Diamond Offshore Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE:DO) today reported net income for the second quarter of 2012 of $201.5 million, or $1.45 per share on a diluted basis, compared with net income of $266.6 million, or $1.92 per share on a diluted basis, in the same period a year earlier. Revenues in the second quarter of 2012 were $738.2 million, compared with revenues of $889.5 million for the second quarter of 2011.

Results for the quarter included an after tax gain of approximately $50.5 million, or $0.36 per share, related to the sale of five jack up rigs. These transactions included the sale of the Ocean Sovereign for $38.5 million cash, in addition to the previously announced sales of the Ocean Heritage, Ocean Drake, Ocean Crusader and Ocean Champion. The reduction in the Company’s overall effective tax rate for the quarter, compared to the previous quarter, resulted primarily from the low effective tax rate associated with these sales transactions.

Since the first quarter of 2012, the Company put in place 14 new agreements that are expected to generate maximum total revenue of approximately $1.1 billion and 10 rig years of contract drilling backlog. Significant among these awarded contracts are the following:

* The Ocean Onyx was awarded a one year contract with Apache Deepwater LLC, a subsidiary of Apache Corporation, at a rate of $490,000 per day. The rig will work in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico upon its completion and delivery from the shipyard in 3Q of 2013.

* The Ocean Vanguard was extended with Statoil by 20 months to continue operating in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea into March of 2015. The new rate will be $450,000 per day, up from the previous rate of $352,000 per day.

* The Ocean Nomad was awarded a two year contract with Dana Petroleum to work in the U.K. North Sea until June of 2015. The rate will be $330,000 per day.

* The Ocean Guardian was extended with Shell for one year at a rate of $350,000 per day to continue working in the U.K. North Sea until July of 2015. The current rate is $263,000 per day.

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Where are U.S Refineries Concentrated?

Of the more than 17.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of refinery capacity located in the United States as of January 1, 2012, about 44% (or nearly 7.7 million bbl/d) is located along the Gulf Coast. As the map below indicates, there are a number of refineries, some of them very large, situated along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's annual Refinery Capacity Report provides capacity information about individual refineries as of January 1 each year. The report identifies refineries that are operable at the beginning of each year. Operable refineries are further classified as either operating or idle. A refinery could be idle for a number of reasons including routine maintenance, unplanned maintenance, or market conditions.

The Refinery Capacity Report also identifies refineries that were new, reactivated, or shut down in the previous calendar year, as well as refineries that were sold in the previous calendar year. The report includes detailed information about the atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity at each refinery and the capacities for several important downstream refinery units that are used to process the products coming from the atmospheric crude oil distillation unit for further processing.

Many refineries are located close to crude oil production centers such as the Gulf Coast (which has significant volumes of crude oil produced both onshore and offshore); near destinations for importing crude oil; or near major population centers where much of the refineries' output will be needed (e.g., California and the areas near Philadelphia, New York City, and Chicago).

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The Passage of Time Leads to Profitability for Option Traders

From J.W. Jones at Options Trading Signals.......


J.W may not be talking crude oil today but we never miss a chance to hear what he is thinking about using options to play this market.

My most recent missive discussed some of the nuances of the options Greek, Delta which deals with the change in option price with regard to changes in price of the underlying. Today I would like to examine some of the practical details surrounding the second of the primal forces describing the behavior of options with regard to the passage of time. This second Greek is Theta.

As opposed to the value of a stock position which varies only in relation to changes in price, options are subject to changes in value as a result of the interplay of three factors: price of the underlying, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Before we delve into describing the operational characteristics of Theta, we need to talk about the anatomy of an options price. Although it is quoted as a single bid / ask pair of quotes, the options price reflected on your quote screen actually consists of the sum of two components – the extrinsic and the intrinsic value of the option in question.

The intrinsic value of an option is that portion of the option that has value by virtue of the current stock price. For example, AAPL currently trades around $607 / share as I write this. The August 600 strike call trades at around $27.00. The intrinsic value portion of that premium is ($607-$600 = $7).

Intrinsic values of a given option can vary from essentially the entirety of the option value for a "deep in the money" option to $0 for an "out of the money option". In our AAPL example, the "out of the money" strike of $610 sells for $22 and contains $0 of intrinsic value.

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Why Devon Is Worth $83 Per Share

From guest blogger The Global Value Investor.....

Devon (DVN) is a energy company listed in S&P 500 and engages in exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas. Competitors include Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK), Encana Corporation (ECA) and EOG Resources (EOG). Devon has a market capitalization of $23.5 billion and revenues of $11.8 billion.

Risks refer to a price drop in the underlying commodities, particularly gas liquids as this article suggests. Now, missing analyst estimates is always a possibility, as is the decline in price of market traded commodities. Since I am long term oriented investor, I do not assign much weight to near term price fluctuations and suggest, investors use the current weakness in Devon, and stocks in general, to their advantage and increase their equity exposure.

Why I like Devon
From a value investor perspective, the stock is trading below intrinsic value. The company is achieving an operating margin of 44% and a decent, yet not spectacular, return on equity of 10.5%.

Investors sometimes point out the debt load of Devon which seems to be quite high at $11 billion dollars. However, they neglect the around $7 billion cash position on Devon's balance sheet, bringing its net debt position down to only $3.7 billion, or only 16% of current market value of equity. Factoring the cash position, Devon is significantly less leveraged than Chesapeake for example.

In fact, Devon's cash position allows for major capital expenditures for its US and Canadian operations that are going to drive EPS going forward. Currently, analysts estimate about 9.55% earnings growth per year over a 5 year period. EPS growth is expected to increase by over 30% over next year, which makes the investment proposition even more attractive.

Analysts estimate a 2013 EPS on average of $5.53. Applying a multiple of only 15x forward earnings (which is conservative because it still discounts Devon's strong cash flow prospects from its US operations, its high level of proven reserves and strong balance sheet) would yield an intrinsic value estimate of $82.95 - representing about 43% upside potential.

Chart traders may also find this natural gas play interesting. The stock has just rebounded from its lower bound trend canal at just below $55 and regained strength after testing its support level. The stock now sits just under the upper bound of its short term trend canal that it defined in April, when the stock started sliding downwards from its 52 week high.

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Crude Oils Have Different Quality Characteristics

Many types of crude oil are produced around the world. The market value of an individual crude stream reflects its quality characteristics. Two of the most important quality characteristics are density and sulfur content. Density ranges from light to heavy, while sulfur content is characterized as sweet or sour. The crude oils represented in the chart are a selection of some of the crude oils marketed in various parts of the world. There are some crude oils both below and above the API gravity range shown in the chart.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Energy Intelligence Group—International Crude Oil Market Han

Crude oils that are light (higher degrees of API gravity, or lower density) and sweet (low sulfur content) are usually priced higher than heavy, sour crude oils. This is partly because gasoline and diesel fuel, which typically sell at a significant premium to residual fuel oil and other "bottom of the barrel" products, can usually be more easily and cheaply produced using light, sweet crude oil.

The light sweet grades are desirable because they can be processed with far less sophisticated and energy intensive processes/refineries. The figure shows select crude types from around the world with their corresponding sulfur content and density characteristics.

The selected crude oils in the figure are not intended to be comprehensive of global crude production. Rather, they were grades selected for the recurrent and recently updated EIA report, "The Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Notes: Locations on the map are based on the pricing point, not necessarily the area of production. Locations are approximate. Points on the map are labeled by country and benchmark name. United States-Mars is an offshore drilling site in the Gulf of Mexico. WTI = West Texas Intermediate; LLS = Louisiana Light Sweet; FSU = Former Soviet Union; UAE = United Arab Emirates

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McMoran Exploration MMR Spikes on 2nd Quarter Earnings

McMoran Exploration, ticker MMR, spiked 12.4% today on the release of their second quarter earnings.

Here is just some of the highlights from the earnings......

* Ultra Deep Development Activities. In June 2012, successfully perforated 165 feet of Wilcox sands in the Davy Jones No.1 well with electric wireline casing guns. Commenced operations on July 13 to run production tubing and expect to conduct measurable flow test during the week of July 30.

* Completion and testing of Davy Jones No. 2 expected to commence following review of results from Davy Jones No. 1. As previously reported, Davy Jones No. 2 confirmed 120 net feet of pay in multiple Wilcox sands and also encountered 192 net feet of potential hydrocarbons in the Tuscaloosa and Lower Cretaceous carbonate sections. Davy Jones is located on a 20,000 acre structure that has multiple follow on drilling opportunities.

* Expect to submit development plans for Blackbeard East and Lafitte with Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) in the third quarter of 2012. Positive drilling results on these structures have identified formations in the Miocene, Oligocene and Eocene.

* Ultra-Deep Exploration Activities, Blackbeard West No. 2, Drilling below 21,100 feet with a proposed total depth of 24,500 feet.

* Set liner after well encountered a high pressure gas flow immediately below the salt weld in May 2012.

* Targeting Miocene aged sands seen below the salt weld at Blackbeard East.

* If successful, completion could utilize conventional equipment and technologies.

* Lineham Creek onshore prospect, Drilling below 19,000 feet with a proposed total depth of 29,000 feet. Targeting Eocene/Paleocene objectives below the salt weld.

* Highlander onshore prospect, Acquired exploratory rights to 68,000 gross acre area located in Iberia, St. Martin, Assumption and Iberville Parishes, Louisiana.

* Expect to commence drilling exploratory well in the second half of 2012.

* Well has a proposed total depth of 30,000 feet and will target Eocene, Paleocene and Cretaceous objectives seen below the salt weld in the Davy Jones wells.

* Central Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 216/222 Results, Apparent high bidder on 14 leases, of which six were sole bids and the remaining eight were made jointly with Chevron U.S.A. Inc.

* This new acreage would enhance McMoRan's industry leading Shelf sub-salt prospect inventory.

* Second quarter 2012 production averaged 140 MMcfe/d net to McMoRan, compared with 197 MMcfe/d in the second quarter of 2011.

* Average daily production for 2012 is expected to approximate 137 MMcfe/d net to McMoRan, including 135 MMcfe/d in third quarter 2012.

* Operating cash flows totaled $11.7 million for the second quarter of 2012, net of $9.1 million in working capital uses and $16.0 million in abandonment expenditures.

* Capital expenditures totaled $147.2 million in the second quarter of 2012.

* Cash at June 30, 2012 totaled $287.1 million.

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Is Natural Gas Ready To Rally?

By: Chris Vermeulen at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Natural gas (UNG) has recently caught my attention. While it was in a significant downtrend for the better part of a year it has recently been consolidating right under the $20 level. A look at the daily chart shows a long move down and then recently a sideways consolidation pattern. While this is typically a continuation pattern I am beginning to believe think that the next move may be up rather than an extension of the previous down trend.

* Over the last two weeks there been significant support above $18 and significant volume.

* The $20/$20.50 level has been tested multiple times and the more tests it undertakes the more likely it is to break.

* Both the 20 day and 50 day moving averages have turned upwards and UNG is trading above both.

If we zoom in a bit and take a look at the hourly chart we are presented with two scenarios

1. The rising wedge holds and UNG breaks through the $20 – $20.50 resistance level on high volume and a new long term up trend is produced

2. The head and shoulders pattern within the wedge breaks downwards and the downtrend resumes

I’m leaning towards option one but will be waiting for a breakout confirmed with volume in either case.

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The Mid Continent Sweet Spot for Oil and Refining

Wells Fargo Securities Senior analyst Roger Read explains why Tesoro and Western Refining are able to take advantage of the middle of the US for refining.



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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Recap from the CME Group for Monday July 16th

The Next Major Move in Precious Metals Is Close

September crude oil showed positive reversal action on the session, mounting a come back from early morning lows to register its highest close since May 29th. While a weaker than expected report on US retail sales pressured risk appetites, the crude and product markets were able to stabilize and turn higher. A turn lower in the US dollar and reports of a US Navy ship opening fire on a boat in the UAE supported the turn higher in crude oil prices. Chatter that Chinese officials could be closer to extending another round of monetary stimulus provided an added jolt to the crude oil market throughout the session. Gains in the expiring August Brent crude oil contract also offered the WTI market a modest lift.

Natural gas prices are giving back a portion of the post inventory report gains from last week. As I have been discussing at length in this newsletter the price of Nat Gas futures is not in sync with what the current fundamentals will support. The weather is moving toward another round of very hot weather over major portions of the US but the new round of very high temperatures will not last as long as the last bout of hot weather nor will the extreme heat cover as much of the US as the last round. There will be a call on Nat Gas for cooling demand over the next several weeks but based on the latest NOAA forecast the demand pull for Nat Gas may not be as strong as it was back in June.

The gold market swung around on both sides of unchanged today and after the weak morning action that might be considered a psychological victory for the bull camp. In addition to a reversal in the dollar, gold was also benefited at times by renewed US easing talk in the wake of a much softer than expected US retail sales report. As opposed to last week, when silver periodically outperformed the gold market, gold generally outperformed the silver market today. Apparently the rest of the metals complex was undermined by residual slowing fears, while gold was able to break away from the pack and avail itself of some speculative interest ahead of this week's Fed testimony.

Posted courtesy of The CME Group

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The Next Major Move in Precious Metals Is Close

What the GLD ETF Chart tells us about GOLD

After making new highs about a year ago we have seen Silver and Gold consolidate for roughly the last twelve months. Technically, it would typically be a bullish scenario with gold from the stand point that the last 12 months’ price action was a sideways consolidation in a bullish pennant formation. However over the last year we have witnessed a series of lower highs and increasingly tested supports levels around $150 on GLD which raises caution.

With the fed pulling any extensions on further quantitative easing in the form of QE3 or other programs, the bullish case has lately been criticised. However I am still a firm believer that gold in most respects is a currency, and the only one that can maintain its value. There are very serious issues looming in Europe and across the world that are far from resolution. With few tools left in the toolbox to stimulate world economies, further easing can never be ruled out.

Silver, after breaking through strong resistance around $19- $20 in September 2011 went almost parabolic in spring 2011 prior to giving up most of its gains in the last year. There seems to be significant support around $26 on SLV, however this level has been tested quite frequently over recent months and this again raises caution. While silver owes some of its moves to its industrial application, the high correlation between the two metals is not to be ignored.

I think the long term trade will be long in both metals, but I’m waiting to see a significant breakout out of these consolidations on heavy volume to confirm a direction. I would like to see both precious metals break out of their respective consolidations and ultimately have further confirmation in the USD. Any major headlines over the next couple months involving Europe or quantitative easing may provide us with the trigger for the next big move.

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Chris Vermeulen

Make sure to also read "Gold Cycles Will Soon Forecast Where Prices Are Headed"