Prepare for Unknown Price Action as New Highs are Reached

The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks. The NQ is very close to these new high levels already. Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.

This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows. It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least. We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally. It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big. We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately. Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months. We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research. We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.

Now, our modeling tools are suggesting we could be setting up for a pretty big increase in volatility over the next 2~3 months with the potential for bigger price rotation into May/June 2019. As we are reading our modeling system results, the key elements are that price will achieve new all-time highs, the price will increase in volatility and Gold should begin an upside price move over the next 2~5+ weeks. The move in Gold suggests one of two things may happen, or both. The US Dollar may weaken or the US stock market may correct a bit based on some economic event or outside foreign economic event.

Either way, the move in Gold suggests that increased volatility is almost a sure thing over the next 60 to 90 days. The only reason Gold would rise is if there is some increased fear factor throughout the planet in regards to the protection of assets and fear of some unknown event. Therefore, if our analysis is correct and Gold does rise as we have indicated, then something is about to create a big increase in volatility.

The key to all of this is that the ES and NQ will move into NEW HIGH territory before this volatility increase begins to become apparent.

This ES Weekly chart shows just how close the ES (S&P500 Futures) are too new all-time highs. The ES needs to climb another 41 points (+1.41%) before it touches the previous all-time high levels. That is really only one of two good upside days. Once it breaks the 2947 level, then the 3000 psychological level becomes a very real target.

This NQ Weekly chart shows that the NQ is really just inches away from breaking to new all-time highs. The NQ only needs to rally 24.50 points (+0.31%) before the 7731 level is breached. We believe this move will happen very early this week and we could see the NQ push all the way above the 8000 level in short order. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting 9130 and 9625 levels may become the ultimate highs – but it is still very early to tell at this stage of our research.

Back in July and August 2018, we started warning that the end of 2018 and all of 2019 were going to be very good years for skilled traders. We’ve seen a nearly 3800+ point price swing in the NQ and a +1200 point price swing in the ES. Let’s face it, folks, these are very big moves and if you had been capable of trading these moves efficiently, this is the type of price rotation that makes millionaires out of average traders.

Get ready, because the rest of 2019 and almost all of 2020 are going to be just as exciting to trade so be sure to get our trade signals. We’ll see you on the other side of “new all-time highs” for the U.S. Stock market here soon.

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Chris Vermeulen

Watch the Financial Sector for the Next Topping Pattern

A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets. Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis? Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.

Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place. The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows. Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making. If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.

Let’s start off by taking a look at these Monthly charts…

This first Monthly Bank Of America chart is best at showing the price channel (in YELLOW) as well as a key Fibonacci price level (highlighted by the MAGENTA line). We’ve also highlighted a price zone with a green shaded box that we believe is key support/resistance for the current price trend.

As you can see from this chart, since early February 2018, the overall trend has shifted into a sideways bearish trend. The price recovery from December 2018 was impressive, yes, but it is still rotating within this sideways/bearish price channel. Our belief is that this YELLOW upper price channel level MUST be broken in order for the price to continue higher at this point. Any failure to accomplish this will result in a price reversal that could precipitate a 30% price decline in the value of BAC. In other words, “it is do-or-die time – again”.

This Monthly JPM chart shows a similar pattern, yet the price channel is a bit more narrow visually. We have almost the same setup in JPM as we do in BAC. The same channels, the same type of Fibonacci price support level, the same type of sideways price support zone (the shaded box) and the same overall setup. As traders, we have to watch for these types of setup and be aware of the risks that could unfold with a collapse of the financial sector over the next few weeks.

We believe the next few weeks could be critical for the financial sector and for the overall markets. If weakness hits the financial sector as global growth continues to stagnate we could enter a period where the global perception of the future 12~24 months may change. Right now, perception has been relatively optimistic in the global stock markets. Most traders have been optimistic that the markets will recover and a US/China trade deal will get settled. The biggest concern has been the EU and the growth of the European countries.

What if that suddenly changed?

We are not saying it will or that we know anything special about this setup. We are just suggesting that the Monthly charts, above, are suggesting that price will either break above this upper price channel or fail to break this level and move lower. We are suggesting that, as skilled traders, we need to be acutely aware of the risks within the financial sector right now and prepare for either outcome.

This last chart, a Weekly FAS chart, shows a more detailed view of this same price rotation and sideways expanding wedge/channel formation. Pay very close attention to the shaded support channel shown with the GREEN BOX on this chart. Any price rotation within this level should be considered “within a support channel” and not a real risk initially. We want to see price break above the upper price channel fairly quickly, within the next 2 to 5+ weeks, and we can to see it establish a new high (above $78 on this chart) to confirm a new bullish price trend. Once this happens, we’ll be watching for further price rotation and setups. If it fails to happen, then the RED DOWN ARROW is the most likely outcome given the current price setup.

Any downside price move in the Financial sector would have to be associated with some decreased future expectations by investors. Thus, our bigger concern is that something is lurking just below the surface right now that could pull the floor out from under this sector. Is it a surprise Fed rate increase? Is it some news from the EU? Is it a sudden increase in credit defaults? What is the “other shoe” – so to say.

Be prepared. If all goes well, then we’ll know within a few more weeks if the upside price rally will continue or if we need to start digging for clues as to why the support for the financial sector is eroding. This really is a “do or die” setup in the financial sector and we urge all traders to pay very close attention to this sector going forward. We believe it will be the leading sector for any major price weakness across the global markets.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond? Please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future. Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and incredible research for all our members and followers.

Chris Vermeulen

Are You Ready For The Next Move in Natural Gas?

Historically, April has been a pretty consistent upside opportunity in Natural Gas for over 20 years. Over the past 24+ years, the upside opportunity in Natural Gas has been accurate over 68% of the time with the average upside potential ranging from $0.60 to $0.85. With Natural Gas sitting down near recent lows and seeing as though we are still fairly early in the month of April, our researchers believe the opportunity still exists for some quick profits in UNG with an upside move from below $23.95 to a target level of $26 to $28 (roughly +9 to +18%).

The downside risk is rather limited with clear support visible below the recent lows (near $22.75) and a historical likelihood of any further downside price swing being below 33%. Our research team believes an opportunity to establish new longs in UNG below the current Daily price gap (below $23.50) would be ideal.

Historical data mining shows that average upside rallies at this time of the year are typically ranging just below $1. Thus, the upside potential for this move being about +9 to +12% should be sufficient for quick profits. Skilled traders can hold a small portion of the trade for any potential run beyond these initial target levels, but we caution traders that $28.50 to $29.00 is an area of strong resistance. Our last trade in natural gas with subscribers netted us 30% profit in UGAZ within 10 days back in February.

Our research team is still waiting for the Daily Upside Gap to fill with prices below $23.50 before we look to enter any new trades. We have been patiently waiting for the bottom in Natural Gas to form knowing that we have this trade setup with a relatively high success rate. Keep an eye on Natural Gas and look for any good entries below $23.50 in UNG – the deeper the better. Our Fibonacci modeling systems are already suggesting a bottom has set up and any upside price move above $24.30 will likely prompt a bigger rally towards $26 to $28.

Are you ready for this next move? Want to know how we can help you find and execute better trades? 55 years of combined experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text.

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Chris Vermeulen

Crude Oil Nearing Resistance - Could a New Top Form Here?

The recent recovery in Crude Oil has, partially, been based on increasing expectations of a global economic recovery taking place and the continued news that the US/China will work out a trade deal. Crude inventories. Just last week U.S. Crude Oil inventories came in at +7.2 million barrels vs. expectations of -425,000 barrels. Additionally, concerns in Syria and Libya are pushing prices a bit higher as well. Whenever there are supply concerns or uncertainty out of this region, prices tend to rise.

The facts remain very dynamic for Oil. The U.S. is continuing to produce more and more oil and is expected to become a “net exporter” of oil this year. Economic issues will, eventually, resolve themselves, yet we don’t know the final outcome of these trade deals or how the economy will react to any milestones that are required within the final settlement. And, again, these continuing issues in Libya, Syria and near this region are likely to cause some increased levels of uncertainty over the next 60+ days.

Our researchers, at The Technical Traders, believe the $65.00 level will act as resistance to this current upswing. We believe the upside price move may continue to levels near $67.50 before weakening and beginning a topping formation. We believe our expectation that precious metals will bottom near April 21~24 is key to understanding the dynamics of this move in oil. As long as FEAR does not enter the market, then Oil will likely react to impulse factors exclusively related to oil. Once Gold breaks out above $1500 per ounce, our belief is that oil will react to fear factors related to some broader economic event driving investors into precious metals.

Therefore, we are urging traders to be cautious of the upside price swing in Oil at the moment. Yes, we believe the upside will continue for at least another 10~15 days (possibly changing direction near April 21~24). Yes, we believe current global dynamics support moderately higher Oil prices. Yet, we feel these factors may change within the next 20~45 days as we believe some increased fear levels are about to hit the global markets.

At this point, we would urge Bullish Oil traders to start to become more cautious of any downside risks and begin to prepare for increased volatility. We don’t have any real clue as to how this move will setup, but we do believe our other research support increased volatility within the Crude Oil markets and the potential for a new downside price swing before any further upside move sets up.

Please take a minute to review this research post from January 31, 2019 > Learning From our SP500, Gold and Oil Research & Profit.

We’ve recently launched a new technology solution for our members that delivers our incredible research and trading solutions. You can also visit The Technical Traders Free Research to learn more about our research team and past article. 20129 is going to continue to be an incredible year for skilled traders – you won’t want to miss these big moves that are setting up.

Chris Vermeulen

Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm the Next Big Move

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the U.S. stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the U.S. stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

As we continue to advise our clients that the upside pricing cycle in the U.S. stock market is being underestimated, see this research post: we also believe that increased volatility and price rotation will continue to drive larger rotations in price before the final breakout upside move takes place. We want to continue to warn traders that we still don’t have any confirmed upside breakout with price continuing to stay within this price channel in the Russell 2000. Eventually, when and if the price does breakout to the upside, we will have a very clear indication that continued higher prices and a larger upside move is happening. Until then, we need to stay cautious about the types and levels of rotation that continue within the markets.

Recently, volatility has started to increase as can be seen in this VIX chart. If the Russell 2000 is not able to break this trend channel with this current upside price move, then we fully expect continued price rotation in the U.S. stock markets and another increase in the VIX as this rotation takes place. The NQ recently rotated downward by nearly 4% while historical volatility continues to narrow. When volatility diminishes in extended price trends, we’ve learned to expect aggressive price rotation can become more of a concern. We expect the VIX to spike above 16~18 on moderate volatility as we get closer to the cycle inflection date near June/July 2019.

Volatility Index – VIX chart by TradingView

Overall, our researchers believe the upside price bias in the U.S. stock market will continue for another 30+ days as our research and predictions regarding precious metals and the longer term equities price cycles continue to play out. Skilled traders need to be aware that this upside price bias may include larger price rotation and volatility as we get closer to the May/June/July 2019 cycle inflection points. Stay aware of the risks as 4~6%+ price rotations should be expected over the next 30+ days throughout this upside price bias.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond? Please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future. Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and unique opportunities.