Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Increase in Fuel Supplies

Crude oil fell in New York after an industry report showed an increase in fuel supplies in the U.S., adding to signs demand has yet to recover in the world’s largest energy consumer.Oil pared yesterday’s 2.6 percent gain after a report from the industry funded American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. gasoline stockpiles climbed the most since January. The Energy Department report today is expected to show increases in the nation’s fuel inventories, according to a Bloomberg News survey.


“We’ve been expecting a demand recovery but we still haven’t seen much of a justification in the supply demand fundamentals,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The underlying supply-demand profile still suggests the market could be vulnerable to a pullback”.....Read the entire article

Finding the Right Oil Plays Is Easier than You Think

It's a mistake that too many people make. I'm not immune, by any means. In fact, one of the first trades I ever made proved to be an important lesson. The mistake was simple. Several years ago, I was star struck by a big name in natural gas and thought buying this company would prove a win win deal for me. A few months later, I swallowed my pride and ended up taking the big loss.

Believe me, it's a mistake I won't make again, and the good (if any) that comes from a loss is that the bad deals end up being the ones we learn from. So what has me thinking about a painful trade from the past? A reader of mine recently shared what he called, in his words, a 'hugely successful trading story.' At first, I was elated. . . I'm always in the mood to hear a good story from one of my readers. Yet the moment he told me the name of the company.....Read the entire article

The Chinese Oil Demand Teaser

One day China’s oil demand is bad and the next, good. Welcome to another mystery from The Middle Kingdom. Yesterday oil prices were pressured on reports of bulging inventories in China and weak demand. Platts reported that Chinese oil demand in August slid 5.4% from July. Platts said that China's implied oil demand totaled 33.02 million metric tons in August versus 34.92 million metric tons in July. Oil refiners in China are reporting that demand is still weak. Reuter’s news reported that Chinese oil company Sinopec had sales of refined oil products still lower than one year ago. Reuters says that despite a moderate inventory draw in August, China's diesel inventories had been building up faster than gasoline had in past months, reflecting the slower consumption for the main transportation fuel used by Chinese industry and trucks.....Read the entire article

New Video: The Reason Why Gold Hasn’t Skyrocketed

With the printing presses in full printing mode, many people are questioning why gold prices haven’t gone higher....much higher.

In our new video, we explain some of the subtle market cycles that are at play right now in this market. These short term cycles have been the dominant force in gold all year and appear to be still in control of price action.

We believe the longer term upward trend in gold is very much intact, short term we could see more of a trading range that has a downward bias. We think when you watch this video you will get a much better understanding about the rhythm of this market.

If we are correct, you will see some amazing opportunities that we believe will be presented to traders in Q4. In fact, if everything goes according to plan we could all be looking at some very nice Christmas/holiday profits.

The video is easy to follow and I think you’ll learn a whole lot about cyclic price action in the gold market.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and of course it's Free with our compliments and you are not required to register to view this video.

Enjoy the video and please leave a comment to let us know what you think about the video and the direction of gold.

Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days as the dollar declined, bolstering the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Oil climbed as much as 2.9 percent as the U.S. currency slipped to $1.4821 per euro, its weakest level since Sept. 23, 2008. Net crude oil imports by China, Asia’s biggest energy consuming country, increased 18 percent to 17.92 million metric tons in August, the second highest level on record.

“More than anything else, we are seeing a reaction to the incredible weakness of the dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Yesterday, the dollar strengthened and oil fell more than $2. Now the dollar’s plunged to the lowest level against the euro in a year and look what’s happened”.....Read the entire article

Oil Options Hit Highs as Verleger Predicts 44% Plunge

Oil traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a plunge in crude prices. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. are 14 percent larger than a year ago and OPEC is pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs, according to the International Energy Agency.

While the recovery from the first global recession since World War II pushed oil up 62 percent this year to $72.04 a barrel in New York, growth alone isn’t likely to erode the glut by the end of next year because production exceeds demand, data from the Paris based IEA shows. A drop in prices would penalize companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc and exporters.....Read entire article

Market Report: Oil Prices Set to Decline Amid Global Econ Matters

As the dollar world turns. Oil prices are heading lower ahead of a big week in global economic matters. Not only will the G-20 meet in Pittsburgh to try to assess what went wrong with the global economy and try to fix it, but also the Fed meets to decide whether or not it's time to remove some of the props that have been lifting the global markets. And the question for oil traders is whether or not the dollar can find love and happiness in a world gone mad.

Once again the dollar is the key driver moving the crude market. Traders are covering the dollar on fear that perhaps the G-20 may do something to support the dollar or that the Fed may slow down its purchases of treasuries. Of course the dollar has been oversold and it's possible that we are getting to the point where the carry trade has gotten.....Read the entire article

New Video: Two Major Technical Forces Are About to Collide in the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has seen remarkable recovery from the lows that were seen earlier this year. However, all of that may come to an end as we fast approach a strategic level for this market. There are two major technical indicators that are colliding at a crucial point and time. Unless you’re aware of these indicators, it could be very expensive.

In today’s short video, I explain both the technical indicators we are discussing and also the important time frame that we are just about to enter.

I think you will find today’s video not only interesting, but also educational.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today, otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.

Just Click Here to enjoy the video and please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think!

Bloomberg Technical Analysis: N.Y. Natural Gas Set to Decline Below $3

Natural gas futures, which jumped 28 percent last week, may revisit seven year lows after surging into an “overbought” area of resistance between $3.58 and $3.87 per million British thermal units, according to a technical analysis by Barclays Capital. Gas tumbled 82 percent from a high of $13.694 per million Btu in July 2008 to touch $2.409 on Sept. 4. Gas then surged 57 percent through Sept. 18. The futures have entered a resistance zone and the downtrend is likely to resume, MacNeil Curry, a New York based analyst at Barclays, said in an interview. “We’re around the high end of this resistance zone and things are overbought,” Curry said. “This is still an environment where bounces should be sold.....Read the entire article

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Weekly Summary From Crude Oil Trading Small Spec.

From Guest analyst Rich Olney.....

Weekly Summary for Sunday 9/20/09
Nov Crude Oil finished the week up 4% or 2.77 points to close at 72.49. Nat Gas finished the week up 21.6% closing at 3.778. The SnP cash closed the week up 2.5% closing at 1068.30. The USD lingers around support at 76 closing the week at 76.67. Gold finished the week up 4 points or up 1/2% at 1009.40. This week we get the FED MTG on Wed.

The commercials increased their net short position on crude this last week. It increased from -133,519 to -143,033 which is the second highest net short position this year. The high is 145,499 this year so we are at a yearly extreme. The Nat Gas net long position is at 40,512 which is the highest it has been since the commercials went net long last May.

For inventories crude oil imports have been decreasing and inputs into refineries have been increasing which means lower crude oil inventories. However Gasoline and Heating oil inventories are increasing. For Nat Gas current inventories are at 3458 and there are about 7 -10 more injections left before nat gas winter demand ramps up. If Nat Gas injections were to match last year then that would mean an additional 524 bcf of injections. Here are the balance of last years injections:

9/18 +54 bcf
9/25 +82 bcf
10/2 +87 bcf
10/9 +81 bcf
10/16 +71 bcf
10/23 +49 bcf
10/30 +23 bcf
11/6 +54 bcf
11/13 +23 bcf
11/20 -55 bcf

For technicals on crude support lies at 68. There is resistance at 73 which has held back crude for two weeks. If crude closes above 73 then it can make a run at the highs at 75.89 where there is strong resistance. For Natty it needs to close above the down trend line and above the rally high at 3.90. If natty can close above 3.90 two session in a row then that should confirm higher prices are in the cards. However Natty to close above the trend line first.....Read the entire post with charts!

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