Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's remains soft today and is struggling around 75.57 support. As noted before, with 80.51 resistance intact, short term risks remain on the downside, below 75.57 will bring deeper decline towards 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52 next.
In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.60) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Here is the charts!
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Near term outlook in natural gas is quite mixed for the moment. But after all, with 5.318 resistance, we'd slightly favor the case that it has topped out already and favor another fall. Below 4.157 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 5.318 at 3.52 first.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The break of 55 days EMA, even though it's brief so far, suggests that rebound from 2.409 is possibly just a corrective rise only and may have completed after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Deeper decline could now be seen for a retest of 2.409 support first. On the upside, break of 5.318 resistance is needed to revive the case that Natural gas has bottomed in medium to longer term.....Here are the charts!
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