International Fight Club

By Grant Williams

Sometimes the sand shifts beneath your feet without your realizing it. Other times you can see it happening.

In November 1975, at a summit meeting in the picturesque Château de Rambouillet near Paris, leaders of the six richest industrial powers gathered to form a rather exclusive, though completely informal, little club.

Takeo Miki, Prime Minister of Japan; President Gerald Ford of the United States; the United Kingdom’s PM, Harold Wilson; West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt; and Aldo Moro, Prime Minister of Italy, joined Valéry Giscard d’Estang, the French President, in establishing what was tagged the “Group of Six” or, as it would become known in today’s AOW (abbreviation obsessed world), the G-6.

A year later, upset at being left out of the club, Canada applied for and was granted membership after a month long pledge drive in which Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau had to shotgun a six pack of Molson, ride a moose bareback through the streets of Montreal, and ring the doorbell at the White House and run away.

Thus was borne the Group of Seven (G-7 — see how this works? Pretty clever, huh?).

The G-7 would meet informally (at enormous taxpayer expense) in a few dive bars like the Dorado Beach Resort in Puerto Rico, the Schaumburg Palace in Bonn, the Akasaka Palace in Tokyo, and the San Giorgio Maggiore in Venice; and at these gatherings the attendees would eat gourmet meals, quaff the finest wines, and discuss how to make the world a better, fairer place ….

Anyway, the little club remained closed to outsiders until, in 1997, UK PM Tony Blair and US President Bill Clinton invited Russian President Boris Yeltsin to pop along to Naples to observe the G-7 on the understanding that full membership in the club would be forthcoming.

To nobody’s surprise, in 1998 Russia participated in its first informal gathering, and, hey presto, the club was now....? Come on....? Yes, you’ve got it, the G-8!

Among its members, in 2012 the G-8 accounted for 50.1% of nominal global GDP:

Source: United Nations

The G-8 essentially encompasses the top third of the world….

Source: Wikipedia

Anyway, amidst the ongoing turmoil in and around Ukraine and in amongst the threats and counter-threats this past week, was a movement, led by Britain’s David Cameron, to punish Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, by telling him he was no longer part of this very exclusive club:

(UK Daily Telegraph): The Group of Seven big economies (G7) should cancel a meeting with Russia in June, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Monday as world leaders kicked off a two-day nuclear security summit in The Hague.

“We should be clear there’s not going to be a G8 summit this year in Russia,” Mr Cameron told reporters ahead of a hastily-convened meeting with other leaders of the G7 — a group of industrialised nations that excludes Russia, which joined in 1998 to form the G8.

The other six members of the G-7 rallied round Cameron and agreed that the upcoming summit in Sochi, scheduled for June, would be moved to the bright lights of Brussels and Russia would be excluded — though they were at pains to point out that the exclusion would be temporary.

Having been slapped across the back of the legs, it was time for Putin to make the promises necessary to reingratiate himself with the giants of the G-7, like François Hollande, who talked tough as Russian troops casually wandered into sensitive military installations in Crimea, meeting precisely zero resistance:

(Reuters): “We have to also think about other sanctions if there is an escalation,” French President Francois Hollande said before the summit. “If there are illegitimate claims, if there are troop operations, if there are threats, then there will be other sanctions.”

However, just when the G-7 had Vlad the Invader right where they wanted him, he outmaneuvered them in a manner that could potentially shift those sands I was talking about in previously unfathomable ways….

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A free weekly newsletter by Grant Williams, a highly respected financial expert and current portfolio and strategy advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.

The article Things That Make You Go Hmmm: Fight Club was originally published at Mauldin Economics

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Exxon Shares Fall after Big Earnings Miss

ExxonMobil's (XOM) $1.55 EPS, which fell far short of expectations, was the company's lowest EPS since Sept. 2010. (Q2 results)

Earned $6.86B on revenue of $106.47B billion after earning $15.9B on revenue of $127.36B in the year ago quarter when results were inflated by the sale of the Japanese lubricants division; removing those effects, net income fell 19%.

Upstream earnings were $6.3B, down 24.5% year over year, downstream earnings were $396M, down from $6.6B a year ago which included a $5.3 billion gain related to the Japan sale. Oil and gas production fell 1.9%.

Read the entire ExxonMobil earnings report



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America’s Addiction to Foreign Uranium

America’s Addiction to Foreign Uranium

Posted courtesy of our trading partners at Casey Research.........

What most Americans don't realize is that dependence on foreign oil isn't the main obstacle to US energy autonomy. If you think America's energy supply issues begin and end with the Middle East, think again. One of the most critical sources of foreign energy is due to dry up this year, and the results could mean spiking electricity prices across the country.


In 2011, the US used 4,128 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity. Nuclear power provided 790.2 billion kWh, or 19% of the total electrical output in the US. Few people know that one in five US households is powered by nuclear energy, and that the price of that nuclear power has been artificially stabilized. Unfortunately for us, the vast majority of the fuel used for powering our homes must be imported.
In the chart below, you see where most of our uranium comes from:

The overwhelming majority of that Russian uranium comes from a 20-year-old agreement called "Megatons to Megawatts" that allows weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be converted to reactor-grade, low enriched uranium (LEU).

By December 2012, "Megatons to Megawatts" had produced 13,603 metric tons of LEU for US consumption and provided the fuel for nearly half of the US electricity generated from nuclear power.
In December 2013, that agreement expires, and Russia will be free to put its uranium out on the open market and demand higher prices. With 17 nuclear reactors in China and 20 in India – not to mention Japan, France, Germany, and others all vying for nuclear fuel – competitive bids are poised to drive prices higher, and early investors stand to make spectacular gains.

If this information is news to you, you are not alone. While the mainstream media focus on the US's "Middle Eastern energy dependence," the real story remains unnoticed. That's why Casey Research invited the field's top experts – including former US Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham and Chairman Emeritus of the UK Atomic Energy Authority Lady Barbara Judge – for a frank discussion of what we think is America's greatest energy challenge.

Join us on Tuesday, May 21 at 2 p.m. EDT for the premiere of The Myth of American Energy Independence: Is Nuclear the Ultimate Contrarian Investment? to learn how the end of "Megatons to "Megawatts" will affect the US energy sector and how you can position yourself for outsized profits. Attendance is free – click here to register.



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EIA: The Strait of Hormuz is the World's Most Important oil Transit Choke Point

The Strait of Hormuz (shown in the oval on the map), which is located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Hormuz is the world's most important oil choke point due to its daily oil flow of almost 17 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2011, up from between 15.5-16.0 million bbl/d in 2009-2010. Flows through the Strait in 2011 were roughly 35% of all seaborne traded oil, or almost 20% of oil traded worldwide.

On average, 14 crude oil tankers per day passed through the Strait in 2011, with a corresponding amount of empty tankers entering to pick up new cargos. More than 85% of these crude oil exports went to Asian markets, with Japan, India, South Korea, and China representing the largest destinations.
At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two mile buffer zone. The Strait is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons.

Several alternatives are potentially available to move oil from the Persian Gulf region without transiting Hormuz, but they are limited in capacity, in many cases are not currently operating or operable, and generally engender higher transport costs and logistical challenges.

• Alternate routes include the 745-mile Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, across Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq to the Red Sea. The East-West Pipeline has a nameplate capacity of about 5 million bbl/d, with current movements estimated at about 2 million bbl/d.
• The Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which runs parallel to the Petroline to the Red Sea, has a 290,000-bbl/d capacity.
• Additional oil could also be pumped north via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea, but volumes have been limited by the closure of the Strategic Pipeline linking north and south Iraq.
• The United Arab Emirates is also completing the 1.5 million bbl/d Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline that will cross the emirate of Abu Dhabi and end at the port of Fujairah just south of the Strait.
• Other alternate routes could include the deactivated 1.65-million bbl/d Iraqi Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (IPSA) and the deactivated 0.5 million-bbl/d Tapline to Lebanon.

EIA's World Oil Transit Chokepoints analysis brief contains additional information about other chokepoints, and the Middle East & North Africa overview contains additional information about countries in the region.

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EIA Report: World Wide Energy Use Expected to Increase 53% by 2035

In a statement released on Monday the EIA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, predicts that the worlds energy consumption will increase by as much as 53% by 2035. in China and India.

Todays report, the 2011 International Energy Outlook, predicts that consumption of energy from renewable and alternative sources will be the fastest growing in the energy sector. Reaching 15% of the world energy use by 2035 compared to 10% in 2008. But fossil fuels will still be the world's dominant source, accounting for about 78% of the world's energy use in 2035.

The EIA said it expects oil prices to remain high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035, but added that consumption of oil will still grow during that period.

The EIA also predicts that petroleum prices are "very sensitive to both supply and demand conditions" and that prices could fall to $50 per barrel or approach $200 per barrel, depending in part of the rate of economic growth in developing countries.

The EIA report projects changes in world energy markets between 2008 and 2035. It doesn't take into account the potential impacts of policy changes that have not yet been implemented.

One area that will be particularly sensitive to policy actions: competition between coal, natural gas, and renewable sources to meet electricity demand, said Howard Gruenspecht, the acting EIA administrator, during a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The report projects, absent policy changes, tremendous growth in coal consumption by China and to a lesser extent India and other developing countries. That growth is a key driver of a projected increase in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, which EIA predicted would jump about 43% between 2008 and 2035. China's carbon emissions were somewhat higher than those of the U.S. in 2008, but are projected to be "more than twice as high" as U.S. emissions by 2035, Gruenspecht said.

Natural gas consumption was projected to grow at a faster rate than any other type of fossil fuel, thanks in part to increased supply from the U.S. and elsewhere. Consumption will grow from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035, the report predicted.

Use of nuclear power increases slightly in the EIA projections, but "the full extent of the withdrawal of government support for nuclear power is uncertain" in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi crisis in Japan, Gruenspecht said.

Gruenspecht said that due to budget cuts impacting the EIA, the outlook report might not be released next year. "That's a little bit of question mark in the present resource environment."


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Crude Oil Increases as Improving Economic Indicators Point to Higher Fuel Demand

Crude oil climbed on speculation improving economic indicators in the U.S. and Japan, the world’s first and third biggest crude oil consuming counties, may be a sign of  increased fuel demand. Oil rose as much as 1.1 percent after a report showed gross domestic product in Japan grew more than forecast in the third quarter as consumer spending increased. U.S. retail sales last month increased the most since March, a sign consumers may play a bigger role in the economic recovery.

“Some good economic numbers came out today, which gave us a boost,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. “The market is moving on sentiment and perception. The headlines of any given day will decide the market’s move.” Crude oil for December delivery advanced 54 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $85.42 a barrel at 9:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures rose as much as 89 cents to $85.77.

Brent crude oil for December settlement increased 67 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $87.01 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The December Brent contract expires today. More actively traded January oil rose 63 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $87.16. Japan’s economy increased an annualized 3.9 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent gain.......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days on Optimism U.S. Demand May Gain

Crude oil climbed for the first time in three days after the Japanese economy grew faster than expected, stoking speculation Asia’s fuel demand will increase. Futures retraced some of last week’s 2.3 percent decline after Japan’s gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent increase.

“It gives further evidence of that Asian recovery,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “You’ve seen the recovery in China and the positive spill over affects for those economies in the Asian region. Up until now, you haven’t really seen it as much in Japan.”

December crude futures added as much as 50 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $85.38 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $85.33 at 11:53 a.m. Sydney time. Crude fell $2.93 to $84.88 on Nov. 12, the lowest since Nov. 3. Prices are up 7.6 percent this year.
Chinese oil processing rose to a record last month after refiners increased production to ease a domestic fuel shortage. Plants refined 37 million metric tons, or about 8.8 million barrels a day, in October, up 12 percent from a year earlier, China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said Nov. 11......Read the entire article.


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Phil Flynn: The Race for the Bottom

The gloves are coming off as around the globe the currency tensions are heating up and the printing presses are coming out because when it comes to currencies, everyone wants to be on the bottom. In fact things are getting so heated that the International Monetary Fund is warning that governments are risking a currency war if they try to use exchange rates to solve domestic problems which they say if translated into action would represent a very serious risk to the global economy.

 I said yesterday, in a currency war the country with the most ink wins as countries try to print themselves to prosperity in a global race for the bottom. Japan raised the stakes yesterday by hitting critics of their intervention policy by showing the world that there is more than one way to try to intervene in your currency.

The Bank of Japan, by cutting their interest rate to 0%-0.1% and buying 60 billion dollars in assets, was sendng a message of hypocrisy to the critics of their intervention. Now if the Japanese are going to print more money what choice does the Untied State have? The markets believe that.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: A Trillion Reasons To Buy Oil May Not Be Enough

A trillion dollars in printed money and oil still can’t close higher! Ok, well maybe it hasn’t happened yet but the rumors of another trillion in quantities easing from the Fed as well as a multitude of other factors sent gold soaring to an alltime high and other commodities soaring.

What also seemed to help was this perception that with the reelection of Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan's in the Democratic Party of Japan leadership, it could be less likely that Japan will intervene in the yen. WRONG!!! The yen seemed to taunt the prime minster hitting a 15 year high against the dollar and only then the Japanese finally said enough is enough and intervened in the yen for the first time in 6 years.

Reuters News quoted Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda as saying, "Japan intervened in the currency market as the impact of the yen's rise on the economy could not be ignored and that Japan would continue to take action, but that it had been acting alone.” Reuters said that estimates on how much yen selling Japan had done in Asia varied widely.

Dealers cited talk of 300-500 billion yen ($3.6 billion-$6 billion) although some reports put it closer to 100 billion yen. Of course prior to the intervention and while gold and silver were flying high, oil sagged on the fact that.....Read the entire article.

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Oil Is Little Changed Amid Speculation of Weak Demand Recovery

Crude oil was little changed near a two month low amid speculation that demand will be slow to recover. Oil fell as much as 1.8 percent after reports showed declining industrial output in Europe and the smallest improvement this year in consumer confidence in Japan, the world’s third largest oil consumer. Equities rallied and the dollar weakened from a two month high, supporting prices. “You won’t have a truly healthy crude market and be able to argue for crude going above $80 until you see the developed market, North America, Europe and Asia, turn around,” said Roger Read, an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder in Houston. He forecast oil would trade in a $60 to $80 range for the next few months.

Crude oil for January delivery rose 5 cents to $69.92 a barrel at 10:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 57 percent this year. Earlier, futures touched $68.59, the lowest since Oct. 5. European industrial output fell for the first time in six months in October, led by a slump in consumer goods. Employment declined in the third quarter. The Tankan business confidence index in Japan showed large companies planned deeper spending cuts to protect earnings under threat from the yen, which climbed to a 14 month high against the dollar in November.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Rises as Growth in China, Japan Buoys Demand Outlook

Crude oil rose above $67 a barrel in New York as manufacturing expanded in China and Japan, buoying hopes for a rebound in fuel demand.

Oil is nonetheless heading for its first quarterly decline this year amid swelling fuel inventories in the U.S. The Energy Department will probably report that supplies of crude and fuel increased last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Chinese manufacturing rose for a sixth month in September and Japanese industrial output climbed for a sixth time in August.

“Emerging markets have definitely been driving the demand recovery,” said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo. “Industrial production has increased. We will see a gradual improvement in the economy, but prices have got ahead of the physical fundamentals”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Declines a Second Day After Fuel Inventories Increase

Crude oil for September delivery declined a second day in New York as rising U.S. fuel inventories dampened optimism for a swift rebound in demand. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. rose in the week to July 17, the sixth consecutive
increase, while crude supplies fell, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. Japan’s oil imports fell for an eighth month in June. “Demand is weak, and spare capacity is the largest it’s ever been,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.....Complete Story

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Oil and Gas Rise on Dollar Weakness, OPEC Wants $80 a Barrel

"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Dollar Drop Boosts Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel and gasoline climbed for the first time in five days as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodity futures as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as the U.S. currency slipped the most in a month against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve will temper expectations for an interest rate increase this year. An Energy Department report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil supplies fell.....Complete Story

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"OPEC Would Like Oil at $80 a Barrel for Investments"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would like oil to reach a price level of $80 a barrel so that most investments in the industry can go ahead, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said Tuesday. "We would like to reach the $80 per barrel, so that investment could be met," he said during a press conference after meeting with European Union officials. He said the current level of between $60 a barrel.....Complete Story

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"Japan May End $1.5 Billion Venezuela Loan on Seizures"
Japan may cancel a planned $1.5 billion loan for Venezuela’s El Palito and Puerto La Cruz oil refineries after the South American nation seized Japanese company assets, said a person familiar with the situation. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation, or JBIC, is reviewing loans for the upgrades after Venezuela took over Japanese iron and chemicals assets and fell behind on payments to oil service contractors, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the review isn’t public.....Complete Story

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