Last week's price action of natural gas futures suggested there is little concern among buyers about the potential for a more active hurricane season disrupting available gas supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Gas prices bounced around the $4 per Mcf level most of the week, responding to news about the upcoming revision to the EIA's 914 survey of domestic gas production and gas storage inventory data rather than recognition that the latest Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team had boosted their estimate of the number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
There is little concern among gas buyers about the potential for a more active hurricane season disrupting available gas supply from the Gulf of Mexico. In its traditional early spring forecast revision, the hurricane forecasting team, led by Professors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, lifted its forecast for the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and storm days in each category that can be expected this hurricane season into the upper end of its earlier December 9th forecasted ranges.
The forecasting team now expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. If the forecast materializes, this year's storm season will resemble the hurricane seasons of 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2008. As we know, those years included some of the worst hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast and Southeast United States in recent years, Katrina, Rita, Ike, Ivan and Isabelle to name a few.
To reinforce the potential for a significantly more active and potentially destructive storm season, the CSU team provided its estimates for hurricane landfalls. The CSU team predicts that a major hurricane has a 45% chance of hitting somewhere along the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula, which compares to a 31% average for the last century. The probability of a major hurricane landing somewhere along the Gulf Coast extending from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville.....Read the entire article.
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