Crude Oil Bulls Take a Clear Near Term Technical Advantage

Crude oil closed up $0.67 at $77.61 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh four week high on more short covering and fresh speculative buying interest. The bulls have upside near term technical momentum and have the overall near term technical advantage. My bias is that a market low is in place and that it's likely price action will remain choppy and in a trading range between the May low of $67.15 and psychological resistance at $80.00.

Natural gas closed down 20.0 cents at $4.989 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking pressure from recent gains. Recent price action suggests a major market low is in place in natural gas and that prices can continue to trend higher in the near term. Prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at 86.45 today. Prices closed near mid range today. While no serious chart damage has occurred recently, the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed down $2.70 at $1,231.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Mild profit taking pressure was featured. The gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no solid early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. Prices are in a four month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.


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Crude Oil Breaches 200 Day Moving Average, May Retest Highs

Crude oil is set to surpass this year’s highs above $87 a barrel after breaching the 200 day moving average yesterday, a “major” chart resistance level, according to Schork Group Inc. Crude, which reached a 19 month high of $87.15 a barrel on May 3 before tumbling as much as 26 percent, yesterday settled above the moving average for the first time in a month. Prices also cleared the middle of two Bollinger Bands, which plot support and resistance levels based on volatility, further boosting chances of a rally, according to Stephan Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania based consultants.

“At this point it is now hard to argue against a retest of the highs from early May,” Schork said today in an instant message. Crude traded near a one month high after rising yesterday as U.S. equities gained, bolstering speculation fuel demand will increase. The contract for July delivery was at $76.92 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 2 cents, at 10:57 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have gained more than 9 percent in the past year.

Oil earlier this week was trending in the middle of two Bollinger Bands, indicating it may be “make it or break it time for the bulls,” Schork said in a note yesterday. With prices having advanced, the market may push toward the 100 day moving average, which is at $78.39 a barrel today, before the upper Bollinger Band at $79.18. The nine day Relative Strength Index also shows oil is “neither overbought nor oversold,” signaling short-term trends may be sustained, according to Schork.

“We have switched our bias to bullish on crude oil after concerns about offshore drilling and potential weakness in the dollar align to create significant upward potential despite an abundance of supply,” he wrote yesterday.

Via Bloomberg News

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Phil Flynn: The 90% Solution

What do you get when you put together a Nobel Prize winning physicist, national labs and experts from academia and other oil companies? You get what could be called a 90% solution. President Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office and said that his efforts to wage war against the oil spill that is assaulting our shores and our citizens would result in capturing up to 90% of oil leaking out of that BP well disaster. I would say that is an amazing effort. Yet while he wages war against this oil spill why he is not allowing our allies to help in the effort?

By not waving what is known as the Jones Act, or its real name the Merchant Marine act of 1920, he is slowing down the efforts to capture oil from the spill. The Jones act requires that all ships that carry goods in US waters be carried in U.S. flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents. The problem is that this act would forbid the help of foreign ships that have the technology to.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.19
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 76.24

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.19
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Naturual gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.136

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.868
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG


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New Video: The Talk Of The Day Is Crude Oil

Whether it is the spill in the Gulf, which continues unabated, or talk on Capitol Hill, the subject is crude oil. Today we received a signal by way of our weekly "Trade Triangle" to get long crude oil.

In this new brief video, we show you the exact levels to keep your eye on and also where a logical stop would go for this position. We have had a lot of questions on Fibonacci retracements lately and this video goes into detail about that phenomenon and how you can best use it.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We are always interested in your views so please leave us a comment and let us know what you think about the direction of crude oil.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and gold may be headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Advances Above $75 a Barrel Before Inventory Report

Crude oil rose to a one month high in New York as the euro gained against the dollar, bolstering the appeal of commodities, and on forecasts that a government report will show U.S. supplies fell for a third week. Oil climbed as much as 2.1 percent after the 16 nation currency strengthened, following increases in global stock markets. U.S. crude oil inventories probably declined 1 million barrels in the week ended June 11, according to the median of 13 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The euro is higher and oil is following,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There’s been a very strong correlation between currencies and oil recently.” Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.51, or 2 percent, to $76.63 a barrel at 11:05 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $76.70, the highest level since May 12. Futures are up 8.5 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for July settlement climbed $1, or 1.3 percent, to $76.20 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The July contract expires today. The more active August futures increased $1.15, or 1.5 percent, to $76.81 a barrel. The euro strengthened to $1.2316, up 0.8 percent from $1.2221 yesterday. The currency touched $1.1877 on June 7, the lowest level since March 2006, on concern that the debt crisis in Greece will spread to other countries in the region.

“The bulls are trying to move oil higher, and they’ve been getting intermittent support from the euro and dollar,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: A Quick Update on the S & P 500

The sharp rally we saw on Friday followed through on Monday, but appears to have run out of steam. In this new short video, we show you what you should be looking at in this market and how we think it should be played.

The video is short, less than two minutes, but you'll get a lot of good information that will help you trade these choppy, choppy markets.

As always we are interested in your views on the SP 500, so please leave us a comment and tell us what you think.


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Crude Oil Stochastics-RSI are Becoming Overbought But Remain Bullish

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.73 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.42
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.05

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.73


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New Video: How to Tell When a Market is Oversold

Markets can get oversold, but when is a market really oversold?

In our latest video we show you a specific example of how markets can become oversold, stay that way, and why sometimes a relief rally doesn't change anything.

This is a short video and it's one we highly recommend watching as it will help you in the future to be aware of the oversold phenomenon.

We invite you to take a look at this new video and as always it can be viewed with no registration and at no charge.

We are also interested in your views or strategy dealing with an oversold market, so please feel free to leave us a comment.

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