Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Dollar Closes Below 10 Day Moving Average, Sets Up Higher Open For Crude Oil Wednesday

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.34.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77.

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The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term. However, today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.85 tempers the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33

First support is today's low crossing at 79.70
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.871
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500


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