Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets

On Wednesday, 11/11/09, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rallied to a 50% retracement level based on MarketClub’s Fibonacci measuring tool. The action today indicates that this level is very important and that it could be an important top for this market.

In our latest video we cover both the Dow and the S&P 500 and tell you what we think is going to happen to both of these markets in the near and intermediate term.

Just Click Here to watch our latest video and as always our videos are free to watch and there’s no need to register. Please take a moment to let us know what you think of the video by leaving a comment.

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO, The Crude Oil Trader

Phil Flynn: Strange Bed Fellows

What does OPEC and the International Energy Agency have in common? Well usually not too much but there are exceptions.

OPEC represents the interests of oil producers whose club pumps about 40 percent of the of the global oil supply and the International Energy Agency (IEA) which acts as energy policy advisor to 28 oil consuming nations rarely see eye to eye to eye on many of the big energy issues of the day. Yet it seems in this era of economic stress even this odd couple may share some of the same ideas on energy without driving the other one crazy.

Well for one thing they both generally believe that the demand for oil is getting better. The IEA was the latest agency to upwardly revise its forecast for global oil demand predicting a consumption average rate of 86.2 million barrels a day up 140,000 barrels from their October report. That was the day after OPEC predicted a demand increase to 85.07 million barrels a day 50,000 barrels a day higher than their last report. Usually the IEA likes to estimate demand on the high side and OPEC on the low side yet a demand increase. Yet it is not just increasing demand that they agree on. They agree that the increasing price of crude may be a threat to the economic recovery.....Read the entire article.

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Weekly EIA Crude Oil Petroleum Status Report Highlights

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 6, 145 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 79.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.7 million barrels per day last week, up 530 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same
four week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 732 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 177 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 337.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by
2.5 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

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Total products supplied over the last four week period has averaged 18.7 million barrels per day, down by 4.7 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.0 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has
averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 13.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 4.0 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four week period last year. The average world crude oil price on November 6, 2009 was $76.34 per barrel, $0.15 less than last week’s price but $17.68 above a year ago. WTI was $77.40 per barrel on November 6, 2009, $0.36 more than last week’s price and $16.34 above a year ago.

The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was 192.15 cents per gallon, 5.70 cents less than last week’s price but 51.75 cents above last year. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was 195.44 cents per gallon, 1.03 cents less than last week’s price and 0.91 cent under a year ago. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to 266.6 cents per gallon on November 9, 2009, 2.8 cents per gallon less than last week but 44.2 cents above a year ago. The national
average retail diesel fuel price decreased to 280.1 cents per gallon, 0.7 cent per gallon less than last week and 14.3 cents below a year ago.....Read the entire report.

Crude Oil Falls on Larger Than Expected U.S. Supply Increase

Crude oil fell after a government report showed a larger than forecast gain in stockpiles as sinking demand pushed refinery operating rates to the lowest level in more than a year. Supplies of crude oil rose 1.76 million barrels to 337.7 million last week, the Energy Department report showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 1 million barrel gain. Refinery operations declined to the lowest level since September 2008, when units were shut in the aftermath of hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

“The big problem is that demand is week, and refiners are starting to feel pain,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC, a Houston based energy adviser. “It’s good for consumers that crude oil stocks increased, but with demand so low, refiners aren’t going to need it to make gasoline and other fuels.” Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.14, or 2.7 percent, to $77.14 a barrel at 11:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 73 percent this year. Futures traded at $77.32 before the report’s release at 11 a.m. in Washington.....Read the entire article.

USO and UNG Mid Week Trading Tips

Crude oil has a nice bull flag and we are waiting for a breakout and setup while natural gas continues to see selling pressure.

USO Fund Trading – Daily Fund Chart
The USO oil fund broke out a few weeks ago from the large pennant pattern. The price has been flagging for about 3 weeks now. It looks like we are getting close to a low risk setup so I am keeping a close eye on this fund.


UNG Fund Trading – Daily Fund Chart
Natural gas continues to under perform the rest of our commodities. This fund is starting to look like another good by point but we need a few things to fall into place before that happens. Let’s not jump the gun because this fund is still in a bear market. Waiting for a setup.


Waiting for these exchange traded funds to generate low risk setups and watching our current positions mature is the boring part of trading. It’s these slow times when traders get bored and start taking more risk by entering positions that do not have clear entry and exit points. Not having clear entry and exit points will lead to traders holding on to losing trades and not taking profits on winning trades. Be sure you enter positions which you know where you should get out if the trade goes against you and where to take some money off the table if it rallies higher.

ETF Trading Conclusion:
We continue to wait for trading opportunities to unfold. We focus on taking advantage of low risk setups and avoiding times the market when things are choppy and unclear.

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Crude Oil in New York Fluctuates as Chinese Imports Gain, Dollar Climbs

Crude oil rose as Chinese crude imports neared a record and the dollar weakened to a 15 month low, buoying demand for commodities. China’s net oil imports were almost 19 million tons, or 4.5 million barrels a day, the second highest level ever, according to data from the Beijing based customs office. Oil rose and gold surged to a record as the dollar’s slide bolstered purchases of raw materials by investors seeking alternative investments. “The Chinese numbers are obviously very supportive,” said John Kilduff, partner at Round Earth Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodity investments, in New York.

“The consistently high import numbers fly in the face of those who say there is nothing fundamental about the rise in oil prices.” Oil for December delivery rose 82 cents, or 1 percent, to $79.87 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have climbed 79 percent this year. Chinese imports increased as industrial production soared 16 percent from a year earlier, spurring fuel use. Last month’s net imports were the highest since July’s record 19.2 million barrels. China is the second largest oil consumer after the U.S.....Read the entire article.

What's The Next Stop For Gold?

After hitting our first upside target of $1,110 two days ago, gold prices backed off but still managed to close at their best levels today for a new record high close in New York basis the spot gold.

The question now is, what’s going to happen to gold after it hit our first target level?

The main trend continues to be positive and we believe that any pullback in this market should be met with good support. It is possible that we could see a pullback of $20-$25 which would not change the overall positive trend of the market which we see continuing until the end of the year.

As readers of this blog know, we have an upside target zone of $1,250-$1,300 an ounce for gold. While that target zone is still in place, we believe that the huge “energy field” that we’ve discussed in our earlier gold videos is capable of pushing this market higher.

In this new video we explain some of the areas that we are looking at and also some of the places where you can place tight stops to lock in profits.

Just Click Here to watch the video and as always the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. We would love to hear your views on gold in our so please feel free to leave a comment.

Phil Flynn: Sitting Idle After Ida

After surging yesterday on the weak dollar and now tropical storm Ida, I think we can focus on all the bearish stuff that did not seem to matter. You know stuff like gas gluts and supply surpluses. As Ida hits the coast the market realizes that there is plenty of oil, products and spare production capacity to easily weather this tropical storm. More oil is on the way as the Saudis and OPEC send signals that more oil production is likely at the December OPEC meeting and news that China is raising the domestic cost of gasoline which could put a dent in China’s domestic oil demand.

Reuters News reported that Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has increased December supplies to large companies, and one Asian customer is expected to receive full contract volume. Bloomberg News reported that OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near record inventories. This is raising speculation that this is a precursor to OPEC oil increase at the December OPEC meeting. Yet Dow Jones reports that.....Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Climbs Above $80 a Barrel in New York as U.S. Equities Rebound

Crude oil fluctuated as Tropical Depression Ida weakened and the dollar gained against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners. Ida’s sustained winds have dropped to 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour from 45 mph earlier, the National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. Producers have begun preparations to resume operations. A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge.

“I doubt there was any severe damage caused by Ida,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “There will probably be some impact on next week’s inventory data, but that’s it.” Crude oil for December delivery fell 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $79.11 a barrel at 11:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures dropped as much as 88 cents and climbed as much as $1.08 today. Prices have increased 77 percent this year.....Read the entire article.

New Video: How Long Will The Dow Stay Bullish?

The Dow jumped to new highs for the year, extending its gains from the lows seen in March.

What does this mean for the future?

The Dow is now within 100 points of being into thin air as it has retraced close to 50% of its down move. The NASDAQ has already done this, and the S&P 500 has come very close to achieving this goal. Clearly the trend continues to be positive for the Dow with today’s new highs. The other two indices, while closing very well and on an upbeat note, must clear their previous highs to start another push to the upside. It remains to be seen whether or not that will take place.

Clearly this is an emotional market that’s been driven more by sentiment then hard economic news.

Having said that, one must take into consideration the perception of the marketplace, and as of right now that perception continues to be friendly towards the long side of these markets.

In our new video we show you some of the key points to look at in terms of where these markets could potentially break down, and possibly reverse to the downside.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always please feel free to leave a comment and let us know where you think the Dow is headed.


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