With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, crude oil's recovery from 69.50 might have completed at 75.69 already. Break of 72.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 69.50 first. Break will confirm decline resumption towards 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 75.69 will turn focus to 78.04 minor resistance. Break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.
In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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