Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Sept. 22nd

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.81. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If November extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 73.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.33 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.81
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.33

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 75.34

First support is last Friday's decline crossing at 74.10
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Crude Oil Rises on Forecast of Supply Decline, Weaker Dollar

Crude oil rose before a report forecast to show U.S. inventories dropped for a third week and as the dollar fell, spurring investor demand for commodities. The Energy Department will probably say that supplies slipped 1.75 million barrels, according to the median of 18 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency versus six major trading partners, slid to the lowest level since March 17. “It makes sense that prices are heading higher this morning because today’s report is expected to show a sizable draw in crude oil stocks,” said Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant.

Crude oil for November delivery rose 94 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $75.91 a barrel at 9:02 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 6 percent from a year ago. Brent crude oil for November settlement gained 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $78.79 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The Dollar Index slipped 0.7 percent to 79.844. The U.S. currency traded at $1.3374 per euro, down 0.8 percent from yesterday, after touching $1.3418 per euro, the lowest level since April 17.....Read the entire article.

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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Stephanie Link: How to Buy Energy Stocks

Stephanie Link, director of research for TheStreet, reveals her trade on BP now that the oil leak is dead and unveils her ideal energy portfolio.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1089.49 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1143.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1116.75. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1089.49.

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends the decline off last week's high, August's low crossing at 70.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 78.04 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.19. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 78.04. First support last Friday's low crossing at 72.75. Second support is August's low crossing at 70.76.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.806 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.060. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.806. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.697.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday posting another new all time high as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. If December extends the rally off July's low, upside targets will now be hard to project following yesterday's rally to a new contract high. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1237.90 would confirm that a double top with June's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1290.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1255.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1237.90.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, March's low crossing at 80.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.53 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.96. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.53. First support is today's low crossing at 80.42. Second support is March's low crossing at 80.18.

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Which Came First, God or the Government?

From guest blogger Keith Schaefer at Oil and Gas Investment Bulletins.....

CEO Tom MacNeill likes to throw that line out to investors as he explains the opportunity at 49 North Resources Inc. (FNR-TSX). 49 North is a specialized venture capital company that is quickly morphing into a fast growing oil producer, with a twist. It’s focused solely on Saskatchewan. The map that illustrates his point shows a stark contrast between Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Alberta, the map has an abundance of oil and gas properties being developed. Moving east across the border in Saskatchewan is like falling off a cliff; there is a dramatic and immediate drop off in the amount of activity in oil and gas.

The productive oil and gas geology doesn’t stop on a dime like that, says MacNeill. He sees huge opportunity in that map. His theory is that 40 years of socialist governments in Saskatchewan have slowed the development of the province’s energy resources, but the new business friendly government of Premier Brad Wall has created a huge wealth of opportunity for energy entrepreneurs like himself. “This is early days (in resource development) in Saskatchewan. The only thing that’s held us up in Saskatchewan is politics. We are at Year 1 in a 50 year process. We have 50 years of upside,” he gushes.

“Use Alberta as an analogue,” he adds, noting that Saskatchewan already has more conventional oil production than Alberta. “We do 500,000 bopd of conventional production. Alberta production peaked in 1983, 40 years after (the original) Leduc #1 (well). We are 40-50 years away from Peak Oil (in Saskatchewan).” 49 North has a suite of mining and oil and gas assets, but has recently been increasing its energy weighting. As is typical of these public venture capital companies, it trades at a 40% discount to its Net Asset Value.

MacNeill has invested directly in several oil and gas land packages, and has production net to 49 North of 80 bopd now, but hopes to have an exit rate of 1000 bopd from its 10 net section land package that produces from the Viking formation “This is not exploration in the Viking. We can do 16 wells per section and we have 10 sections.” 49 North had 100% success on the five wells it drilled last quarter. MacNeill joint ventures or buys out many small operators, and helps them get big fast. “We have so many opportunities, we could make swiss cheese out of this province” he says. “We’ve done a lot of geophysical work in this province. We have a lot of proprietary information from mineral exploration work we’ve done in our mining assets, and there are great synergies there (for oil and gas).”


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EIA: Financial News for Independent Energy Companies

Independent energy companies (including oil and gas producers in addition to oilfield companies) reported a 77 percent increase in income in the second quarter of 2010 (Q210) to $3.4 billion.

Oil and gas producer revenues increased sharply along with crude and natural gas prices, and earnings rebounded from losses in Q209 to their highest second quarter level in the 2005-2010 period.

Oilfield company revenue and earnings increased modestly in Q209 but remained well below the Q2 average over 2005-2010.

Ethanol producer revenues increased and earnings crossed into the black after losses in Q209.


Read the entire EIA article.

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Phil Flynn: The Recession Is Over!

The recession is over! Now don’t you feel better? Well at least for a day the stock market sure did and oil and the products decided to go along for the ride as the market once again found a reason to believe. Still it appears that the joy that we are seeing in the market place is not all about the fact that the recession is over but a growing belief in the market place that the Federal Reserve is going to lay the ground work at todays FOMC meeting for another round of quantitative easing.

Oh sure, the expectations are not high that the Fed will do anything today but based on market action, if they do not drop any quantitative ease hints, the market will be a bit disappointed. Still the markets that seemed to be showing the most anticipation of Fed action such as gold and treasury bonds, seem to be a bit toppy after their recent spine tingling surge as they seem to be either getting ready to sell the fact after buying the rumor or perhaps they feel that the Fed may just disappoint them.

The oil market also has to look to the Fed as it is the Fed that is keeping the market from collapsing. While the petroleum market may see a big drop in supply this week due to transitory issues such as the Enbridge pipeline outage and the double trisect of tropical storms and hurricanes the truth is that we have more than ample supply. That is being reflected in an increasingly bearish outlook by crude option players. Oil may start to worry more about geo-political issues as we move forward.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?

Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders.

We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide support should the gold market pull back from its current levels.

In this new video we are going to be focusing on our "Trade Triangle" technology and what it means for traders. We will explore short term, intermediate term, and long term trading in this precious metal. This will all be done using our "Trade Triangles."

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We hope that you enjoy the video and that you share your comments.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 21st

Crude oil was lower overnight and remains poised to renew last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If October extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 71.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.48
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27

First support is last Friday's decline crossing at 72.75
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.53

Why Diversification Doesn't Work

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Monday, September 20, 2010

Where is Gold and Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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