Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Crude Oil Falls Overnight, Trading Below 20 Day Moving Average


May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.50.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 50.00.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would signal that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.59.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 10.90 points. at 819.50 as of 5:50 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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4:30 PM ET........Apr 3 API Oil Industry Report

..................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.3M; previous +3.27M)

..................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -451K)

..................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -200K; previous +1.77M)

..................Refinery Runs (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

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