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Crude oil was lower overnight and is extending last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50
Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 81.32
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10
What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger than expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. The goal is to try to inspire some type of economic enterprise.
Despite the signs of some rebound in the economy new health care programs and new financial regulation bills are leading to uncertainty and economic immobility. The Fed worried about another deflationary spiral that had seemed to be gaining momentum as the market anticipated a reduction of the fed balance sheet. The Fed fears that if they start to remove this stimulus that then it is possible that this nascent recovery make roll over and die.....Read the entire article.
This is like the perfect marriage of TV and the web. Now you can attend online trading seminars that you have an interest in. It is so easy. If you are reading this email, you are online and therefore have everything you need to get started. You can attend all 4 trading seminars, or just the ones that interest you. There are four world class trading instructors that will help improve your trading. Best of all, it's all online and it's on TREND TV now.
I find it amazing how many traders do not use volume as a factor in their trading decisions. I believe it’s always important to track the volume no matter which time frame you are trading simply because it tell you how much interest there is for that investment at that given time and price level. If you use volume and understand how to read it when located at the bottom of the chart which is the standard way of reading it then your well ahead of many traders and just may find this little volume indicator helpful.
Price and volume are the two most important aspects of trading in my opinion. While news and geopolitical events cause daily blips and in rare occasions change the overall trend of an investment, more times than not its better to just trade the underlying trend. Most news and events cannot be predicted so focusing on the price action and volume helps tell us if investors are bullish or bearish for any given investment.
Below are a few charts showing the volume by price indicator in use. Reading this indicator is simple, the longer the blue bars the more volume had traded at that point. High volume levels become key support and resistance levels.
SPY – SP500 Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see on the chart below and I have pointed out key support and resistance levels using the volume by price indicator. The thin red resistance levels would be areas which I would be tightening my stops and or pulling some money off the table.
The SP500 is currently trading at the apex of this wedge. The market internals as of Friday were still giving a bullish bias which should bring the index up to resistance once more on Monday or Tuesday. From there we will have to see if we get another wave of heavy selling or a breakout to the upside.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Gold has the opposite volume to price action as the SP500. We are seeing a lot more over head resistance and that’s going to make it tough for gold to make a new high any time soon.
USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund
Crude oil broke out of is rising wedge last week and has started to drift back down as traders take profits. Many times after a breakout we will see prices dip down and test that breakout level before continuing in the trend of the breakout. I should point out that there is a large gap to be filled from last Monday’s pop in price and we all know most gaps tend to get filled.
UUP – US Dollar Exchange Traded Fund
The dollar has been sliding the past 2 months and it’s now trading at the bottom of a major support level. If the dollar starts to bounce it will put some downward pressure on stocks and commodities.
Weekend ETF Trend Conclusion:
In short, I feel the market has a little more life left in it. I’m expecting 1-2 more days of bullish/sideways price action, after that we could see the market roll over hard. It’s very likely the US dollar starts a significant rally which will pull stocks and commodities down.
With the major indices and gold trading at key resistance levels, traders/investors ready to hit the sell button, and the dollar at a key support level I think its only a matter of time before we see a sharp snapback. That being said there is one scenario which is bullish and could still play out. That would be if the US dollar starts to flag and drift sideways for a week or so, and for stocks and commodities to also move sideways before taking another run higher. Watching the intraday price and volume action will help us figure out if buyers are sellers are in control this week. Anyways that’s it for now.
Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50
Monday's pivot point for crude oil is 81.14
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.24
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.95
Crude Oil had a breakout this week as the risk trade was put on, it benefitted from the short the dollar, and go long commodities play. Plus equities have been testing the higher levels, and trying to establish a higher trading range. The problem with market participants today is that they become too bearish when indications appear bad and too bullish when indications appear good. For example on July 5th you couldn`t give crude oil away for $71 a barrel, and one month later, you couldn`t get anybody to sell it for $82.70 a barrel either.
And the odd paradox of oil trading is that this is exactly what you should have been doing as a market participant. The issue with getting too bullish on crude oil right now is that there are weekly inventory reports that give great insight into the fundamentals of the commodity. Unlike other commodities such as wheat or copper whose precise inventory levels are often a mystery at best, the EIA does an excellent job of providing a detailed report each week that comes out on Wednesday.
And the current fundamentals do not support a strong bullish case for crude; in fact, they are quite bearish for the near term. Enough so that crude oil most likely will not go above $84 a barrel on this breakout. And if it does, statistically speaking, the odds favor being on the other side of the trade, It only pays to buy at the top of the market if there's a runaway bull market, and the current dismal fundamentals of crude oil preclude such a scenario.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil edged further higher to 82.97 last week but retreat sharply since then. A temporary top is at least formed and initial bias is neutral this week. We'd continue to seem more retreat below 82.97 first. Nevertheless, note that another rise remains in favor as long as 75.90 support holds. Above 82.97 will target 100% projection of 64.23 to 79.38 from 71.09 at 86.24 next. However, break of 75.9 will be the first signal that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished and will turn focus to 71.09 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 64.23 is a correction to fall from 87.15 only. Hence, even in case of further rally, we'd expect strong resistance below 87.15 high and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 71.09 will be the first signal that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for another low below 64.23 towards 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.
Crude oil fell the most in a month as weaker-than-forecast growth in U.S. company payrolls bolstered concern that the economic rebound in the world’s biggest oil consuming country is slowing. Oil slipped as much as 2.2 percent after the Labor Department said private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by 71,000, less than forecast, after a gain of 31,000 in June that was smaller than previously reported. A government report on Aug. 4 showed that U.S. fuel supplies rose last week as demand fell.
“The fundamental news today is that the U.S. economy isn’t creating enough jobs,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “There’s no indication that this situation will change anytime soon. There were already doubts about demand, and inventories remain elevated.” Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15, or 1.4 percent, to $80.86 a barrel at 12:45 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are heading for the biggest decline since July 1. Futures are up 2.4 percent this week.
Brent crude oil for September settlement declined $1.31, or 1.6 percent, to $80.30 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Economists projected a 90,000 rise in private jobs, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Overall employment fell 131,000 and the jobless rate held at 9.5 percent, according to the department. “We’re losing jobs, not adding them,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “This is hardly a signal that energy demand will be vibrant in coming months”.....Read the entire article.
Are you looking for an exit strategy from the historic amount of economic stimulus and quantitative easing that has dominated global stock and commodity markets? Well look no further than Europe. While we here in the United States are raising the possibility of more quantitative easing and more ways to stimulate the economy, the President of the European Central Bank Jean Claude Trichet is sending signals he is looking for a way out. Yes, I know. It’s crazy! The EU and its three freaking pillars were on the verge of crumbling into pillars of dust just months ago.
Now EU growth is improving and even Greece passed the EU stress test and now Mr. Trichet seems to be stopping just short of flying a “mission accomplished” banner. Of course Jean-Claude, ever the optimist, said not long ago that people were just too darn negative on the EU and now he seems to be saying get ready to start the long road back to economic normalization. The US on the other hand, has Fed Governors talking about Japanese style Deflation.....Read the entire article.
Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.597 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282
Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.660
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.597
Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.556
Smart Scan Chart Analysis for natural gas etf "UNG" indicates a counter trend rally is underway The current up trend could be changing and moving into a trading range Sidelines Mode.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored +55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Thursday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending July 31st
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May +55.....Total Score
