Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1089.49 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1143.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1116.75. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1089.49.

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends the decline off last week's high, August's low crossing at 70.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 78.04 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.19. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 78.04. First support last Friday's low crossing at 72.75. Second support is August's low crossing at 70.76.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.806 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.060. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.806. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.697.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday posting another new all time high as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. If December extends the rally off July's low, upside targets will now be hard to project following yesterday's rally to a new contract high. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1237.90 would confirm that a double top with June's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1290.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1255.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1237.90.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, March's low crossing at 80.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.53 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.96. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.53. First support is today's low crossing at 80.42. Second support is March's low crossing at 80.18.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV


Share

Which Came First, God or the Government?

From guest blogger Keith Schaefer at Oil and Gas Investment Bulletins.....

CEO Tom MacNeill likes to throw that line out to investors as he explains the opportunity at 49 North Resources Inc. (FNR-TSX). 49 North is a specialized venture capital company that is quickly morphing into a fast growing oil producer, with a twist. It’s focused solely on Saskatchewan. The map that illustrates his point shows a stark contrast between Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Alberta, the map has an abundance of oil and gas properties being developed. Moving east across the border in Saskatchewan is like falling off a cliff; there is a dramatic and immediate drop off in the amount of activity in oil and gas.

The productive oil and gas geology doesn’t stop on a dime like that, says MacNeill. He sees huge opportunity in that map. His theory is that 40 years of socialist governments in Saskatchewan have slowed the development of the province’s energy resources, but the new business friendly government of Premier Brad Wall has created a huge wealth of opportunity for energy entrepreneurs like himself. “This is early days (in resource development) in Saskatchewan. The only thing that’s held us up in Saskatchewan is politics. We are at Year 1 in a 50 year process. We have 50 years of upside,” he gushes.

“Use Alberta as an analogue,” he adds, noting that Saskatchewan already has more conventional oil production than Alberta. “We do 500,000 bopd of conventional production. Alberta production peaked in 1983, 40 years after (the original) Leduc #1 (well). We are 40-50 years away from Peak Oil (in Saskatchewan).” 49 North has a suite of mining and oil and gas assets, but has recently been increasing its energy weighting. As is typical of these public venture capital companies, it trades at a 40% discount to its Net Asset Value.

MacNeill has invested directly in several oil and gas land packages, and has production net to 49 North of 80 bopd now, but hopes to have an exit rate of 1000 bopd from its 10 net section land package that produces from the Viking formation “This is not exploration in the Viking. We can do 16 wells per section and we have 10 sections.” 49 North had 100% success on the five wells it drilled last quarter. MacNeill joint ventures or buys out many small operators, and helps them get big fast. “We have so many opportunities, we could make swiss cheese out of this province” he says. “We’ve done a lot of geophysical work in this province. We have a lot of proprietary information from mineral exploration work we’ve done in our mining assets, and there are great synergies there (for oil and gas).”


Get Keith's Hottest Investment Plays in North America: Oil and Gas Bulletin


Share

EIA: Financial News for Independent Energy Companies

Independent energy companies (including oil and gas producers in addition to oilfield companies) reported a 77 percent increase in income in the second quarter of 2010 (Q210) to $3.4 billion.

Oil and gas producer revenues increased sharply along with crude and natural gas prices, and earnings rebounded from losses in Q209 to their highest second quarter level in the 2005-2010 period.

Oilfield company revenue and earnings increased modestly in Q209 but remained well below the Q2 average over 2005-2010.

Ethanol producer revenues increased and earnings crossed into the black after losses in Q209.

Read the entire EIA article.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

Share

Phil Flynn: The Recession Is Over!

The recession is over! Now don’t you feel better? Well at least for a day the stock market sure did and oil and the products decided to go along for the ride as the market once again found a reason to believe. Still it appears that the joy that we are seeing in the market place is not all about the fact that the recession is over but a growing belief in the market place that the Federal Reserve is going to lay the ground work at todays FOMC meeting for another round of quantitative easing.

Oh sure, the expectations are not high that the Fed will do anything today but based on market action, if they do not drop any quantitative ease hints, the market will be a bit disappointed. Still the markets that seemed to be showing the most anticipation of Fed action such as gold and treasury bonds, seem to be a bit toppy after their recent spine tingling surge as they seem to be either getting ready to sell the fact after buying the rumor or perhaps they feel that the Fed may just disappoint them.

The oil market also has to look to the Fed as it is the Fed that is keeping the market from collapsing. While the petroleum market may see a big drop in supply this week due to transitory issues such as the Enbridge pipeline outage and the double trisect of tropical storms and hurricanes the truth is that we have more than ample supply. That is being reflected in an increasingly bearish outlook by crude option players. Oil may start to worry more about geo-political issues as we move forward.....Read the entire article.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

New Video: Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?

Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders.

We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide support should the gold market pull back from its current levels.

In this new video we are going to be focusing on our "Trade Triangle" technology and what it means for traders. We will explore short term, intermediate term, and long term trading in this precious metal. This will all be done using our "Trade Triangles."

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We hope that you enjoy the video and that you share your comments.

Watch "Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?"

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

Share

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 21st

Crude oil was lower overnight and remains poised to renew last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If October extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 71.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.48
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27

First support is last Friday's decline crossing at 72.75
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.53

Why Diversification Doesn't Work

Share

Where is Gold and Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD

Share

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher, near the session highs and hit multi week highs today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently as the bulls have "climbed a wall of worry." While the months of September and October have been historically unkind to the stock market bulls, the indexes are getting through the month of September in good shape, so far. My bias is that if there were to be serious market stock market turbulence during the months of September and October, it would have most likely occurred in early September.

Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $74.76 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $78.04 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 19.1 cents at $3.833 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage and regained some downside momentum today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.144.

Gold futures closed up $3.60 at $1,281.10 today. Prices closed near mid range today and did poke to another fresh contract and all time record high today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today helped to boost gold. The fact that volatility in the gold market has not increased significantly with prices now in uncharted territory is a bullish clue and suggests the modest uptrend in prices can continue. Gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 3 points at 81.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.31.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Whiting Petroleum Launches $350M Note Offer

Whiting Petroleum Corp. said Monday it has launched a public offering of $350 million in senior subordinated notes to repay other outstanding debt. The notes will be due in 2018. Banc of America Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities and Wells Fargo Securities are the joint book-running managers.

Whiting explores for oil, and natural gas in several parts of the U.S. Its largest projects are in North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas. The shares rose $3.50, or 3.8 percent, to $96.28 in regular trading before the announcement. In extended trading, they added 3.8 percent to $96.28.

Courtesy The Associated Press


Share

Diversification Doesn't Work Anymore

Find out how Wall Street has sold the myth of safety in diversification for years to unsuspecting investors everywhere.

Now you can learn from this timely 10 page report that exposes the myth of diversification and how it can cripple your financial future if you do it the Wall Street way.

This Is Not About Derivatives
Before I go any further, we are not talking about exotic derivatives, the kind that tanked the economy and sent a financial tsunami through Wall Street. No, we’re talking about the major markets, mainstream shares, the kind of shares you hear and read about every day.

We Have A Solution
In this in depth report on diversification, you will learn how one simple adjustment can easily open up the money spigots and turn the tables on Wall Street. This one simple adjustment can put your account in the black faster than you can go to our website. This new solution, which we fully reveal, can turn your retirement account into the financial powerhouse that it deserves to be.

A Non Wall Street Portfolio
Also included in the report is a model portfolio that proves that diversification can work when it's done the right way. Using the Wall Street method of diversification you would have lost close to 30% of your money! In the “Global Strategy Portfolio” included in the report, you would have made a 23% return on your money during the exact same timeframe. That’s an over 50% swing in just 30 short months. In the report we show you not only how to achieve these results, but we also share the rules that you need to follow in order to get the exact same results in half the time, with less risk.

What Is The Cost?
If you do nothing and don’t download this special report, it could cost you thousands of dollars in losses in your portfolio over the next few months. However, if you call or click on the link below, the report is free of charge along with our “Global Strategy Portfolio.”

ACT NOW AND RECEIVE THIS REPORT BY EMAIL

Call or click to receive your personal copy of this timely report and it can be in your hands in the next 3 minutes. This report is free of charge and there is no obligation. We guarantee that this report on diversification will have you laughing all the way to the bank.

Click HERE to get your report immediately!



Share