Saturday, May 8, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's sharp fall last week indicates that rise from 69.50 is completed at 87.15 on a double top reversal pattern (87.05/87.15). Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to test 69.50 key support next. On the upside, above 78.19 resistance will argue that a temporary bottom is formed and bring consolidations. But we'd expect strong resistance at double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.55) to limit upside and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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