Sunday, September 27, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Still Bearish Signals Point to Lower Prices

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. If November extends this week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 67.66, July's low crossing at 61.38 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.27
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.16

First support is today's low crossing at 65.05
Second support is July's low crossing at 61.38

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Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.260 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.04
Second resistance the 38% retracement level at 4.08

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.26

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The December Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.71. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.22
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 75.73

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