Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
If the economy bounces back and the Chinese hang onto their Euros, can oil bulls find love and happiness in this world of economic turmoil? The audacity of hope once again has crept back into the oil market. A string of strong macroeconomic numbers that blew away market expectations, as well as some strong oil demand numbers, has the marketplace trying to forget all about the fears of a global economic meltdown that has engulfed the market. For today all the subplots have been put aside for the moment as the market now wants to bask in the economic silver linings of the moment.
You know you are going to have a good day when you get a report that shows refinancings are rising and housing sales of new homes surged 14.8%. Add to that a strong durable goods number that gained 2.9 percent in April, the fourth boost in the last five months, and somehow the world is not so scary. Oh sure the Europeans have problems as evidenced by rumors that the Chinese were looking to divest themselves from Euros and it seems that the world's largest oil consumer, the USA, might lead the oil market out of its recent darkness.
That mood was further cemented when the Energy Information Agency released a report that showed some stellar oil demand numbers. Despite the fact that the EIA reported that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week, they also reported that the string of increases at the key delivery pinpoint Cushing, Oklahoma actually fell from its record high. Along with that the EIA reported demand numbers that....Read the entire article.
Crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as European Debt fears ease. Today's rally led to a close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.96 signaling that a short term low has likely been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.68. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15. Second support is last July's low crossing at 66.11.
Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.254 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 4.587 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off this month's high, this month's low crossing at 3.971 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.315. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.971.
The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.44 warning bulls to use caution as a double top might be forming. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.27 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.27.
Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1204.40. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1249.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1218.50. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.
Crude oil surged more than $3 a barrel as equities and the euro rallied after China affirmed its commitment to investing in Europe. Oil climbed 4.3 percent as China denied as “groundless” a report that it’s reviewing euro holdings and the nation’s sovereign wealth fund said it’s maintaining European assets. The euro gained 1.5 percent against the dollar, boosting the appeal of commodities as an alternative to the U.S. currency. “If China were really looking to offload euro denominated debt, that would put downward pressure on the euro, and the euro/dollar rate has been one of the key factors in oil prices,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington.
Crude oil for July delivery rose $3.04 to settle at $74.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one day increase since Sept. 30. Futures have climbed 17 percent in the past year. The euro rose to $1.236 at 3:15 p.m. in New York, compared with $1.2178 yesterday. It was the first increase in the euro in four days. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.8 percent to 1,097.55, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 237.53 points, or 2.4 percent, to 10,211.98. “The big news is U.S. macroeconomic data is still solid,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “Growth is the story”....Read the entire article.
It's been just a little over a year since we had our first major buy signal for the S&P 500 at 888.70 on 5/4/09. Since that time, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 61.8% from the lows that were seen in early March of '09 and the highs that were seen in October of '07.
We take our "Trade Triangle" technology very seriously and this signal today (5/25) at 1044.50 is our first major sell signal since 7/1/08 at 1,272.00 and should not be ignored.
There are a whole host of problems that are coming due around the world that will have negative consequences for the equity markets. The problems in Greece and Europe are well known and are likely to continue for the balance of the year. This is going to have a negative impact on markets in general.
In our new short video we show you exactly what we think is going to happen to the S&P 500 market and just how you can protect yourself if we are correct. As always our "Trade Triangles" will dictate all market action. At the present time all of our "Trade Triangles" are negative and pointing to the downside. This indicates that a very strong trend is in place and it likely to continue.
Many traders, especially younger traders, are unaware of how bear markets work. Bear markets tend to be demoralizing as they do not have any strong and sustained rallies. They tend to erode as more and more traders become unnerved and throw in the towel.
We invite you to take a look at this new video with no registration and no charge.
It’s been an exciting week for traders as volatility levels are through the roof and the broad market is moving up and down like a yoyo. You cannot take your eyes off the screen if you have a large amount of money invested as you can quickly find yourself with a large profit or loss in the matter of minutes....
Although we have seen stocks jump around the past few days precious metals have held strong with very little volatility. This is because of the economic fears looming for the US and other countries of possible financial collapse. This fear is helping to boost gold and silver prices because they are seen as the safe haven. Also we are seeing money move in the US dollar because the country is still seen as a leader in many ways helping to boost the US dollar.
Below are a couple charts on Gold and Silver ETF’s showing the end of last years rally and the correction in prices which are now looking to setting up for another leg higher.
Gold Futures Price – 60 Minute Day Trading Chart
Gold has been showing some very bullish price action the past week forming several mini bull flags with confirming volume levels. I think we should see gold pop another $5-10 bucks in the very near future if not continue higher for several days.
SLV – Silver ETF Trading Vehicle – Daily Chart
Silver formed much of the same patterns as gold but with much more volatility. Also silver has yet to break the 2009 high which is surprising but with a large part of silver being use for industrial purposes it does make sense as the economy is not as strong as it was thought to be in 2009. Silver carries much more risk when trading because it has more random moves and increased volatility.
Mid-Week Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:
In short, gold and silver are in an uptrend and looking strong. Both are currently trading at short term resistance levels on the daily chart which has caused them to stop moving up today (Wednesday May 26th) but on an intraday basis they look solid and could break though these resistance levels.
That being said buying way up here adds a lot more risk because a good chunk of the move has already been made and if prices do roll over and start heading back down the next support level is several percentage points away for placing a protective stop with the proper amount of wiggle room.
If Trading Gold, Silver and Index Futures and ETFs interest you, check out Chris Vermeulen's trading services at The Gold and Oil Guy.com
Crude oil's rebound from 64.24 extends further today and intraday bias is on the upside for stronger rise, possibly towards 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 78.39. On the downside, though, break of 67.15 minor support will indicate that such recovery is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, decisive break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.41. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15. Second support is last July's low crossing at 66.11.
Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends last week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.971 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.267 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.267. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.971.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.06 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.06.
Gold closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1206.10 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends today's rally, this month's high crossing at 1249.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1216.90. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.
After exiting all long positions at 1217.72 on 5/18, we reinstated long positions seven days later on 5/25 at 1196.57.
As many of you know who watch my videos, we use our weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend direction and our daily "Trade Triangles" for timing entry and exit points. It was those daily "Trade Triangles" that flashed a buy signal on 5/25.
Given the chaotic state of the world and all the cross currents that are running in the banking system, we would not be surprised to see gold once again climb up and challenge the $1,250 level. All of our "Trade Triangles" are green and 100% to the upside. This indicates that a strong trend is once again in place for the gold market.
The video is available for viewing now and there is no charge or registration requirement.
Gold traders are always a very vocal segment of the trading population and so we encourage you to let your voice be heard on our Trader's Blog.
The reality is, the world is in a whole mess of debt and it's all coming due at the same time.
Make no mistake about it, the situation in Europe is dire. The problems with Greece are well known. The problems in Spain are growing, and the problems in Ireland and Portugal are about to rear their ugly heads.
We are not going to rhapsodize about the problems in Europe, they are well known and are manifesting themselves in the price action of the world markets, however, in this short video on the euro we want to show you how monthly charts and our "Trade Triangles" tell the story and show the trend very clearly. We also show you a simple method that you can use in your everyday trading to estimate how far a move can go.
My hope is that this new video will highlight some of the reasons why we believe we could be seeing some strong opportunities in this market.
Just click here to watch the video and as always it is available for viewing now and there is no charge or registration requirement. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what your thoughts are on the video and the future of the Euro.
