Despite Sell Off in Oil, Bulls Maintain a Slight Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as a result of today's bearish jobs data, which leaves any economic recovery in question. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish despite today's decline signaling that a low might be near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Thursday evening is 74.19

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43

First support is today's low crossing at 72.42
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.71

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.407. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point for natural gas is 5.398

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday and above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.12
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32

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