Weaker Dollar Pushes Crude Oil Higher, Bears Still have The Advantage

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 73.38

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.41

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.547 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.170

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.417

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.73
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07

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