The Crude Oil Trader

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Bulls Make a Stand as Short Covering Takes Crude Oil, Markets Higher

The S&P 500 closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 1003.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1092.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1071.89. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1092.61. First support is today's low crossing at 1037.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1003.10.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.54. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.80. First support is today's low crossing at 70.76. Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday and tested the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1239.60 as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1209.40 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1242.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1210.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1209.40.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.73. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.85. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01.

Crude oil fell to its lowest price in seven weeks before a report forecast to show that U.S. inventories of crude increased as summer driving demand ebbs. The U.S. Energy Department will probably report today that crude stockpiles gained 300,000 barrels last week after three weeks of declines, a Bloomberg survey showed. Oil extended losses after the U.S. Commerce Department reported a smaller increase in durable goods orders than analysts had predicted.

“U.S. consumption is still very low; product inventories are sky-high,” said Tobias Merath, Zurich based head of commodity research at Credit Suisse Group AG. “In every market we’ve seen fears of a double dip recession and oil has been particularly affected.” Crude for October delivery declined as much as 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $71.10 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest since July 6. It traded for $71.36 as of 1:38 p.m. London time. Brent crude for October delivery dropped 20 cents to $72.18 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Figures from the Commerce Department showed that bookings increased 0.3 percent, compared with the 3 percent median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Excluding transportation equipment, demand unexpectedly fell. The Energy Department will issue its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. local time in Washington D.C. today. U.S. gasoline stockpiles probably declined 450,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 20, based on the median estimate from 18 analysts surveyed.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If October extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.44
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 72.00

First support is the overnight low crossing at 71.32
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Where is Gold and Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.

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OPEC Is Swimming In New Petro Dollars

OPEC's oil revenue is surging, again, and is set to continue growing through 2011 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2010 oil revenue is likely to be a cool $181 billion higher than that seen in 2009, which makes for a pretty nice rebound.

Rigzone:
Last year, OPEC revenue plummeted to its lowest since 2005, when total revenue exceeded $500B for the first time. EIA forecasts that OPEC members could earn $752B of net oil export revenues in 2010, and with expectations of a slightly higher average in 2011 oil prices, to earn $821B in 2011.

It might take a few years for OPEC to beat 2008's peak oil revenue, but future revenue forecasts could change dramatically should oil prices end up far higher than currently forecast.

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Phil Flynn: Dancing With Wolves

You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings.

I pointed out that if you sold oil earlier in the year you are making money now but you would have been down as well and given those profits back many times. If you were long you are losing money. Unlike past years when I advocated being long and hanging on or selling and hanging on this year you are better off not being a bull or bear you are better off being a wolf. Yes Wolf! That’s it! That’s what I have been trying to say! Yes I am bearish and I think oil will eventually breakout on the downside but that moment is being delayed mainly by global economic stimulus.....Read the entire article.

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If October extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.18
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 73.44

First support is the overnight low crossing at 72.02
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Monday, August 23, 2010

Crude Oil Falls a Fifth Day on Concern Over U.S. Supply Gains, Slowing Recovery

Oil declined for a fifth day after analysts estimated that U.S. inventories of crude rose last week and as the dollar gained against the euro because of concern the global economy is slowing. Oil dropped to the lowest in almost seven weeks yesterday as investors sought the relative safety of the U.S. currency before economic reports that may show the recovery is faltering. U.S. crude inventories probably increased last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“The price of oil dropped again, showing investor uncertainty over the future of the global economy, mainly that of the U.S.,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital Advisors in Seattle. “There just isn’t much positive in the news.” Crude for October delivery dropped as much as 56 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $72.54 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.79 at 1:02 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract lost 72 cents, or 1 percent, to $73.10, the lowest settlement price since July 6. Futures have fallen 8.3 percent since the start of the year.

The dollar rose to $1.2642 per euro at 1:03 p.m. in Singapore, from $1.2657 yesterday, after reaching $1.2621, the highest since July 13. A stronger U.S. currency reduces investor appetite for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Forecasts show sales of existing U.S. homes dropped 13.4 percent in July and gross domestic product growth slowed to a 1.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, down from 2.4 percent last month.....Read the entire article.

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Where is Gold and Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?