Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 13th

Crude oil extended the consolidation from 64.24 and edged higher to 76.30 last week. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 64.24 are merely consolidation to fall from 87.15. Hence, even though another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 69.51 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


The Most Complete, Current Trading News!


Share

Phil Flynn: The Great Retrace

After hitting a high of 8715 on May the third and a low of 6424 on the flash crash low, oil has barreled back to near the $75.00 a barrel area and it appears the great retrace is on. Oil rallied on the illusion of economic stability and a strong euro only to have those daydreams be shattered in financial deception. The oil market has come to a major decision point and may be getting ready to get back into a bull market mode. Yet oil, like a lot of the major markets, are at key technical turning points and they had better make it now or we are going to break it.The markets are acting like the ghosts of May and the nightmare of Europe are behind us and the market is acting like they want to believe again in economic aplomb.

The strongest China exports in 6 years have traders forgetting about their hot inflation. They had good debt auctions across the euro zone and now the markets want to try and believe the crisis in Europe never even happened. And besides Jean Claude Trichet says the euro is a stable currency. Why didn’t he tell us that last week and save us all a whole lot of worry! Yet seeing is believing. The stock market and the oil markets have to follow through and the bonds are going to have to break to keep oil going. The question is: Do you believe?Well I know.....Read the entire article.


The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010


Share

Smart Scan Chart Analysis For USO

Where is USO headed? Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing an uptrend with some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend. Trade the uptrend with tight money management stops. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15......New 3 Day High on Thursday
+20......Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25......New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 12th
-30......New 3 Month Low in May

+70......Total Score


Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology


Share

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 69.51 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.635. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01. Second support is today's low crossing at 86.77.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1225.80. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.10. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

Free Trading Video: Day Trading Made Simple

Share

New Video: The Battle of the Bull and Bears

The battle between the Bulls and Bears continues with very choppy trading action. The rally from a potential double bottom is cause for concern for the Bears, however the Bulls are in a similar situation as they have to prove their case with sustained market action.

In our new video, we outline some of the key levels that we think are important in the S&P 500 market. Volume continues to to be light and that is why the markets are moving around and are so volatile at the moment.

This is our first video this week, but expect many more as the market rotates. Don't miss our special risk free trial offer to MarketClub, my premium charting service, offered at the end of this video.


Just click here to watch "The Battle of the Bull and Bears"



Share

Friday's Crude Oil Resistance, Support and Pivot Numbers

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and renew the rally off May's low.

If July renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.42.
Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30.

Friday's pivot point is 75.17

First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51.
Second support is May's low crossing at 67.15.


Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE....Courtesy of the MarketClub



Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

As noted before, Crude oil's rebound from 64.24 is possibly still in progress and further rise might be seen. But after all, we're still expecting strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 to limit upside to conclude the correction. On the downside, below 69.51 minor support will argue that such recovery is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today

Share

Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




John Murphy is one of the best technical analysts out there…check out this exclusive seminar for free

Share

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and above renewed the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 69.51 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday ending a two day correction off Tuesday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.428 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.588. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.428.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.44 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.94 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is today's low crossing at 87.02. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.94.

Gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1224.30 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.20. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

What do all Market Wizards Have in Common?

Share

Phil Flynn: BP Means Bad Policy

Bashing BP is in. While Obama is trying to figure out whose "ass to kick", politicians are acting like jilted lovers falling all over themselves to try to lash out and hurt BP while our global reputation as the world’s best and most fair place to do business is at risk. This goes far beyond BP and what they could have or should have to avoid this disaster or how they are handling the aftermath but really comes down to the credibility of this country in the global market place.

BP stock got hammered again in part because the Obama administration wants to make BP cover all the damages from the Gulf oil spill even the millions of dollars in salaries of the laid off oil industry workers let go because of their Federal moratorium on deepwater drilling. This is a concept that has no basis in our rule of law and is trying to change the law after the fact. In other words, they want BP to pay for their own bad policy. At the same time members of Congress are trying to retroactively lift the 75 million dollar liability cap on punitive damages and possibly have no cap at all.

Yet revenge and emotion always makes bad policy. The truth is that eliminating or raising the liability cap for oil companies will cost us thousands of jobs in the oil industry. Small oil companies and drillers will go out of business and insurance rates for companies will skyrocket faster than health care costs. US domestic oil and gas production would fall, maybe dramatically. It would add dollars to the cost of a gallon of gasoline and higher costs would prolong the recession. Higher energy costs would hurt small businesses across the country and would.....Read the entire article.





Share