Trend Trading Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the SP500

Last week looked and felt like a pivotal week for both stocks and commodities. The past two weeks have had investors and traders in a panic as they try to find safe investments for their money. After watching and reviewing the panic selling in the market it looks as though the majority decided to sell everything and be in cash for the time being. This is bullish for the stock market.

I will admit it has been tougher to trade recently because of increased risk levels due to the large 2-4% sell offs and rallies happening within minutes… While this is amazing for disciplined and experienced traders who are able to pull the trigger getting in and out with quick profit in the matter of minutes, this same price action can blow up trading accounts of those who do not have a trading strategy, money management and the discipline to take profits and cut losses very quickly. The speed of the rallies and sell offs is the matter of being up or down thousand of dollars in the matter of 5-10 minutes… That is one of the reasons I have stepped back from being aggressive and into more of an observation mode playing with small amounts of money and focusing on the larger trends at.

My #1 goal is to make subscribers money with the least amount of risk and watching the market swing 2-4% in minutes makes it extremely difficult to get everyone in and out positions with a profit before the market changes directions. As much as I love trading, some times the best position is to have small ones or be in cash.

GLD – Gold ETF Trading

Here is my weekly updated chart of gold as it works its way through the correction from last year. The daily chart looks to be forming a larger Cup & Handle pattern which is extremely bullish. If this pattern does a text book move then we could see GLD reach $140 and spot gold would reach the $1400 area.

That being said this pattern still has to complete the handle portion which could easily last another 4 weeks, so I am not in a panic to add more to our position.

SLV – Silver ETF Trading

Silver is in much of the same situation. Because of the added volatility in silver the charts do not look quite the same but they are similar in many ways… Silver is used a lot for industrial purposes and because the economy which is very weak still (though it is getting better) we are not seeing silver demand rise much. If silver can break this large resistance level then we could see silver surge to $25 (25%) this year.

USO – Oil Fund Trading

USO (Oil) has held up really well in the past 12 months but the recent sell off has seriously damaged the bullish outlook I had not long ago. While it is oversold and looks to have started a bounce last week the chart is pointing to lower prices over the longer term… This USO fund does have contago which makes this fund under perform the actual price of oil. The current prices of oil are still trading at a key support level and could post nice bounce if not trigger a new rally. The problem with following some ETF’s which have contago is that you do not see the real price action of the commodity. But that is were I come in as I track the underlying commodity and relate it to ETFs for you.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading

The Stock Market (SP500) sure has been a roller coaster. The chart below shows you what happened in January for the last correction and where we stand currently in comparison. If a setup is obvious in the financial market there is a very high chance it will not work out as planned and by knowing this it allows us to be cautious and take profits at key short term support and resistance levels.

Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel gold and silver will drift around to digest the recent move up and to form the handle portion. Oil looks to have put in a short term bottom and if we get a small pullback in the coming days to test the intraday chart breakout level and touch the support trend line we could look to take a position.

We tend to see the most price appreciation during the final stages of a trend and we could have seen that on the US Dollar over the past 6 weeks. It looks as though the dollar could have put in a double top. If the dollar rolls over it would help boost precious metals, oil and stocks… But we will not know it’s a top until there is a clear trend reversal which in any case will be weeks before that type of price action can unfold.

As for the SP500, we have seen the same level of selling as we did in Feb-March 2009. High volume panic selling has ruled the market since late April. There are equal arguments for saying the market has bottomed with all the panic selling and that we should start another large rally lasting 8-12 months or one could argue this is capitulation volume signaling massive distribution of shares and now every rally/bounce will be sold… Personally I am torn between the two… but lean more towards higher prices with a multi month grind up at slow rate…

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook

Natural gas's rebound last week suggests that consolidation from 3.81 is still in progress. Further rise might be seen initially this week but we'd expect strong resistance at 4.494 to limit up side. Below 4.154 minor support will indicate that recovery from 3.986 is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 3.81/884 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm down trend resumption and should target 3.0 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next after sustaining below 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. However, note that decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 5.68 to 3.81 at 4.524 will argue that whole fall from 6.108 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for a possible test on 6.108 high.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 6.047) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.679) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Here Are 20 Signs That China Is Cornering The Global Oil Market

In response to the BP's Deepwater Horizon disaster, President Obama has launched a 6 month moratorium on new deepwater exploration contracts and other oil drilling restrictions.

But China isn't stopping. Just this month, state-owned Chinese companies have signed contracts worth over $50 billion in Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Iraq, Venezuela, and Nigeria.

Most deal include an export clause, locking down energy supplies for the growing Chinese economy. If America's demand ever increases, these deals would present a serious problem.

And Beijing has no qualms about offshore drilling.

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's rebound extended further to as high as 75.72 last week. Though, there is no change in the view that such rebound is a correction in the larger decline. While some more rise might be seen, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 71.23 minor support will indicate that rebound from 64.23 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Phil Flynn: The Manic Month Of May

Sell in May and go away? That would have worked in the petroleum markets so far. Of course if you looked at a chart of the markets you might be sick to see how much money you may have given back. The bulls started the lusty month of May lusting for new highs which they got on light holiday volume as the lead month oil contract broke out to a high of approximately 8715 on May, 3, 2010. Those lofty highs were only fleeting as Greece debt fears engulfed the global market place crushing the optimism of April into the fear factor of May as oil came crashing down to what was a flash crash low of approximately 6424 on that fateful May 20,2010.This manic month of May has been gripped by fear and loathing as to the state of euro zone debt.

The market feared that the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) would bring down the global economy. We even had a mini “flash crash” as protestors surrounded the Greek Parliament. Oil fortunes both good and bad have been dictated by sovereign debt fears but also because of a back drop of a massive over supply.Yet oil has staged an impressive comeback. Rumors that the Chinese were going to reduce their holdings of European debt and euro currencies were denied and that seemed to ease the markets' concern. The denial sparked a massive across the board commodity and global stock rally. We also had end of the month short covering as many traders headed....Read the entire article.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gas are likely headed next week.




New Video: Where to Place Your Stops in Gold?

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.51 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.72. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.51. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.83. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's breakout above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.247. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 4.587 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off this month's high, this month's low crossing at 3.971 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.399. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.971.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.51. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1202.90. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1249.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1218.50. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.

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Hate Politicians, Not Big Oil

John Hofmeister, author of "Why We Hate The Oil Companies", says America's politicians do more to create energy problems than solve them.



As president of Shell Oil, John Hofmeister was known for being a straight shooter, willing to challenge his peers throughout the industry. Now, he’s a man on a mission, the founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy, crisscrossing the country in a grassroots campaign to change the way we look at energy in this country. While pundits proffer false new promises of green energy independence, or flatly deny the existence of a problem, Hofmeister offers an insider’s view of what’s behind the energy companies’ posturing, and how politicians use energy misinformation, disinformation, and lack of information to get and stay elected. He tackles the energy controversy head-on, without regard for political correctness. He also provides a new framework for solving difficult problems, identifying solutions that will lead to a future of comfortable lifestyles, affordable and clean energy, environmental protection, and sustained economic competitiveness.


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What Hurricane Season Forecast Means for Natural Gas ETFs

The numbers are out: an active storm season is predicted for the Atlantic, and natural gas related ETFs are already gearing up and moving on the news. More storms than “normal”, about 16, are anticipated to hit the Atlantic coast of the United States this season. Of these, eight are expected to become hurricanes and about four of them are going to be intense, according to the Tropical Storm Risk.

Alex Morales and Brian K. Sullivan for Bloomerg BusinessWeek reports that the forecast joins a growing number of predictions that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1, will be among the most active on record. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s crop areas.

The Gulf is home to about 30% of U.S. oil and 12 % of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Energy Department says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Meanwhile, BP is still trying to cap a leaking offshore oil well that has created a devastating slick that is washing up in Louisiana. Attempts to stop the oil will be hampered if and when a tropical storm or hurricane passes through the Gulf of Mexico.....Let's go to the charts!

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil rises further to as high as 75.72 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside and rebound from 64.24 is in favor to continue to 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 78.39. On the downside, though, break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that such recovery is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, decisive break of resistance at 78 level is needed to indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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