Rising Production in the Permian Basin

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The Permian Basin, a long time oil and natural gas producing region in west Texas and eastern New Mexico, is showing signs of new life. The active rig count has grown from 100 rigs in mid 2009 to over 500 rigs in May 2012. According to data from the Texas Railroad Commission and the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, oil production from the Permian has increased fairly steadily over the past few years, reaching the 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) threshold in late 2011, the first time since 1998.

Sources: U.S Energy Information Administration, based on Baker Hughes, Railroad Commission of Texas, and New Mexic

Growing oil production in the Permian Basin and other Texas plays, most notably the Eagle Ford shale, may be starting to strain existing takeaway capacity and is creating a need for Texas oil to serve more distant refineries. While new pipeline projects are scheduled to come online, current transportation constraints have caused Permian crude oil, which is priced in Midland, Texas, to sell at a significant discount to WTI beginning in January 2012.

CME Group Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Recap for Tuesday July 10th

August crude oil prices trended lower throughout the session marking the lows of the day into the pit close. Early pressure in the crude oil market came from a resolution to the oil workers' strike in Norway and from weaker than expected Chinese oil import data for the month of June. The global oil demand story came under greater scrutiny following the EIA's monthly report that showed another downward revision in 2012 global oil demand. The agency sited lower economic growth forecasts. Another source of weakness in the crude oil market came from an afternoon sell off in US equity markets and gains in the US dollar. Expectations for this week's EIA crude oil stocks report are for a draw in the range of 1.25 to 1.50 million barrels.

Natural gas remains on a bit of a roller coaster ride... big decline on Friday, strong recovery on Monday and yet another sell off today. This type of trading action is very indicative of a market forming a top as well as a market that is laden with uncertainty. The main uncertainty that continues to hover over this market is will the rest of the summer weather result in enough cooling related demand to prevent the industry from hitting storage capacity limitations prematurely.

The EIA in the latest forecast (see below for the main highlights) is projecting inventory at the end of October to hit a record high of 4 TCF. With maximum storage capacity of just 4.1 TCF (EIA numbers) that leaves just 100 BCF storage space available for injections during the month of November... which are common...especially if winter type weather gets a late start. This also assumes that storage capacity is equally distributed in all three regions...which it is not. We could hit capacity limitation in the Producing region well before other regions.

The other issue overhanging this market is what will be the strategy of the utility sector in how much coal versus Nat Gas they consume for power generation. At current prices the economics are favorable to coal and I would expect utilities to burn more coal in lieu of Nat Gas and unless the Nat Gas price falls back to below the $2.70 to $2.75 level this move back to coal will continue. If so hitting record high inventory levels could then occur earlier than the EIA projection of the end of October.

After an early attempt to rally gold prices fell back and in the process the August gold fell back to this week's lows. Adverse currency market action, a noted reversal in equities and selling in a number of physical commodity markets seemed to leave gold in a patently bearish posture. Surprisingly gold was initially lifted on hopes for favorable progression in the Euro zone debt crisis but that story line ultimately seemed to be responsible for the washout in gold prices. In retrospect, seeing evidence of added weakness in the Chinese economy, in the wake of the Chinese trade deficit released seemed to spark fears that more serious slowing was in the offing before the Chinese begin to pull out the really aggressive stimulus guns.


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The Slide in Metals, Corn & Crude Oil

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

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Crude Oil Declines as Norway Orders End to Strike

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Crude oil dropped from the highest close in two days after Norway ended a strike by energy workers that had threatened to halt production by western Europe’s largest crude exporter.

Futures slipped as much as 1.1 percent in New York after the Norwegian government ordered compulsory arbitration in the dispute, preventing a lockout of platform workers that was scheduled to start at midnight yesterday. Norway pumped 1.63 million barrels of oil a day in May, or about 1.8 percent of global consumption, data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show.

“Traders are probably taking the premium out of oil now that they think the strike will be settled,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “It was looking like the strike was going to deteriorate further. That risk premium is certainly coming out of crude.”

Oil for August delivery fell as much as 98 cents to $85.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $85.15 at 11:05 a.m. Sydney time. The contract climbed 1.8 percent yesterday to $85.99, the highest close since July 5. Prices are 14 percent lower this year.

Read the entire Bloomberg article

CME Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Recap

August crude oil prices trended higher throughout the US trading session, supported by the lack of progress in resolving an oil workers strike in Norway. Another source of support for the crude oil market came from weakness in the US dollar and ideas that weaker than expected global economic data could prompt central bankers to pursue more monetary stimulus. The product markets were also higher, supported by gains in crude oil and prospect that leaders in China could move to lower domestic gasoline and diesel prices in a maneuver to stoke economic growth.

So far the natural gas futures market has recovered about 2/3 of the loss from Friday's session as the market rethinks the impact on demand from the hot weather in the US even as the economics of coal to gas switching are still biased to the coal side. At the moment the macroeconomics comparing the spot Nymex Appalachian coal price to the spot Nymex Nat Gas price is favorable to the coal side. This coupled with the robust level of coal inventories at many utility sites should result in the utility sector starting to switch back to coal at the expense of Nat Gas for power generation. This is certain to have an impact on demand and will eventually have a negative impact on the underperformance of injections that has been experienced throughout the injection season so far.

On the other hand the massive heat wave that has engulfed a major portion of the US for the last several weeks is cooling down in the south for the next 6 to 10 days. However, the above normal temperatures are projected to return during the 8 to 14 day forecast period. As such Nat Gas cooling demand will likely be above normal for most of the month of July and possibly beyond that. However, the big question is ...will the above normal level of cooling related Nat Gas demand be enough to compensate for the loss of demand from switching back to coal for power generation. I do not think it will be enough and as such I still view the current level of Nat Gas futures prices to be overvalued or better said ahead of the price level that the current fundamentals would support.

Perhaps the gold market was lifted by soaring grain prices or perhaps the gold trade was simply inspired by a revival of easing prospects from the Chinese. It is also possible that gold and other physical commodity markets were lifted as a result of calls to extend the Bush tax cuts for lower incomes. It is also possible that gold saw its fortunes boosted by a bounce in the Euro, which at times was hopeful of some fresh maneuvering from EU officials.

Here's Our "Accurate" Stock Market Predictions on the Next Major Move

The term Stock market predictions is a very controversial topic and does seem to give off a negative/non-credible overtone to most traders, investors and the general public. We all know you cannot predict the market with 100% certainty, but knowing that you can still predict the market more times than not if done correctly. Keep in mind that the term “market prediction” is also known as a market forecast or technical analysis outlook and is nothing more than a estimated guess of where the price for a specific investment is likely to move in the coming minutes, hours, days, weeks and even months.

Getting back on topic, this report clearly shows how the US dollar plays a dominant role in the price of other investments. Understanding how to read the Dollar Index will make you a better trader all around when trading stocks, ETF’s, options or futures.

SP500 Stock Market predictions – 10 Minute Chart:

These charts clearly show the inverse relationship between the stock market and the dollar index. Knowing how to read charts (candle sticks, chart patterns, volume etc…) is not enough to give you a winning edge. You must also understand inter-market analysis as all markets are linked together in some way and the dollar plays a major role in where stock prices will move next. Review the charts and comments below on how I came up with my stock market prediction and trade idea.

Gold Market Prediction – 10 Minute Charts

Gold is another investment which is directly affected by the price of the dollar. Review charts for more details.

Long Term Stock Market Forecast:

The weekly dollar chart is VERY IMPORTANT to watch as a short term trader and long term investor because trend changes in the dollar means you open positions will also likely change direction.

So, if we apply technical analysis to the dollar chart as seen below. You will notice we are able to create a market forecast and predict roughly where price is likely to move and how long it should take to get there. If the dollar can break above the red resistance level then we can expect a rally for 4 – 8 weeks and a price target around the 87-88 level.

If this is the case then stocks and commodities would likely do the inverse price action and move lower, sharply lower…

Stock Market Predictions & Gold Market Forecast Conclusion:

In short, the next weekly candle stick on the dollar chart could be a game changer for those who are long the overall stock market.

I will admit that the current market conditions are not easy to trade because of all the headline news rolling out of Europe each week along with economic data. And I feel as though we have been tip toeing through a mine field for the past 12+ months waiting for extremely negative news are extremely positive news to trigging a wave of buying or selling that will make our jaw drop, but it has yet to happen. Remember always use stops and don’t get over committed in a headline driven market.

If you would like to receive my free weekly analysis like this, be sure to opt-in to my list. 

Just click here to visit at The Gold and Oil Guy and sign up.

Chris Vermeulen

No End in Sight For Norways Oil Workers Strike

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Norway's oil strike looks no closer to ending, with a government mediator saying workers and employers are still "far apart" in a dispute over pay and pensions. The industry association, which includes Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP), has threatened to halt all output from Tuesday. The tactic is probably designed to force the government to halt the strike, as it has done in the past.

Negotiations failed for a third time today.

From Bloomberg News.....

Norway’s oil strike continued for a 15th day after talks supervised by a state mediator failed to reach a compromise that would prevent the dispute from escalating to include all of the country’s offshore oil and gas production.

“There are no new talks planned and we don’t know where we will go from here,” Kristin Bremer Nebben, a spokeswoman for the Norwegian Oil Industry Association, which represents employers including Statoil ASA (STL), BP Plc (BP/) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), said in a phone interview today.

6 Things Successful Traders Have in Common

Private Empire - Exxon Mobil And American Power

If you were expecting "Private Empire", the latest book by two time Pulitzer Prize winning author Steve Coll, to serve as a hit piece on Exxon Mobil (XOM) (and "big oil" in general) you'll be somewhat disappointed.

For anyone unfamiliar with his previous work, Steve Coll's earlier books include the highly recommended "Ghost Wars", arguably the definitive geopolitical account of the activities of the CIA and other national intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan from the time of the Soviet invasion up to the eve of the 9-11. Ghost Wars won the Pulitzer Prize in 2004 for general non-fiction and was one of the books a newly elected President Barrack Obama was reported to be reading upon entering office.

Steve Coll describes in an interview with Charlie Rose what lead him to want to write Private Empire and how his original idea for the book was to tell a broader story about the oil industry in the style of Daniel Yergin's "The Prize". He soon realized, however, that he needed a central character and Exxon was for him the only logical choice.

Coll's portrait of Exxon begins in March 1989 with the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, an event which made the company the most reviled in the United Sates. The book's timeline spans the subsequent transformation of the company, which was led by CEO Lee "Iron Ass" Raymond, up through its present day stewardship by current CEO Rex Tillerson.

Along the way we learn a great deal about Exxon, including its somewhat peculiar cult like corporate culture, its blockbuster merger with Mobil, its controversial stance and efforts on global warning, the access it enjoyed to political leaders such as Vice President Dick Cheney, its somewhat misleading approach to reporting oil reserves, and the company's record setting financial success. The book in fact makes for a compelling business case study and students of business history, strategy and management will find much of interest.

Read The Polycapitalist entire review



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Crude Oil Distillation and the Definition of Refinery Capacity

A crude oil refinery is a group of industrial facilities that turns crude oil and other inputs into finished petroleum products. A refinery's capacity refers to the maximum amount of crude oil designed to flow into the distillation unit of a refinery, also known as the crude unit.

The diagram below presents a stylized version of the distillation process. Crude oil is made up of a mixture of hydrocarbons, and the distillation process aims to separate this crude oil into broad categories of its component hydrocarbons, or "fractions." Crude oil is first heated and then put into a distillation column, also known as a still, where different products boil off and are recovered at different temperatures.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.  

Lighter products, such as butane and other liquid petroleum gases (LPG), gasoline blending components, and naphtha, are recovered at the lowest temperatures. Mid-range products include jet fuel, kerosene, and distillates (such as home heating oil and diesel fuel). The heaviest products such as residual fuel oil are recovered at temperatures sometimes over 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit.

The simplest refineries stop at this point. Although not shown in the simplified diagram above, most refineries in the United States reprocess the heavier fractions into lighter products to maximize the output of the most desirable products using more sophisticated refining equipment such as catalytic crackers, reformers, and cokers.

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CME Recap Energy Market Report For Friday July 6th

August crude oil prices trended lower throughout the session, weighed down by rising Spanish borrowing costs and a weaker than expected read on June US Non Farm Payrolls. Added downside pressure in the crude oil market came on talk that the oil workers strike in Norway could be nearing a resolution. A rally in the US dollar and weakness in global equity markets put added pressure on the global oil demand backdrop.

This morning's EIA natural gas storage report showed a smaller than expected weekly injection of 39 bcf. August natural gas garnered modest support in the moments following the report, but concerns that prices near the $3.00 level could reduce demand, relative to coal, pressured prices back below $2.80.

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