Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 6th

Crude oil's break of 71.23 minor support last week suggests that recovery from 64.24 is already completed at 75.72 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a test on 64.24 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Disappointing Employment Numbers Drag Crude Oil Down Near $72

Crude oil prices fell hard Friday after a key barometer of the economy showed that U.S. companies remain reluctant to hire, dampening prospects that a rebounding economy mean more oil and gasoline demand. The nation's payrolls added 431,000 jobs last month, almost all of them from temporary census jobs. The unemployment rate inched down to 9.7 percent. Private companies added just 41,000 jobs, compared with 218,000 in April, and well below analysts' forecasts.

Stock markets dropped with the weaker than expected private sector hiring picture, and that pulled down oil prices as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were all down about 2 percent in late morning trading. Meanwhile, retail gasoline prices rose Friday for the first time in nearly a month, though analysts think pump prices for June are likely to continue falling, albeit at a slower pace.

Benchmark crude for July delivery dropped $2.38 at $72.23 per barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, it climbed as high as $75.42. The contract rose $1.75 to settle at $74.61 on Thursday. "This jobs report makes it look like we're not going to see a summer boom," said Mike Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.72. First support is today's low crossing at 70.79. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends Thursday's breakout above the upper boundary of the April-May trading range crossing at 4.433. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.977. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.217.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday breaking out to the topside of the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the March 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 88.33. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed higher on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1251.40 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1230.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1251.40. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Phil Flynn: All Right So You Are Mad At BP

All right so you are mad at BP so why not go out and try to cut into their profits buy not buying their gasoline. Well it sounds good, but the problem is that if you want to get back at BP that is not the way to do it. The truth is BP is not in the retail gas business and the other truth is all you will hurt by boycotting them is the people that have nothing to do with the spill. A BP boycott is an exercise in futility.People are angry and they want to lash out but a boycott won't hurt BP.

The owners of BP gas stations just bought the brand name and are in many cases hard working taxpaying citizens that are basically trying to make a living in a business where profit margins are already thin and rely heavily on the sale of cold drinks, coffee and hot dogs. They too are the victims of BP’s errors and are probably even angrier at BP than you are. Boycotting BP branded service stations to get back at and hurt BP will have about the same impact on BP as if you decided to boycott Dunkin Donuts or McDonalds or CNBC. On second thought, maybe boycotting CNBC might be a good way to express your anger.

You know keeping things like that bottled up like that might not be good for your health. And of course watching the Fox Business Network is a good way to feel better.Back in 2007 BP sold all of its U.S. convenience retail units of its company owned and company operated convenience stores. The majority of sites were sold to franchisees and some to dealers and large distributors (jobbers). While the franchises are required to market BP.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil is still staying in tight range below 75.72 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that rebound from 64.23 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Falls First Day in Three on Slowing Growth in China

Crude oil fell for the first day in three on concern growth will slow in China, cutting fuel demand in the world’s second largest energy user. Oil gave up some of yesterday’s 2.4 percent gain on speculation Chinese demand will slow as policymakers trim economic stimulus after the $1.4 trillion lending binge that revived growth in 2009. Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York traded West Texas Intermediate oil is delivered, rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said.

“The mood is still cautious,” said Toby Hassall, a commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The numbers from the EIA were not unexpected in terms of the seasonal pattern. There is still caution in the marketplace.” Crude oil for July delivery dropped as much as 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.19 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.31 at 10:33 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.75 to settle at $74.61. Futures are poised for a 0.4 percent gain for the week, the second consecutive weekly increase.

“Sentiment is still very fragile,” David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney, said by telephone today. “Inventories are still high. There are some signs of improvement but it’s certainly not a tight market at this stage”....Read the entire article.

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Video: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories Slide

Oil inventories declined greater than expected, with CNBC's Sharon Epperson and Chris Motroni, Heritage Energy.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.72. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.97. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and closed above the upper boundary of the April-May trading range crossing at 4.433. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 4.872 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.264 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.703. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 4.872. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.217. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.971.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1251.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1230.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1251.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1206.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Phil Flynn: Oil Prices Rise On Leaked Information

That is right! The jobs report was leaked causing a rally in the stock market! Who got their hands on this valuable inside information and leaked it to the marketplace at large? Well believe it or not it was Obama himself. What!? I know! Yet that is exactly what he did. Speaking at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the President said, “After losing an average of 750,000 jobs a month during the winter of last year, we have now added jobs for five of the last six months, and we expect to see strong job growth in Friday's report.” Ah ha!!!

Do you think he knows something? Now that is just one day after the Vice President Joe Biden said that the upcoming May employment report would show a much larger number of jobs created than in the previous month, when 290,000 jobs were added. Do you think he knows something? Ok, silly question. But of course the market took the President seriously anyway helping to drive stocks and the oil market higher.Why oil? Well based on improving US demand expectations on better US jobs outlook we might actually consume more oil.

That thought was enforced by some pretty strong auto sales data. It seems that in the Month of May while the stock market was tanking auto sales were soaring! Maybe some people were taking their stock profits to buy new cars. Ford, GM and Chrysler all saw double digit sales gains over May of a year ago according to the AP. The AP reported, “May marked the seventh straight month of year-over-year sales increases for the auto industry. Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., and Chrysler Group L.L.C. saw double digit sales gains over the same month last year, when GM was headed into bankruptcy, joining Chrysler”.....Read the entire article.

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