Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.87. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.77.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is today's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 80.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.18. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.


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