Oil Rises for Second Day on Recovery Outlook, Iran Tensions

Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation the global economy’s gradual recovery will increase demand for fuel and energy. A Conference Board report tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest oil user, may show consumer confidence is at its highest in a year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices also rose after Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, conducted missile tests days before meeting with western officials over a previously secret nuclear facility.

Crude oil for November delivery gained as much as 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $66.49 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $66.39 at 8:09 a.m. in Sydney. The contract rose 13 cents to $66.02 on Sept. 25, trimming its loss for the week to 8.9 percent. Prices climbed from $65.05, an eight week low, after U.S. President Barack Obama said a new nuclear plant Iran is building shows the Islamist nation is.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Still Bearish Signals Point to Lower Prices

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. If November extends this week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 67.66, July's low crossing at 61.38 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.27
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.16

First support is today's low crossing at 65.05
Second support is July's low crossing at 61.38

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Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.260 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.04
Second resistance the 38% retracement level at 4.08

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.26

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The December Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.71. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.22
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 75.73

Serious Near Term Chart Damage Inflicted on Crude Oil

Crude oil closed down $3.05 at $65.92 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a fresh nine week low. Serious near term chart damage was inflicted today as prices saw a big and bearish downside "breakout" from the recent trading range at higher price levels. Crude bears now have the near term technical advantage.

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Natural gas closed up 14.0 cents at $4.894 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh six week high. Prices are in a two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls gained upside technical momentum today, but have more work to do to suggest prices can continue to trend higher.

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The U.S. dollar index closed up 80 points at 77.09 today. Prices closed near the session high today on a short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.00.

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Natural Gas Advances in New York on Signs of Rebound in Demand

Natural gas futures rose in New York for the third straight day amid speculation that a strengthening economy and colder U.S. weather will increase demand and begin to draw down near record high inventories. A government report today showed an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims, a sign the economy is pulling out of the recession. Demand for gas starts to rise in November as temperatures fall.

“The question is how hard are we going to hit storage?” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston. The market has priced in record high storage and is now focused on the prospect that a cold U.S. winter will lead to inventory draw downs, she said. Natural gas for October delivery rose 9.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to close at $3.955 per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fuel was trading at $3.774 before the supply report was released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.....Read the entire article

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Oil Falls to a 1-Month Low on Larger Than Expected Supply Gains

Crude oil fell to a one month low after a government report of a larger than forecast gain in U.S. fuel supplies signaled that a glut is forming in the world’s biggest energy consuming country. U.S. gasoline stockpiles surged 5.41 million barrels last week, more than 10 times what was forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.96 million barrels, almost double what was estimated. Crude oil supplies also climbed in the week ended Sept. 18.

“We had three major stock builds and increases in the year on year surplus,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “We are testing support and will have to see if we can break out of the recent range”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Prices Weaker Going Into Thursday Trading

Crude oil prices are weaker early today and trading has turned choppy. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $69.00 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the September low of $67.66. Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.90. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 69.39

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The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.63 and then at 76.95. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 76.04 and then at 75.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.89. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

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December S&P 500: The shorter term moving averages (4, 9 and 18 day) are still bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.

Today, shorter term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,051.80 and then at 1,040.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's and last week's high of 1,070.50 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,075.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra- day Market Rating: 5.0 Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,056.00.

Pivot:--------------- 1,063.30
1st Support:-------- 1,051.10
2nd Support:-------- 1,043.30
1st Resistance:----- 1,071.10
2nd Resistance:----- 1,083.30

Crude Oil Falls a Second Day on Gains in U.S. Fuel Stockpiles

Crude oil declined for a second day after a U.S. government report showed a larger than expected increase in fuel stockpiles in the world’s largest energy consuming nation. Gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. surged 5.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. That’s more than the 500,000 barrel increase forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Diesel and heating oil inventories jumped almost 3 million barrels, double what was expected, and crude oil stockpiles also climbed.

“If products aren’t moving, then there’s no demand for crude,” Sentje Diek, an energy analyst at HSH Nordbank AG, said by phone from Hamburg. “Gasoline and distillate stockpiles are clearly above their five year average.” Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 95 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $68.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $68.49 at 11:11 a.m. London time. Coupled with a 3.9 percent plunge yesterday, the two day decline has reduced oil’s year to date gain to 54 percent, from more than 60 percent last week.....Read the entire article

Following the Jockeys in the Oil Patch

You’re only as good as your last deal.

Buy the jockey, not the horse.

That’s what came to mind today when I read that Eagle Rock Explorations (ERX-TSXv) was bringing in a new management and re-capitalizing this 550 boe producer operating in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Half the new group is from Crescent Point Energy (CPG-TSX) the most highly valued intermediate oil producer on the TSX. That’s a great calling card. The other half comes from Wild River and Prairie Schooner, two junior producers that were build and sold earlier this decade.

And the Eagle Rock stock showed the worth of this team, quadrupling to 32 cents on huge volume of 12 million shares – 22% of the stock outstanding. Many investors follow this strategy, find successful management teams who have built and sold companies before, and follow them on every deal. So in my next issue for subscribers, due out in the first couple weeks of October, I will profile three new young companies that are the new ventures for three highly successful management teams in the Canadian oil patch.....Read the entire article

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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