Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Crude Oil Moving Lower, Below 20 Day Moving Average


May crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.61.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.61.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 47.77.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 44.72.

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And because the crude oil/dollar trade is on........
The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55.
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

10:30 AM ET. Mar 27 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 356.5M)

....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.6M; previous +3.3M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 214.5M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.1M; previous -1.14M)

....................Distillate Stocks (previous 143.9M)

....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous -1.58M)

....................Refinery Usage (expected 82.2%; previous 82%)

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