Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Below Key Retracement Levels


Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.20 as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.95
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.86

First support is today's low crossing at 60.01
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below April's low crossing at 3.52. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.947 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.72
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95

First support is today's low crossing at 3.34
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16


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US Moves to Shackle Oil Speculators

The solution to perceived market manipulation is overt market manipulation. That's what federal regulators are saying with Tuesday's announcement that they will consider curtailing "excessive speculation" in energy markets. The move comes in response to last year's spike in oil prices, which soared to a record $145 a barrel a year ago next week and pushed gasoline prices above $4 at the pump in many parts of the country. Since the start of this year.....Complete Story

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New Video For The DOW...."Perception Indicates That the Bear is Back"


We have just finished a new video on the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DOW) that we would like to share with you.

This may be a short video, but I think you’ll get a lot out it. We will analyze what’s going on right now in the DOW, how it has developed over the last six months, and where we expect the DOW to go in the next six months.

As we have discussed before, perception is everything in the marketplace. We believe that perception is beginning to change in this market and the bears are back.

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Oil Falls for Sixth Day on Forecasts U.S. Gasoline Supply Rose


Crude oil fell for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since December, before a government report that is forecast to show U.S. fuel inventories increased. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably climbed, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Yesterday, the industry funded American Petroleum Institute said stockpiles of gasoline rose.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Due For Consolidation Day


Crude oil was lower overnight and spiked below the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off last week's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 63.12

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.19
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.98

First support is the overnight low crossing at 61.87
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Natural Closes Lower, Sets up Likely Lower Open For Wednesday


Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below April's low crossing at 3.52 as it extended the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.971 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.77
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.97

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.37
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16

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Pickens: Time To Use Natural Gas

Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens talks to Fox Business on the slip in crude oil and the reasoning behind the delay in his massive wind farm project.



Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


Oil Falls as Equities Drop, Report Shows Gasoline Supply Gain


Crude oil fell to a six week low as equities slumped and an industry report showed an increase in gasoline inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country. Oil dropped after the American Petroleum Institute said gasoline supplies rose 767,000 barrels to 212.4 million last week. U.S. stocks fell on concern technology spending will slow and second-quarter earnings will fail to justify a four month rally in equities.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.44 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.78
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.44

First support is today's low crossing at 62.35
Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 62.20

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EIA Sees Slightly Smaller Drop in US Natural Gas Production for 2009


The U.S. Energy Information Administration has revised its forecast for U.S. natural gas production, the decline of which has been lessened for 2009 compared to the governmental agency's prediction last month. In June 2009, the EIA estimated that U.S. natural gas production would fall by 1.1% in 2009 and 2.6% in 2010. According to its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA now expects total U.S. marketed natural gas production to drop by 0.6% in 2009.....Complete Story

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