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Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.24 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.08.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07.
Oil dropped from its highest in almost two weeks as analysts forecast U.S. crude stockpiles swelled to the largest since June amid refinery maintenance and that fuel demand has slowed. Futures retraced some of yesterday’s 2.3 percent gain on expectations that crude inventories climbed 1.5 million barrels last week, according to analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. U.S. industrial production fell for the first time since the recession ended in June 2009, according to Federal Reserve figures. Economists had forecast an increase.
“The fundamentals haven’t really improved by a great deal,” said Serene Lim, a commodity analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “Inventories have been on the high range of the five year average so there are substantial supplies.” The November contract lost as much as 42 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $82.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $82.71 at 12:05 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it increased to $83.08, the highest settlement since Oct. 6. Prices are up 4.5 percent this year.
The more actively traded December contract slipped as much as 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $83.37. “We’re probably seeing a bit of profit taking today with $83 being a strong resistance level,” said Lim at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. November oil surged yesterday to as much as $83.28 a barrel after a strike in France curbed fuel supplies. French truckers blocked highways and officials said they would use police to prevent strikers from cutting the delivery of fuel as the standoff hardened over President Nicolas Sarkozy’s plans to raise the retirement age to 62.....Read the entire article.
Ongoing French labor unrest and its effect on the country's refineries and fuel terminals contributed to a $1.83 increase in the oil futures price Monday. Crude oil for November delivery settled at $83.08 as French refinery workers, truckers, students, and others continued to strike in protest of the Sarkozy government's attempt to change the retirement age from 60 to 62. The retirement age increase, which would be fully phased in by 2018, has already been approved by France's National Assembly. The Senate is set to vote on the measure Wednesday, and strikers hope the civil unrest will pressure the upper chamber to kill Sarkozy's pension reform plan.
Strikers have prevented oil tankers from entering the major southern port of Fos Lavera, and all 12 of France's refineries have been shut down. Moreover, the protesters have attempted to block access to fuel terminals. An official with a fuel importers' group said Monday morning that roughly 1,500 of France's 12,000 retail fuel outlets have exhausted their supplies of some or all types of fuel. Also having a bullish effect on oil Monday were rising equities markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each closing up more than 0.7%. Crude oil traded within a range from $80.35 to $83.08 Monday.
The price of a gallon of gasoline also surged, thanks to many of the issues affecting crude oil. Front month gasoline settled a nickel higher at $2.15 after fluctuating between $2.09 to $2.155. Thanks to a mix of abundant inventories and underwhelming demand as traders continue to await cold winter weather, November natural gas fell 10.4 cents to settle at $3.43 per thousand cubic feet. Gas traded from $3.44 to $3.53.
The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and hit or are near fresh multi month highs. The stock index bulls have the overall near term technical advantage as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls. My bias is that prices will trade mostly sideways, but with a slight upside bias, into the end of the year.
Crude oil closed up $1.86 at $83.11 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today. Trading has become choppy and sideways at the higher price levels. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the October high of $84.43 a barrel.
Natural gas closed down 11.8 cents at $3.417 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh contract low today. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.80.
Gold futures closed up $0.40 at $1,372.40 today. Prices today closed near the session high after being under profit taking pressure early on. Once again, bargain hunters stepped in to buy weakness in the gold market. The U.S. dollar index backed off its earlier highs today and that also allowed gold prices to move up from daily lows. The gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The U.S. dollar index closed down 10 points at 77.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage, as the bulls today could show no follow through strength from gains seen on Friday. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.
There is no doubt that Ben Bernanke can inflate the commodity bubble and at the same time let some of the air out. Ben Bernanke has somewhat disappointed commodity bulls by not being more forthcoming about the size and the scope of the next round of quantitative easing. While today the Wall Street Journal is raising legitimate concerns about the potential backlash from his policies due not only to rising commodity prices but also the surge of investment in some emerging markets.
The Wall Street Journal writes, “The Federal Reserve's latest effort to juice the U.S. economy is making many investors in emerging-market and commodity-producing nations confident the rally has longer to run. Others see trouble ahead, concerned too many investors are jumping into the rally and that these markets can't keep raising if the U.S. economy stays sluggish.” Already this year a record $60 billion has gone into emerging-market stock and bond funds... and investors expect another $500 Billion...”. The question becomes what will happen if investors run for the exits at the same time. Commodity inflation is now thought to be......Read the entire article.
The broad markets along with metals have been on fire but in the last two weeks we have seen the sentiment become stronger. The extreme bullishness we are seeing has made it difficult for low risk swing traders to get in on the action simply because there have not been many sizable pullbacks. Instead the prices have been inching their way higher with very minor pullbacks before surging again.
The only way to take advantage of this type of price action in order to keep risk low is to take small positions when the market drops to the 5, 10 or 14 moving averages with a mental stop to exit the position if the market closes below the 14ma. Any position take up here should be small because the market is in runaway mode, meaning everyone is buying on the smallest of dips. The largest moves tend to be near the end of a trend which is why I feel this market could keep running for a few more weeks before taking a sharp plunge.
Natural Gas
If you have been reading my work over the past year you should know I don’t like natural gas. More people have lost money trying to play natural gas than any other investment vehicle out there which is why I don’t cover it very often. Many of you have been asking about Natural Gas (UNG) so here are my thoughts on it.
UNG has been in a down trend for several years and the only trades should be short positions at this time. The argument from some is that it’s undervalued and with winter just around the corner prices should go up. It’s a valid argument but price action is what makes traders money, not fundamentals.
The daily chart of Nat Gas below shows what I feel is about to happen. Remember, UNG is a terrible fund to be buying. Unless natural gas is moving strongly in your favor, this fund continually loses value simply because of the way its created.
Looking at the actual natural gas commodity chart is a different story… The trend is still down, but it does look as though it’s trying to form a base when looking at a 3 year weekly chart. That being said, there is still a very good chance we see gas test near the $3 level before starting a new trend so trying to pick a bottom here is not something I would be doing.
Trading Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is still in a strong uptrend. I’m not comfortable taking any large positions at this stage of the game but if we get a setup I will not hesitate to enter with a little money.
As for natural gas...trying to pick a bottom is deadly in a down trend as bounces tend to be short lived or flat. I will cover the dollar, gold, oil and the market internals in the member’s pre market morning video....
Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.08
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.78
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.10
Crude oil declined for a third day in New York amid speculation that builders in the U.S. started fewer homes in September and as the dollar gained against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Crude fell as the U.S. currency climbed for a second day after rebounding from the lowest level since January. Work began on 580,000 houses at an annual rate, down 3 percent from August, according to the median estimate of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures due tomorrow. Futures are on the longest losing streak since September. “Oil continues to be heavily impacted by U.S. dollar movements,” said Ben Westmore, minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.
The November contract dropped as much as 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $80.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $80.77 at 11:08 a.m. Singapore time. Futures lost $1.44, or 1.7 percent, to $81.25 on Oct. 15, the lowest settlement since Sept. 30. The market is in its longest pullback since a four day drop through Sept. 17. Prices slipped 1.7 percent last week and are up 1.8 percent this year. Brent crude for December settlement declined as much as 65 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $81.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract on Oct. 15 dropped $1.75, or 2.1 percent, to $82.45......Read the entire article.
World financial markets were influenced by 2 important themes last week. These themes are expected to affect investment appetite and asset price movements in the medium term. The first is Fed's return to quantitative easing. As indicated in the September FOMC statement, most Fed members inclined to implementing additional easing measures to boost the economy. Apart from buying long term Treasury securities, members also talked about strategies to anchor inflation expectations.
These views were echoed by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke during his speech at a Boston Fed conference on Friday. Bernanke said the Fed may expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement. He said that 'there would appear, all else being equal, to be a case for further action'.
Speculations for further QE have sent the dollar to a 15-year low against the yen and the USD index to the lowest level since December 11. Weakness in USD has caused abundant capitals flowing into emerging countries and pushed currencies in these countries higher. This has triggered some sorts of 'intervention' in emerging markets. For instance, Brazil and South Korea are stepping up attempts to control their currencies. This round of currency tensions have been driven by global economic imbalances.
While advanced economies have been trying to depreciate their currencies and urge emerging countries (such as China) to speed up appreciation, emerging economies are unwilling to accept the 'beggar thy neighbor' policy. The new rounds of QE and currency tensions are particularly influential for gold and the precious metal complex......Read the entire article.
