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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Phil Flynn: Freezer Frame
Has the coldest winter in a decade, as some experts predict, just begun? Can record cold really overcome record supply if refineries cut back production? Well it seemed a bit more plausible as winter worries helped an oil flurry on a light volume trading session. The cold weather fed into fears that refinery cut backs could cut into a massive oversupply situation when every trader turned on the heat. Throw in a weaker dollar and you have the perfect recipe for a holiday trade oil rally.
Barbara Powell at Bloomberg fed into traders concerns when she reported that, "Oil refiners from Valero Energy Corp. to Sunoco Inc. are cutting the most capacity since the early 1980.” The reason she says is that they fear that even, “the coldest U.S. winter in a decade won’t be enough to soak up a glut of fuel.” Powell said, "returns from processing crude into heating oil for delivery in February are the lowest in six years”.....read the entire article.
Labels:
Bloomberg,
PFG Best,
Phil Flynn,
Sunoco,
Valero
UNG Mulls Investment in Interests Outside Futures
NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG.P), an exchange traded fund in the natural gas market, reiterated on Tuesday that it could invest in interests other than futures contacts to comply with accountability levels and position limits.
UNG told Reuters last month it rebalanced its portfolio to decrease positions in listed natural gas futures, while increasing the fund's holdings in over the counter natural gas swaps.
In a filing Tuesday, UNG said it may invest in other interests including cash-settled options on futures contracts, forward contracts for natural gas, cleared swap contracts and over the counter transactions based on natural gas, crude oil and other petroleum based fuels.
UNG said that despite the move futures contracts will remain its principle investment. (Reporting by Edward McAllister; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
Labels:
futures,
Natural Gas,
Reuters,
swaps,
UNG
Crude Oil Going to Test Key Resistance as USD Tumbles
Crude oil price surges to 74.47 in European morning as USD continues to decline against major currencies except for British pound. Moreover, advance in stock markets in Asia also helps boosts demand for oil as well as other risky assets. Leading the rally in the Nymex energy complex is heating oil which adds +1.9% to 1.926. The benchmark contract has soared for 4 straight days and accumulated more than +8% gains. RBOB gasoline rises for the second day to 1.828.
As the driving season is over and the heating season approaching, investors have shifted their focus to heating oil from gasoline. Gold price strengthens and rises to a new record high of 1069.7 amid dollar's weakness. Others in the precious complex such as silver and platinum also rally with silver gaining +1% to 18 and platinum jumping +1.5% to 1370, the highest level....read the entire article.
Labels:
benchmark,
Crude Oil,
Gasoline,
Oil N' Gold,
RBOB
Monday, October 12, 2009
Bloomberg Analysis: Commodities to Gain 10% If Crude Breaks $75
The S&P GSCI Index is poised to surge 10 percent by the end of the year if oil prices breach resistance above $75 a barrel this week, according to a technical analysis from Oscar Gruss & Son in New York. The GSCI has just broken out of a four month consolidation after moving above resistance at 481, and if crude oil rallies, “this index could easily move significantly higher,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Oscar Gruss.
The index soared as much as 2.7 percent today to 485.03, the highest level since Oct. 20, 2008. The next resistance for the GSCI is at 530 points, marking a 38.2 percent retracement of the 2008 collapse, he said. The index tumbled from a high of 893.86 on July 3, 2008 to 305.59 on Feb. 19. “This target is comfortably achievable during this quarter,” Shaoul said.....read the entire article.
Labels:
commodities,
Crude Oil,
GSCI,
GSG,
Oscar Gruss and Son
ALERT: Weekly Trade Triangle Buy Signal For Crude Oil
Attention all MarketClub Members: Our Weekly Trade Triangle strategy flashed a buy signal on November crude oil this morning at 72.65.
Here's what You Get with Your MarketClub Membership
Labels:
Crude Oil,
MarketClub,
strategy,
trade triangle
Dow Jones Commodity Index Fund Trading Opportunity
From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.....
Dow Jones Commodity Index Fund
This index tracks the entire commodity market as a whole. Over the past two years we have seen commodities drop in value substantially. The good news is that we could be seeing prices rise going forward from here.
2009 has been a fantastic year for trading commodities with the market bottoming and starting to move higher. This commodity index clearly shows a Cup & Handle pattern and is looking ready to breakout in the coming weeks. The C & H pattern is the best chart formation we could get. Breakouts from these patterns generally provide a rally which can last months at a time.
Let’s take a look at what kind of opportunity looks to be just around the corner.
Dow Jones Commodity Index Chart – Weekly
Commodities appear to have bottomed and are getting squeezed into the apex of the bullish wedge. This index could easily rally to the 180 level which is about 35-40% Gain.
DJP iPath Commodity Index Fund – Weekly
After reviewing several different commodity index funds I like the characteristics for DJP the most. There is enough volume traded which makes for a smooth trading fund on an intraday basis when looking at the 10 minute chart. Several other funds were choppy and thinly traded.
This is Exciting, everyone knows how most commodity funds vary from the underlying commodity price, well this fund trades identical to the index. What does this mean? It means we can trade the DJP commodity index fund for short term and long term positions because there isn’t any price decay over time.
Performance Chart of Commodity Index & Fund
This chart goes back almost 2 years. As you can see the % change for the index and the fund are virtually identical. We do not need to worry about Contango with this fund.
Major Commodities Breaking Out or Bottoming
Gold, Crude Oil and Natural Gas are highly traded commodities and will play a large role in the direction of the commodity index.
Gold is breaking out to a new high – Bullish
Crude Oil is consolidating in a bullish wedge – Bullish
Natural Gas is trying to bottom and should move higher into the winter – Bullish
Dow Jones Commodity Index Trading Conclusion:
Money has been moving into the commodity sector since March of this year. As a technical trader this opportunity jumps out at me. I wanted to share it with fellow traders because this could be once of the easiest trades of the year if the index breaks out in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Newsletter please visit my website, The Gold and Oil Guy.
Chris Vermeulen
Dow Jones Commodity Index Fund
This index tracks the entire commodity market as a whole. Over the past two years we have seen commodities drop in value substantially. The good news is that we could be seeing prices rise going forward from here.
2009 has been a fantastic year for trading commodities with the market bottoming and starting to move higher. This commodity index clearly shows a Cup & Handle pattern and is looking ready to breakout in the coming weeks. The C & H pattern is the best chart formation we could get. Breakouts from these patterns generally provide a rally which can last months at a time.
Let’s take a look at what kind of opportunity looks to be just around the corner.
Dow Jones Commodity Index Chart – Weekly
Commodities appear to have bottomed and are getting squeezed into the apex of the bullish wedge. This index could easily rally to the 180 level which is about 35-40% Gain.
DJP iPath Commodity Index Fund – Weekly
After reviewing several different commodity index funds I like the characteristics for DJP the most. There is enough volume traded which makes for a smooth trading fund on an intraday basis when looking at the 10 minute chart. Several other funds were choppy and thinly traded.
This is Exciting, everyone knows how most commodity funds vary from the underlying commodity price, well this fund trades identical to the index. What does this mean? It means we can trade the DJP commodity index fund for short term and long term positions because there isn’t any price decay over time.
Performance Chart of Commodity Index & Fund
This chart goes back almost 2 years. As you can see the % change for the index and the fund are virtually identical. We do not need to worry about Contango with this fund.
Major Commodities Breaking Out or Bottoming
Gold, Crude Oil and Natural Gas are highly traded commodities and will play a large role in the direction of the commodity index.
Gold is breaking out to a new high – Bullish
Crude Oil is consolidating in a bullish wedge – Bullish
Natural Gas is trying to bottom and should move higher into the winter – Bullish
Dow Jones Commodity Index Trading Conclusion:
Money has been moving into the commodity sector since March of this year. As a technical trader this opportunity jumps out at me. I wanted to share it with fellow traders because this could be once of the easiest trades of the year if the index breaks out in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Newsletter please visit my website, The Gold and Oil Guy.
Chris Vermeulen
Let Me Introduce You to Adam Hewison of The MarketClub
From guest blogger Adam Hewison.....
My name is Adam Hewison. You might want to Google Me to confirm what I am about to share with you.
There are plenty of people out there that create “exclusive email courses” with little or no credentials to actually backup their teachings. So, I think it’s right that I share a little bit about myself with you before we even start.
I was a former floor trader on the IMM, IOM, NYFE and LIFFE as well as a risk manager of a large, multinational corporation in Geneva, Switzerland. I also have written books on forex trading and trend following. In 1995, I founded INO.com and later co founded MarketClub. I’ve been in the trading biz for over three decades and have seen it all. I created this course as a way to give back and share trading tips and techniques that I still use in my trading today.
In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.
(1) The importance of psychology in price movement
(2) How to spot mega trends
(3) Understanding of technical price objectives
(4) How to picture price objectives
(5) How to trade with moving averages
(6) How to use point and figure trading techniques
(7) How to use the RSI indicator
(8) How to correctly use stochastics in your trading
(9) How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends
(10) How to capitalize on natural market cycles.
Plus, you will you will learn all about fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.
Just Click Here to fill out the form and we’ll get you started right away.
Every success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com & Co-Creator, MarketClub
Labels:
Adam Hewison,
ADX,
Bollinger Bands,
INO .Com,
Market Club,
Stochastics
Interior Boss Says No to Drilling on 8 Utah Parcels
Eight of the 77 oil and gas lease parcels sold during a December auction that a saboteur wrecked and a federal judge later halted will be off limits to drilling, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has decided. Allowing development on the 7,670 public acres near Canyonlands and Arches national parks, Desolation Canyon and Nine Mile canyon could harm critical sage grouse habitat with little obvious benefit to oil and gas development, concluded a 39 page analysis released Thursday.
During a Washington news conference, Salazar said 52 parcels would be held back pending further study and 17 would be allowed back at upcoming auctions. Drawing from the report compiled by an 11 member team from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service and Forest Service who examined more than 103,000 acres from the ground up Salazar scolded the Bush administration for allowing the Dec. 19 auction in Salt Lake City to go forward.....read the entire article.
Labels:
Bush Administration,
Drilling,
Ken Salazar,
Utah,
Washington
Phil Flynn: Global Warming Takes a Holiday!
Get the ear muffs out. Oil bears gets frosted as cold temperatures give the energy complex a Columbus Day boost. Global warming takes a holiday as heaters across the country seemed to go on much earlier than usual. Stunning records for cold were set across the nation increasing the demand for heating fuels over the weekend. The Chicago Marathon, according to the Chicago Tribune, had its coldest start since a 33 degree low in 2002 which they say was a far cry from 2007 when temperatures soared into the upper 80s and officials canceled the marathon after 3 1/2 hours into the event. In Denver it was reported that an artic cold front moved in and broke a cold temperature record that stood for 104 years.
In fact on Friday, Denver saw temperatures plunge 23 degrees in five hours setting the stage to make that record low. There were record lows in many parts of the country like Wyoming, Utah, Illinois and Iowa and if records were not broken in many areas it was extremely close. The early blast of winter is giving oil a bit of a boost on this lightly traded holiday market. It kind of makes you wonder what happened to global warming. In fact that is what the BBC is wondering in an article titled, "Whatever happened to Global Warming?" The BBC said, “This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in.....Read the entire article.
Labels:
energy,
heating oil,
PFG Best,
Phil Flynn,
Stochastics
Crude Oil Higher as Net Long Positions Return to 2009 High
Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If November extends the rally, September's high crossing at 73.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.22 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.58
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 73.13
Second resistance is September's high crossing at 73.58
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.54
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.22
Here is Some Potential Mega Trades For Q4
Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.351 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If November extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 5.133 then the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 5.320 are the next upside targets.
Nat gas pivot point for Monday is 4.84
First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.12
Second resistance is August's high crossing at 5.13
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.75
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.74
Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today
The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above monthly support crossing at 75.73. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 77.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.80
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.74
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 75.68
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39
Labels:
Crude Oil,
Natural Gas,
net long,
Stochastics,
UNG,
XOM
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