Phil Flynn: Demand Jam

According to the Energy Information Agency heading into the Labor Day holiday weekend, U.S. retail gasoline prices fell three in a row with an average price of $2.68 per gallon which was the lowest level of the 2010 peak summer driving season and the second lowest price at this point in the past five summers.

Still not even that may save the demand side of the equation. With storms battering up and down the East Coast, demand for gasoline was most likely impacted negatively. We are in the heart of the shoulder season and demand will continue to be very weak. We still maintain a bearish bias but still recommend playing the ranges.

The storms in the Atlantic never seem to end. There are 3 tropical waves that currently have about a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. At this time the storms do not seem to be a threat still they will bear watching.

What the bears really need to do is watch the me on the Fox Business Network and the bulls should join in too. If you don’t get it you need too!

Sign up for Phil's daily energy report and his daily buy and sell points on all of the major commodities by emailing him at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.80.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.58.

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 74.12

First support is the reaction low crossing at 70.76.
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

Get Started Trading Today.....Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Share

Where is Crude Oil ETF USO Headed on Tuesday?

Our Smart Scan Chart Analysis for the crude oil ETF....USO, is showing some near term rallying power. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term downtrend that should be traded with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):



+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15......New 3 Day High on Friday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 28th
-30......New 3 Month Low in May
-75......Total Score


Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology


Share

Stefan van Woenzel: "The Oil Trader's Word(s)"

"The Oil Trader's Word(s)" is a book with a collection of close 1,000 words which are used by Oil Traders. Oil traders buy and sell oil, take positions and must have a lot of knowledge about Oil Logistics, Oil Paper, The Market, H.S.E. , Oil Documentation and much more. Oil Traders communicate a lot with operators, contract personal, claims departments, controllers, storage people, shipping agents, oil brokers, reporters and many more. The business language is not always easy to understand and often people do not ask what all the talk mean.

When I started in the oil business many years ago, I had no clue what traders talked about. I started in operations in a storage company. I learned the busines because I always asked questions. Even though when you ask a question to a trader you might still be puzzled after getting the answer. Very often I have been looking for an Oil trading Glossary. I could not find it, because it just did not exist. Therefore I decided to make a file to collect words in the Oil Busines which are most often used by trader or should be part of a trader's competence.

The result of collecting the Oil Trading Terms is what you find in my book, "The Oil Trader's Word(s)". I am Senior Crude Oil Trader and to be a trader, you have to be a man of your word. No room for flakers.

The back side of my book contains the following text:

Physical oiltrading is a worldwide activity containing a lot of oil business terms related to the physical trade, logistics, paper trading, refined products and H.S.E. This glossary of oiltrading terms is useful for people working in oil trading organisation (front, mid and back office), oilbrokers, oil inspection companies and storage companies, so basically to all people related to the oil industry.

The book is a guide to help understanding The Oil Trader’s Word(s). Pay also attention to the "Phrases of Wisdom" and H.S.E. stories in this book. This book is not meant to be used as legal documentation related to commercial or operational decisions.

Click here to find an internet shop to order the Oil Trading Glossary

Share

Crude Oil Hovers Above $74 as Traders Eye US Economy

Crude oil prices slipped to near $74 a barrel Monday in Asia as traders weighed whether growing Chinese demand can offset weak U.S. fuel consumption amid high unemployment. Benchmark oil for October delivery was down 25 cents at $74.35 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 42 cents to settle at $74.60 on Friday.

Most investors took heart after the Labor Department on Friday said private employers added 67,000 jobs in August, more than analysts expected. However, the jobless rate rose in August to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July, showing that unemployment remains high despite massive stimulus spending during the last year. Oil prices have been in a holding pattern around $75 for most of the past year as developed countries rebound from last year's recession but economic growth threatens to slow in the second half.

Traders are looking to China and other emerging economies to fuel demand for commodities in coming years. If China continues to grow at its current rate of about 9 percent a year until about 2030, its oil demand would equal all of today's global crude production, HSBC chief economist Stephen King said. "So the likelihood is over the next five to ten years, we'll see significantly higher oil prices," King said. "The China story is becoming more and more important."

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil fell 0.43 cent to $2.05 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.33 cent to $1.916 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery skidded 3.9 cents to $3.90 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was down 6 cents at $76.61 on the ICE Futures exchange.

From The Associated Press - Singapore

Share

Crude Oil Falls for Second Day on Speculation Fuel Demand Will Drop

Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on speculation that fuel demand will decline as the U.S. summer peak consumption season ends and as crude and fuel inventories rose. Today’s U.S. Labor Day holiday marks the end of the peak driving season. Traders are betting more on falling gasoline prices rather than rising for the first time in almost four years.

U.S. crude inventories are about 5 percent higher than a year ago, while gasoline stockpiles are almost 10 percent more than last year. “Factors like driving season demand and the level of oil inventories have been neglected in recent months,” Roland Stenzel, a crude trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH, said from Vienna. “I am beginning to think this could become more important again.”

Crude for October delivery fell as much as 58 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $74.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.37 at 3:14 p.m. London time. There will be no floor trading on the Nymex today because of the U.S. holiday. All electronic trades will count as part of tomorrow’s session. Brent crude for October settlement advanced 36 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $77.03 a barrel as of 3:14 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London.....Read the entire article.



Share

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday September 4th

From the staff at Oil N Gold.....

Crude oil was bounded in choppy sideway trading between 70.76/75.58 last week. Consolidations from 70.76 could still extend further and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and bring resumption of fall fro 82.97. Sustained trading below 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this bearish case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts

Here’s a Great Alternative to High Price Trading Courses

Share

Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead to where oil and gas are likely headed next week.




Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Crude Oil Trader Market Summary For Friday Evening

The S&P 500 index gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If September extends this week's rally, August's high crossing at 1127.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1059.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1104.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1127.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1071.32. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1059.54.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.56. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.21. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76. Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

The U.S.Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.61. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 81.99 is the next downside target. If September renews August's rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.94. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 83.64. First support is today's low crossing at 82.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 81.99.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.864 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short covering rebound is possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.071 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.946. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.071. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.697. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1267.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.80 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1255.30. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1267.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1240.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.80.

Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today

Share

Phil Flynn: Welcome To September!

Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about.

An explosion and fire on a Mariner Energy platform had traders saying oh no here we go again. Mainer Energy, a former unit of Enron and now in the process of being bought by Apache, has had it shares of accidents racking up more than 12 in the last four years. Anytime you are dealing with oil and gas it is a potential dangerous situation and accidents are going to happen. The fears that this accident would give the critics of off shore drilling more ammunition to keep.....Read the entire article.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share