Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen. But after all, risk will continue to remain on the downside as long as 80.51 resistance holds and fall from 82.00 is still in favor to continue. Below 72.39 will target 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52 next and then trend line support at 70.76.

In the bigger picture, the resumption of fall from 82.00 last week was inline with our preferred bearish view. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.76) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Here is the charts!

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas fails below 5.318 again and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. While some more retreat might be seen, as recent price actions suggest natural gas is consolidations only, hence, we'd look forward to an upside break out. Above 5.318 will confirm that whole rebound from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Further will now remain in favor as long as 4.157 support holds, towards 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will indicate dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Here is the charts!

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