Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 78.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 74.57 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But downside should be contained by 71.55 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally. Hence, we'd look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise. However, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
While consolidation from 5.12 may extend further, note that with 4.351 support intact, we'd expect to consolidation to be relatively brief and maintain the short term bullish outlook. Above 4.75 minor resistance will flip intraday bias for 5.12 first. break will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.351 will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 3.94 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.