Crude oil continues to struggle around mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 86.92 and has possibly formed a temporary top with 4 hours MACD staying below 4 hours MACD. Some consolidations would likely be seen for the moment with risk of pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.11). But break of 78.56 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. Sustained trading above 86.92 will target 90 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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