Natural Gas: The Russians Are Coming!

The new trading desk in North America for Gazprom, the largest producer of natural gas in the world, sits halfway up the 56 story Bank of America tower in the heart of the America's energy capital. So far, the office, which started trading contracts last week for the first time, is quiet. That won't last. "Our target for volume growth is pretty strong," says John Hattenberger, president of Gazprom Marketing & Trading USA, an arm of the Russian behemoth that claims 17% of the world’s natural gas reserves. "If we could hit 5% [of the U.S. market] in the next five years, that would be about right. In 10 years, I think we could get to 10%." U.S. demand for natural gas is about 60 billion cubic feet a day.

Gazprom for years has been a dominant player in the natural gas market through the use and control of pipelines. It exports gas to more than 30 countries and meets a quarter of Europe’s needs. The U.S. market, however, the largest in the world, has been too far away for Gazprom to reach. Pricey new liquefied natural gas developments, which allow for worldwide shipping, should change all that. Global LNG demand is expected to double by 2020. "LNG is a strategic way for Gazprom to get into markets that it can’t access by pipeline," says Hattenberger. "It makes a lot of sense for the world’s largest gas company to bring gas to the world’s largest gas market and it has to be done through LNG".....Read the entire article.

Halliburton Profit Drops Less Than Analysts Estimated

Halliburton Co.’s third-quarter profit dropped less than analysts estimated on projects the world’s second largest oilfield services provider is working on outside of North America. Net income fell to $262 million, or 29 cents a share, from $672 million, or 74 cents, in the third quarter of 2008, Houston based Halliburton said today in a statement. Excluding costs for job cuts, profit was 31 cents a share, 5 cents higher than the average of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil futures in New York averaged $68.24 a barrel in the third quarter, 42 percent lower than a year earlier. Crude climbed from $59.79 in the second quarter. Operating profit from a region that includes Africa, Europe and the former Soviet Union fell 2 percent, and income declined 16 percent in the Middle East and Asia. The drop in North America was 93 percent. “I thought that the numbers in the Middle East and Europe came in stronger than I expected, both in terms of revenues and margins,” said Mark Brown, a senior analyst at Pritchard Capital in New York who has a “buy” rating on Halliburton shares and owns none. “I thought that was a good sign for Halliburton”.....Read the entire article

Peak Oil Will Influence The Shape of Our Future World

We are currently reading another interesting book dealing with the global economy and cheap oil that combined to revolutionize the world's transportation business and altered the history of our economic development. The book is called The Box: "How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger" by Marc Levinson. This book is essentially a history of the evolution of the mundane shipping container (just a large metal box) that brings us exotic foods and inexpensive consumer products from around the world. Much like the books, Cod: "A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World" and "Salt: A World History", both by Mark Kurlansky that document the world altering impact of simple things like a fish and grains of a chemical product, the shipping container is a remarkably simple device that also changed the course of the world's economy.

If oil is no longer available, or cheap, will developed economies be capable of getting cheap foodstuffs and industrial and consumer products that have contributed so much to their economic development and high living standards? The answer from Messrs. Rubin and Steiner is: No!

The two authors have the same theme, how Americans will have to give up traveling, abandon eating foods that come from great distances away and find new ways to work. These books, listed on the non fiction book lists, amaze me because they truly are fictional works. Admittedly they are based on reasonable premises, but they are largely speculation about how the world of the future will unfold.....read the entire article.

Phil Flynn: NO MAS!

No Mas, refiners wave the white flag as the Energy Information Agency report that US refinery runs plunge 10% to 80.5 percent! That puts refinery runs below the five year average of 81.4 percent causing a steep drop in gasoline and drop in distillates setting off a firestorm of buying in the petroleum complex. Keep in mind that that this is a five year average that includes two major hurricane related shut downs. In other words refiners are running like they were hit by a hurricane and if you look at their margins for profit for doing business they kind of were. His was the the third lowest run rate of the last 10 years, excluding 2005 and 2002.

Refining profit margins have fallen 83% in the last nine weeks a drop that has refiners just shutting down. If you can’t make a profit making a product why bother. And what is more it is likely that if demand and margins do not pick up soon we could see further cuts in runs and also in supply. The cuts supported crude as the market thinks that refiners will focus on only the highest yielding crude oil not wasting effort on the lower yielding stuff.....read the entire article.

Bloomberg Analysis: Oil May Breach 200 Week Average, Test $85

Crude oil is poised to breach technical resistance at its 200 week moving average and rally to $85 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Citi FX. Oil for November delivery touched a one year high of $77.97 a barrel yesterday, positioning it to breach the 200 week moving average at the close of today’s trading, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citi FX, part of Citigroup Capital Markets in New York. The average last week was $74.98 a barrel.

“If that happens, we think a move to at least $85 could be in the cards with some interim resistance just above $80,” Fitzpatrick said. Such a move “is likely to confirm the directional bias for the rest of this year.” Oil last crossed the 200 week moving average a year ago on its way down to $32.40 in December, the lowest price since February 2004. Before that, crude spent more than five years above the average as it rallied to a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.....read the entire article.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 78.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 74.57 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But downside should be contained by 71.55 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally. Hence, we'd look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise. However, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
While consolidation from 5.12 may extend further, note that with 4.351 support intact, we'd expect to consolidation to be relatively brief and maintain the short term bullish outlook. Above 4.75 minor resistance will flip intraday bias for 5.12 first. break will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.351 will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 3.94 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.

What Really Caused The Oil Price to Collapse?

What really caused the oil price to collapse? Philip Treick says it’s not what everybody believes. Conventional thinking believes the oil price collapsed because of the dropping global demand from a world wide recession sparked by the US sub-prime fallout. Treick, founder and principal of Thermopolis Partners LLC, has a slightly different view. He explains how everything – the oil price collapse, the global economy collapse – started with an unannounced policy change in China towards its currency. More importantly, he uses his theory to tell investors what to look for in the coming months and years that will guide us in finding profits. His charts, reproduced below, provide a sharp image to back up his comments.

KS: Most people think the collapse in the US sub prime housing crisis caused the global recession. But you don’t. Why is that?

Treick: Well, I point out if you look at mortgage equity withdrawn in the United States – that peaked in late 2006. Identifying that point in time as the top of the credit cycle, our credit based economy had already started to contract prior to the collapse in oil and copper. So one can’t say that the credit contraction was the sole cause of this collapse in commodity prices, because it was already in full force. It definitely contributed to it, but it wasn’t the sole cause. Something else had to contribute. That something else was an unannounced change in currency policy out of China.....read the entire article, interview and charts.

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Big Draw in Gas Supply Sends Energy Prices Jumping

Refineries that make gasoline and other fuels swiftly cut back on production last week, the government reported Thursday, sending energy prices jumping across the board. Energy markets had largely brushed off a winter weather forecast this week for major winter storms in the East and icy, cold conditions even between Atlanta and Dallas.

The Energy Information Administration, however, reported Thursday that gasoline in storage fell by more than 5 million barrels at a time when most energy experts expected supplies to grow yet again. Refiners have been idling facilities because of a lack of demand at the same time that others have been shut down for routine maintenance. Earlier Thursday, the dollar hit a 52 week low and the surprise report on gasoline may have led some people to believe supplies are growing tight, said oil analyst Tom Kloza said.

"The ignition switch for a rally got hit twice today," Kloza said. For consumers, that may mean a slight drift upward in pump prices but not much, experts believe.
Crude and gasoline prices have remained relatively stable for months with no clear signs of an economic rebound. Prices began to rise late last week when Alcoa, which kicks off the U.S. earning season, reported that it had returned to profitability after three straight quarterly losses.....read the entire article

Jeff Rubin: NOW is Time to Buy Oil

Fmr. CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin on oil prices.