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I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen. Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. Well it looks like Danielle will miss the Gulf of Mexico and go up the East Coast. Of course oil bulls have been hoping for some event to help them out as the shoulder season approaches us with supplies near multi decade highs and gasoline futures near 6 month lows.
As more questions arise about the strength of the economy, the weight upon the market is getting larger. It is getting harder to justify long positions especially as the economic recovery is locked in a quagmire. Weak jobs data and manifesting data and a sense that the economy is going nowhere really is making the market look heavier and heavier with each passing day. In fact even in China crude inventories are rising. Dow Jones reported that China's commercial crude oil stockpiles.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil rebounded from its lowest level in more than six weeks as equity markets advanced, spurring confidence that the economy is improving and fuel demand will recover. Oil rose for the first time in four days as U.S. stocks gained amid speculation takeovers will accelerate, boosting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after two weeks of losses. Tropical Storm Danielle may become the Atlantic season’s second hurricane within a day, the National Hurricane Center forecast.
“We’re tracking the equities,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy, a procurement adviser in Stamford, Connecticut. “We track the perceptions of how the economy is playing out through the equities and the dollar,” Crude oil for October delivery gained 51 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $74.33 a barrel at 9:54 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has fallen 6.3 percent this year. The September contract expired at $73.46 on Aug. 20, the lowest closing level since July 6.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to 1,080.89 after falling to a four-week low last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 84.54 points, or 0.8 percent, to 10,298.16. “The correlation is still strong with equities and it’s likely to remain so,” said Roland Stenzel, a crude and carbon trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH in Vienna. “The market continues to fluctuate”.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.25 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.52
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.25
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 74.08
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 73.19
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
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Prices continue to churn as traders and investors try to figure if they want their hard earned dollar in cash or investments. The market is very jittery simply because no one wants to get caught on the wrong side of the market if it makes another 30-40% move, which is why we are seeing money rotate in and out each with very little commitment and follow through. Until a major trend looks to be in place most investors will not me holding many positions over night or through the weekend.
Here are a couple charts on what I think is most likely to happen in gold and the sp500.
GLD – Gold ETF Daily Chart
Last week we saw gold move higher by 1% but I cannot help but think a sharp sell off is only days away from being triggered. Either we get a another pop into resistance which would eventually trigger a wave of sellers and cause a sharp drop or the price of gold will drift lower to eventually break a key support level and trigger stop orders. Once the stops start to get triggered I would expect follow through selling for a couple days which will pull the price of GLD back down to the $113-116 area.
Also there is a possible head and shoulders pattern forming on this chart which is not picture perfect one but, it’s important to be aware as a neckline break could trigger massive selling and pull GLD down to the $100 area. But that would not unfold for several weeks if not months.
SPY – SP500 ETF
SP500 broke down from the support trendline two week ago and has since been trying to bounce. Last week we did see a two day pop but was given back Thursday. As you can see there is a possible mini head & shoulders pattern forming and the current price is testing the neckline. A breakdown below this should trigger a move to the $102 level.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market is trading at a key support level and this week should be exciting. Looking at several large cap stocks I am seeing bear flags on a large percentage of charts. Seeing these forming makes me think lower prices are just around the corner.
It looks like low risk trading setups are about to start popping up across the board and if we get a powerful trend going into the year end there will be some good money made for those on the proper side.
Crude oil's decline from 82.97 extended further as expected last week and continued to sustain below the short term rising trend line. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 71.09 support next. As discussed before, whole rebound from 64.23 should be finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 will confirm this case and target another low below 64.23. On the upside, above 76.63 resistance will suggest that a short term bottom is in place, possibly with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Stronger recovery would be seen in this case. But after all, risk will now remain on the downside as long as 82.97 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Break of 71.09 will confirm this case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, even in case of another rise, focus will remain on reversal signal as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.
Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.24
Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 75.19
First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.25
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA?
Now just stop and think where the price of oil was 27 years ago and what kind of world we lived in 1983. Some things were different but some are the same. Ronald Regan was president and had just lifted wage and price controls on oil. It was the first year that the NYMEX had offered futures contracts on crude, the price per barrel was hovering around $30 a barrel. We were just emerging out of the of a 4 year recession that saw rapid job destruction and an unemployment topped out at 10.8%. Sound familiar.....Read the entire article.
