Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 51.69 a barrel while trading up $1.80 this Friday afternoon currently trading at $53 a barrel right near a 6 week high as the chart structure is starting to improve. I have been advising traders to sit on the sidelines and avoid this market as volatility is extremely high but it does look to me that prices are bottoming here in the short term still waiting for a breakout to occur while maintaining the proper risk management as I do need to see better chart structure as volatility is too high for my blood at the current time.

The U.S dollar is still right near 11 year highs as that market is also trending sideways giving little direction for crude oil as prices look to consolidate that massive move down in my opinion over the next several months as I think volatility is going to remain extremely high but avoid this market and look for another trend that’s just beginning. Crude oil has been the leader in recent months to the downside so when you start to see a bottoming formation possibly occur now you’re starting to see many of the other commodities like grains and metals move higher but only time will tell to see if this is a dead cat bounce or the long term bottom being created
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the April contract are up $13 this afternoon in New York currently trading at $1,233 an ounce after settling last Friday around $1,235 basically unchanged for the trading week still right near 4 week lows is I’m recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as the trend is currently mixed. Gold futures are trading below their 20 but just barely above their 100 day moving average as the S&P 500 had a terrific week as the Dow Jones cracked 18,000 to the upside as that’s where the interest lies currently as the next major level of support is between $1,180 – $1,220 but sit on the sidelines as the chart structure is absolutely terrible at the current time.

If you have followed any of my previous blogs I constantly stress the fact to avoid markets that are choppy as I think the success rate is very low unless you are some type of day trader but I hold positions overnight so look for another market that is beginning to trend and keep an eye on gold as I don’t think we will be trading this market for quite some time. The U.S dollar is still right near 11 year high and that’s always pessimistic commodities in general especially the precious metals but at the current time I just don’t have an opinion on this market as I think we will chop around in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract finished up around $1.50 a barrel closing around 52.00 after settling last Friday at 48.24 experiencing one of the best rallies we’ve seen it many months as prices are trading far above their 20 day moving average as I have not been able to say that in 6 months but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at $64 a barrel as I am neutral this market as I was recommending anybody who was short to place your stop at the 10 day high which was 49.20 as that stop was very beneficial as prices have rallied over $3 since that level was hit.

Volatility in crude oil is absolutely astronomical with prices moving 5/7% on a daily basis so please avoid this market as the volatility and the risk is out of control at the current time so wait for better chart structure to develop allowing you to place tighter stops minimizing risk and that could take some time as I don’t see the volatility slowing down anytime soon.

The U.S dollar was up 120 points today but had no effect on crude oil prices as crude is now trading right near a 4 week high, however the chart structure is terrible as the 10 day low is about a $9,000 risk from today’s price levels as that is too much risk in my opinion, however keep a close eye on this market because in a couple of days that could change as a trader I’m strictly a trend follower and if this market starts going up I will be bullish and if the market starts to go down breaking $44 I will be bearish but right now I can’t stress enough to look at other markets and avoid this market like the plague.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Awful

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Gold futures in the April contract are down $27 on Friday afternoon in New York due to the fact of a very strong U.S monthly unemployment report pushing prices to a 3 week low as I’ve been recommending a long position in gold when prices broke above 1,245 and if you took that trade it’s time to exit today as prices are at a 3 week low as prices now are trading below their 20 but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed. Gold futures settled in the April contract at 1,279 while currently trading at 1,236 down about $43 for the trading week as the Dow Jones was up over 800 points this week as money is flowing out of the precious metals and into equities once again.

Silver futures are also down $.50 as the U.S dollar is up a whopping 100 points this Friday putting pressure on many of the commodities once again as extreme volatility is happening throughout the commodity and stock sectors sosit on the sidelines in this market as I’m disappointed that we gave back our profits and actually ended up losing slightly on this trade but that’s what happens sometimes when you trade a system as you must stick to the rules as this market fizzled out very quickly.

Gold prices have rallied from 1,130 which was around the contract low all the way above 1,300 which happened just a couple weeks ago and now has sold off about $70 as the trend is mixed and I do not like choppy markets as we probably will be sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for at least 4 to 6 weeks waiting for better chart structure to develop because the risk is too high as there is no trend as choppy markets are extremely difficult to trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract were up $3 a barrel having one of its best days in months trading at 47.50 a barrel and trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in months while still below its 100 day moving average and looks like a possible bottom could be in place. If you’re still short this market I strongly suggest you place stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 49.20 risking $1.80 from today’s price levels.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 45.59 currently trading at 47.50 up about $2 as prices actually hit new lows in yesterday’s trade as there are rumors about the new Saudi Arabian King stirring up some controversy possibly cutting production, however I truly believe that we just saw massive short covering but stick to the rules and keep your stop at the proper level and if you are stopped out move on and look at another market that is trending.

All markets come to an end that’s just the fact as I’ve seen many people reenter the market several times after having a successful run only to give back all their profits so if you are stopped out move on as there are many other markets to look at the current time as this was one of the best trends in recent memory but sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,277 up around $21 an ounce with extreme volatility after selling off more than $30 in Thursday’s trade while settling last Friday at 1,293 going out this Friday afternoon around 1,276 finishing down $17 in a wild trading week. Gold futures topped out slightly above $1,300 as profit taking ensued as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending a bullish position and if you took that original trade place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now yesterday’s low at 1,252 risking around $24 from today’s price levels or $2,400 risk per contract plus slippage and commission.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors now prefer gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide.

Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as money is finally starting to come out of the S&P 500 sending money flows back into the precious metals also sending high volatility which I think is here to stay especially with all of the worldwide problems
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Trading 101...."When Do You Enter A Trade"

What are your rules to initiate a trade on the long or short side of the commodity market? I have been asked this question many times throughout my career and my opinion is simply to buy on a 20-25 day high breakout in price on a closing basis only or sell on a 20-25 day low breakout to the downside also on a closing basis. Many times the price will break the 25 day high and sell off later in the day only to have your trade be negative very quickly.

I would rather buy the commodity at a higher price on the close because that gives me more confidence that the market has truly broken out. However there are more ways to skin a cat and this is not the only answer because some other trading systems might rely on different breakout rules that have also been reliable.

Remember always keeping a 1%-2% risk loss on any given trade therefore minimizing risks because the entry system I use always goes with the trend because I have learned over the course of time the trend is truly your friend in the long run. I also look for tight chart structure meaning a tight trading range over a period of time with relatively low volatility. I try to stay away from a crazy market that hit a 25 day high in 2 trading sessions versus the 25 high that actually took 25 days to create.

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Oil Hits Five Week High, Nears $80

Oil prices gained for a fourth straight session, climbing to their highest level in more than five weeks as cold weather swept across the country and the dollar weakened. Crude oil for February delivery rose 72 cents, or nearly 1%, to settle at $78.77 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 18, when prices settled at $79.58 a barrel.

Cooler than normal temperatures have supported rising oil prices, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group. He added that temperatures in the Northeast have been about five degrees lower than average and are expected to remain that way for the near term.

Prices were also boosted by a softer dollar, which edged lower against its major rivals. Crude oil, like other commodities, is priced in dollars, and a weaker greenback can help support prices.....Read the entire post.

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