Thursday, October 22, 2009

Crude Oil Trades Lower as Dollar Bears Fail to Defend $75


Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 84.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.59 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level at 84.64

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.59

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 6.170 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.280 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.989
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 6.170

First support is today's low crossing at 5.580
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.280

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.36 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.79
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.36

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.09
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 73.39

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