have each acquired roughly 300,000 acres in northern Montana in this play, a material land position even for companies this size, but you won’t find that information anywhere except in a couple lines buried deep in their quarterly statements. Rosetta said in its quarterly released just last week they had acquired more ground. Rarely do any of them include even one slide on this play on their corporate powerpoint. Rosetta and Newfield have each publicly said they are drilling 8 wells, though most of them now are vertical test wells, which the industry calls “strat” wells, which is short for stratigraphy.
Basically they’re trying to gather geological information and determine the best place to drill a more expensive horizontal well. No results have been released to date. But I can tell by reading the research reports on these companies that the analysts down in the US are watching this play. So are the majors, which did not participate much in the shale gas or shale oil boom in North America.
On the Canadian side, land prices around the Montana border edged up consistently this year, going from a low of $83 per hectare ($33.20/acre; 2.5 acres in a hectare) to $1535/ha, or $614 per acre, taking a lot of industry people by surprise at the time. The highest price paid for one small block was over $4500/ha, or $1800/acre. Crescent Point came clean in September when they announced they had acquired over 1,000,000 acres in the play, mostly via an acquisition of a private company, Darian, which had a substantial land position, but also through some freehold staking on their own. Most of the land in the area was bought up by land brokers, a whole sub-industry in the oilpatch that acts as "front men" for the oil producers. That is not unusual.
It is unusual to see a well licensed in the name of a land broker, which is what has happened with the one well in the Alberta Bakken that everyone is watching, here is a quick quote from BMO Nesbitt on this well: “In Alberta, one horizontal well has been drilled and completed targeting the Alberta Bakken (drilled under broker: Antelope Land Services 14-7-1-21W4: TD – Wabamum; results confidential). A second horizontal well is presently drilling (Antelope Land Services 16-24-2-25W4, licensed to the Exshaw, spudded August 17, 2010), and a third horizontal well licensed by Antelope Land Services located at 3-8-1-18W4 has also been drilled and rig released on October 3, 2010, to the Exshaw. It is believed that Crescent Point Energy is the operator of these three wells.”
The few juniors in the Alberta Bakken play stand to be richly rewarded if it works out as well as the early movers hope. This will also be good news for their shareholders, here is how Macquarie Capital sees the Alberta Bakken playing out for them: “Junior companies with meaningful, strategically situated lands will be purchased outright by mid/large cap producers who seek to bolt on additional acreage to already established positions. The potential exists that players who were late to the game may try to establish a position in the play via a small corporate acquisition, once some of the associated risks have been mitigated by the early comers.” In my next two stories on this fast emerging play, I will compare what is known about it to the Saskatchewan/North Dakota Bakken, and list the junior companies involved on both sides of the border.
Check out Keith's Hottest Investment Plays in North America: Oil and Gas Bulletin
Share
Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Nov. 9th
If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.38 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.63
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07
Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 86.84
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.49
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.38
Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!
Share
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
