Pending Gulf Storm and Stronger Equities Sends Crude Oil Higher

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday over concerns of the pending Gulf storm and spillover strength from the equity markets. Today's rally allowed September to breakout of its sideways trading pattern of the past week and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.70 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.42. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.47.

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Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.579. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 4.662 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.108 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.719. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.479. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.288.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.34 as Investors unloaded the Dollar over worries about a sluggish U.S. economic recovery persist and confidence in the euro zone and nations abroad increase. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.64. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.22. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

Gold closed higher amidst increased interest in many commodities after some bullish corporate earnings reports boosted confidence in the economic recovery. August gold continues to consolidate above the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1210.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1158.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1201.20. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1210.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1158.30.

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Phil Flynn: Ben What A Bummer!

Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz? That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside.

Why tell us that the economic expansion is only proceeding at a moderate pace and only because it is being supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. We may be high but to some it felt like we were doing it on our own. Why tell us that the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction? And on top of that, you remind us that this is an important drag on household spending. Then you have to bring up that darn slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects.

Did you have to go and say that after two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially? Or that in all likelihood it is going to take a significant amount of time to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009.....Read the entire article.


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Back 2 Back Reversals for the Stock Market

The market continues to become quicker and fiercer as it move up and down 2+% on a regular basis This week we have seen some wild price swings due to earnings, events and the Fed’s which just makes trading that much more intense.

I have pointed out yesterday that this market only gives you a brief moment to take profits before it starts going wild shaking traders out of positions. This increased volatility is caused from a couple of things:

1. Traders/Investors know the financial system is still riddled with unethical practices/manipulation. This causes everyone to be extra jumpy/emotional and causes volume surges in the market as the herd starts to get greedy or fearful.
2. Volume overall on the buying side of things just isn’t there… I see some nice waves of buying but it doesn’t move the market up much… then it only takes a small wave of sellers for the market to drop....Investors are just scared to buy stocks and that is not a good thing…

I keep a close eye on the buying and selling volume for the NYSE as it tends to help pin tops and bottom within a 2-3 day period. In short when we get panic buying meaning 75%+ of volume is from buyers then I know the general public is jumping into the market buying everything up and that’s when the smart money starts to scale out of their position selling to these retail investors. These retail investors are buying on news and excitement much like what we are seeing now with earnings season. Stocks have run up for 5-10 days, as the smart money buys in on anticipation of good news, then the earnings are released which are better than expected and the stocks pop and drop. Well the pop higher on BIG volume are all the retail investors buying and are generally the last ones in. The smart money is quickly selling into this buying surge so they end up getting out at high prices.

My point here is that in general I see 4-6 of these panic buying or selling days a year which I find are tradable. The crazy part is that we have seen 11 of these panic days (both buying and selling) in just 8 weeks… We are seeing more selling than we did at the bottom in 2009! Something big is about to happen and I want to make sure we get a price of it once the moves starts.

Anyways, below is a chart of the SP500 showing how its trading under some key resistance levels. Today the market gapped up testing the 50 day moving average and above the 5 day moving average then sold down very strongly during Ben Bernanke’s speech. This is not a good sign for the overall health of the market.

On the commodities side of things we are not seeing much happening with gold or oil at the moment. Gold is still in a short term down. And gold took an $8 drop today when Ben Bernanke said inflation would remain low for an extended period of time.

As for crude oil, yesterday afternoon I pointed out to members that oil had a big run up on virtually no volume Tuesday and it would most likely give back those gains today. We saw this today with oil dropping from $78 down to 76.50 per barrel. Overall Oil looks like it wants to go higher but has some work to do before that can happen.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market remains choppy and we are getting more than normal news/events which are moving the market and this is causing extra noise and volatility for traders. Cash is king during volatile times and if you are doing some trades be sure to keep the positions small for another month or so.

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We Follow Up on Last Week's Euro Video

Earlier this week we produced a video on the Euro, Is the Euro on Shaky Ground?, making a case that the currency was very close, if not at its highs. Since then, we have had two significant events fall into place which made the dollar skyrocket against the euro.

This new video shows you exactly what transpired and where we are so far this week. We think you'll find it interesting and informative.

As always this video is free to watch and there is no need for registration. We would appreciate that if you have comments on this market that you please leave them for everyone to see.


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Crude Oil Bulls Take Back The Advantage Overnight....Here's Thursday's Numbers

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.70 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.57
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97

Crude oil's pivot point for Thursday is 77.11

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.70
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.47

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five trading sessions. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 4.662 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rally into the end of July. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.454 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.662
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 4.552

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.454
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last week's trading range. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.70 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.57. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.47.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it continues to consolidate above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.456. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above today's high crossing at 4.662 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.108 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.662. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.288. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.108.

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.46 signaling that a short term low has likely been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.64. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.38. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

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Gold closed lower on Wednesday and remains poised to extend the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1212.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1198.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1212.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Phil Flynn: Oh No, Not Again

I’d like to tell you that the supply report from the American Petroleum Institute matters and that we could go back to find love and happiness continuing to scalp oil in its very defined trading range. I would even like to tell you that todays Energy Information Agency report is going to matter as well. Yet the threat to our little trading range nirvana is being threatened by another potential storm down in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now shows that a tropical wave that we have been watching now has about a 70% chance to biome a hurricane and play havoc with production and imports into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC says that “STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FORTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUETO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.”

So there is a possibility that oil and other petroleum products may put in some hurricane premium. The Natural gas seems less worried as on shore production is rising and supplies are ample. Yet we cannot be complacent. The API showed less than exciting numbers showing crude down 241,000 barrels gas down 412,000 barrels and distillates rising by 241000 barrels. Of Course oil may also take its cue from Big Ben and no that is not the name of a hurricane but our name trusty Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Because oil has had a tendency to live and die with the fortunes of the stock market his words may inspire us. Of course the focus may be on the report that a few Fed Banks were pushed for a discount rate increase in an attempt to get credit flowing from banks too scared to lend money. If Ben says that he is considering this oil and stocks should get a quick boost.

Despite the storm threat we still feel oil will be locked in the twilight zone. Not really bearish and not really bullish. Call Phil for the best way to trade it and get signed up for a trial of his daily numbers. Jut call him at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.13. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday is 77.16

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was higher overnight and is trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.595. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.595 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rally into the end of July. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.454 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.659
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 4.558

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.454
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334

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Crude Rebounded Together with Equities Despite Mixed Housing Data

Crude oil rebounded in NY session Tuesday as driven by reversal in Wall Street. Corporate earnings results were disappointing while new home sales plunged to an 8 month low. However, investors looked forward for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony in Capitol Hill today. The market anticipated Bernanke would downplay recent weak data that might lead to a double dip recession. He would probably say economic slowdown is temporary and the Fed is ready for new stimulus measures if the economy worsens. The front month WTI contract settled at 77.58, up +0.88%, yesterday.

Wall Street opened lower in the morning session as corporate earnings were weaker than expected. Earnings of IBM and Texas Instruments, large tech stocks, disappointed as revenues missed market expectations. Goldman Sachs reported it net income tumbled -82% y/y to $613M, the lowest level since end 2008, in 2H10 as trading revenue declined more than anticipated. At the same time, Johnson & Johnson revised down its guidance. The company said earnings excluding specia items will be $4.65-4.75/share this year, compared with consensus of $4.80-4.9. The cut is due to a series of drug recalls. These were then upstaged by a powerful report from Apple Inc. Net income jumped +78% y/y to $3.25B in the third quarter as driven by strong iphone sales which generated $5.33B revenue on 8.4M units.

Economic data released yesterday was mixed. While housing starts slid -5.02% to 549K in June from a downwardly revised 578K in the prior month, building permits surprisingly soared +2.09% to 586K during the month. The market, however, chose to focus on the positive side and sent stocks higher. DJIA and S&P 500 ended the day +0.47% and +1.1% higher respectively. Crude oil also rose after the National Hurricane Centre said that a weather system over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Concerning oil inventory, the industry sponsored API said crude and gasoline inventories fell, 0.241 mmb and -0.412 mmb respectively in the week ended July 16. Distillate stockpile, however, rose +0.979 mmb during the week. The market currently forecasts the US Energy Department will report another week of draw for crude inventory but builds in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Gold gained +0.83% to settle at 1191.7 as driven by modest safe haven demand. The Hungarian government raised 35B forint from issuance of the 3-month bills, compared with the 45B forint originally planned. The average yield surged to 5.47%, the highest level in 19 weeks, as the talk with the IMF/EU suspended.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar and Gold All Close Higher

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.87. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09.

Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.605 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.108 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.605. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.288. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.108.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.51 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 83.51. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.51. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday and closed above the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1215.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1199.40. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1215.40. First support is today's low crossing at 1175.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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New Video: Is it Time to Buy Gold?

It would appear that the euphoria over gold has quickly diminished and many of gold's greatest proponents, who were calling for gold to go over $2,000 an ounce, appear to be disheartened and shell shocked by the recent sharp downturn in gold.

There's an old adage in trading and it goes like this, "they slide faster than they glide." This is true of all markets and what it means is they go down faster than they go up.

In our new video on gold, we share with you some of the thoughts we have right now on this market. We could be looking at some great buying opportunities if just a few components fall into place.

As always there is no charge and no registration required to watch this video.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.02. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday morning is 76.83

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.451. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.599 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.599
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.506

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285



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Successful Investing and Trading Boils Down to Predictability

Successful investing and trading boils down to predictability. There are many markets that are predictable for short and long periods of time, but it’s difficult to know how long such predictability will last.

Many would say that BP plc (BP)’s continued decline in the weeks and months after the oil spill was predictable, but then again, many were wrong with their immediate and “confident” doomsday predictions, so far, as they predicted the stock would continue sliding into single digits…totally missing the near 40% bounce off the lows in recent days.

The same kind of “confident” predictions were made about Greece and the euro sliding into oblivion and yet both have bounce substantially as it looks like the doomsday predictors were wrong…so far.

We don’t even need to go into these panic/disaster situations, a perfect example of how difficult predictability is Intel Corporation (INTC)’s blow out earnings the other night and how the stock was up big-time afterhours which led overnight futures to surge with many pundits calling for a major technology, not to mention overall stock market, rally to take place…no dice…never happened....INTC opened up huge then gradually down trended all day, their superior earnings seemingly already priced in.

Long story short: “confident” financial market prediction is for suckers.

There are far too many variables floating around for the news, let alone investors and traders, to ever be able to grasp and analyze everything well enough to make any kind of supremely confident predictions.

But that’s exactly why penny stocks should be considered as a predictable market. Let me explain...

This overly simplistic, hugely manipulated, much despised market niche is everything the rest of the financial markets are not: easily predictable.

Unlike forex, ETFs, futures, there are no hugely intelligent people working around the clock, considering every single potential profit angle and using complex algorithms to test out the reliability of various data sets and chart patterns.

Penny Stocks are only traded , promoted, manipulated and invested in by the dumbest, most greedy people in the world.

Sometimes Penny stock companies are either fraudulent or incompetent or both with short and longterm statistics proving that more than 99% of them utterly fail in every conceivable way.

In short, the players and the companies are predictable which is why I specialize in this underappreciated (thankfully) niche and why it’s not just possible/probable for me to earn index and everyone else crushing returns, it’s possible/probable for me to be able to teach you too….this ain’t rocket science folks.

Please do learn from this short video lesson series I’ve put together.

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Crude Oil Rises for a Second Day on Optimism Fuel Demand Will Increase

Crude oil rose for a second day in New York on optimism that China’s expanding economy and a forecast that U.S. crude supplies declined last week will show signs of improving fuel demand.
Oil gained as China’s stocks advanced for a second day as rising domestic consumption boosted the earnings of automakers. U.S. crude inventories probably dropped in the seven days ended July 16, the fourth consecutive week of declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed before a Department of Energy report tomorrow.

“China’s upside really is its restocking ability and its underlying economic growth, I can’t see too much weakness in that market,” said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $76.80 at 1:59 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $76.54. The August contract expires today.

The more active September contract increased 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $77.12 a barrel. Futures have declined 3.4 percent this year. The dollar was at $1.2972 per euro at 1:46 p.m. Singapore time from 1.2942 in New York yesterday. A weaker dollar increases the investment appeal of commodities like oil. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, rose 43.85, or 1.8 percent, to 2,519.28 as of 1:19 p.m. local time, set for the highest since June 28.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Closes and Consolidates Above 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.95. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.470. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.620 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.108 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.620. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.288. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.108.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 83.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.68. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

Gold closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1199.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1176.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Phil Flynn: When Irish Eyes Are Crying

A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength."

Moody says that Ireland’s weakening debt affordability, lower economic growth prospects due to the severe downturn in the banking and real estate sectors, as well as liabilities from the bailout of the banking sector all contributed to the downgrade. At first oil broke on this news as it was feared that this downgrade might hit Europe and what is perceived as Euro Zone stability. Yet oil came back as Moody's at the same time lifted the ratings outlook on Irish government debt to stable from negative and said that the risks are now evenly balanced at the new lower rating standard.

Besides we all knew that Ireland was in danger of a downgrade in the first place. Don’t cry over spilled milk but I guess you can cry over spilled oil. The latest oil spill is in China.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Is the Euro on Shaky Ground?

In this short video we take an in depth look at the euro and its relationship to the US dollar. The recent sharp rally in the euro, up from the 1.19 level, may be coming to an end.

We look at several indicators that are close to confirming that this market may be set to head lower.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration.

Watch Is the Euro on Shaky Ground?


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.53. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 76.14

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.474. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.621 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.621
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923

Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.550

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

New Video: How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market

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This Weeks Gold, Crude Oil and SP500 Trading Patterns

It was an interesting options expiration week for equities that’s for sure. We saw some very choppy price action with large waves of buying and selling as the bulls and bears fought for control.

Both Gold and Oil closed lower for the week which is not a good sign considering the US Dollar dropped like a rock along with them. Below are a few of my charts

GLD – Gold ETF Price Action

Gold continues to pull back from the June highs. It looks as though it could form an ABC retrace pattern if the July 7th low is broken. If $1085 is broken we should see gold drop to $1065-75 level. On the GLD etf that would be around the $112.50 – $113.50 level. That should shake out the majority of weak positions and start to rally towards the $1250/60 level.

Crude Oil – USO Oil Fund

This is a weekly chart of oil which clearly shows how selling volume has risen and the trend since 2009 has gone up, sideways and is now heading back down. The bear flag forming on this weekly chart looks about ready for another leg down. Once that occurs we could see a test of the 2009 lows.

Using some "inter market" analysis crude oil tends to move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar. From a quick glance at the dollar chart is looks about ready to bounce which will send oil sharply lower. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next 2-3 weeks.

SP500 – SPY Index Fund

Friday we saw some the SP500 sell off on heavy volume after testing its 50 and 200 day moving averages which are key levels for trading and investors to take profits or add to their short positions in hope for another multi day sell off.

That being said, there is still a good change of higher prices and for all we know this could be the start of another multi month rally. While I am more inclined for us to play the down side this week I will not have a problem taking a long position if we start to see the market internals and breadth improve alone with bullish price action. I monitor the 60, 30 and 10 minute charts which allow me to get a feel for the overall short term trend and strength.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

Overall it looks like we could have a couple more days of weakness for stocks and commodities. The US Dollar is very much oversold and as of this writing it looks like its starting a small bounce. A rising dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold and oil along with the large multi national companies.

Equities sold off Friday with a slow grind down from 9:30 -4pm never putting in any type of bounce when looking at the 60 minute chart. The SP500 and other indexes are way over sold after Friday and I am expecting some follow through Monday as investors review the charts over the weekend and see what happened on Friday. That should cause another wave of selling in the morning as traders panic out of positions.

It’s going to be an exciting week for sure!

If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's trading analysis and trade alerts be sure to checkout The Gold And Oil Guy .Com.


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Crude Oil Drops a Fourth Day Amid Concern Slow Recovery Will Hurt Demand

Crude oil declined for a fourth day in New York after confidence among U.S. consumers slumped, adding to concerns a recovery in fuel demand may falter in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil dropped after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index for July fell to 66.5 from 76 in June, the lowest level since August. The gauge was projected to fall to 74, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil for August delivery dropped as much as 51 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $75.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $75.74 at 8:27 a.m. Sydney time. The contract fell 61 cents to $76.01 on July 16. Futures have declined 8.2 percent since the start of the year. U.S. equities dropped on July 16 after the slump in consumer confidence and lower than estimated revenue at companies from Bank of America Corp. to General Electric Co. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 2.9 percent.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week that its general economic index fell to 5.1 in July from 19.6 the prior month. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index declined to 5.1 this month, the lowest level since August 2009, from 8 in June. Brent crude oil for September settlement fell 72 cents, or 0.9 percent on July 16, to end the session at $75.37 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be reached at mshenk1@bloomberg.net Ben Sharples at bsharples@bloomberg.net


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