Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Crude Oil Bulls Lose Round Two, Hold Slight Advantage For Wednesday


Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off this month's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday evening's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.26

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.15
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.78
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.33

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last Friday's breakout below the lower boundary of this month's trading range, which crosses at 5.060. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.281 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday evening is 4.856

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.221.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.281.

First support is today's low crossing at 4.773
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction off last Friday's high but remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.04 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is today's low crossing at 80.15
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.04



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