Oil N'Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 6th

Crude oil finally broken out of the consolidations from 84.43 and resumed the up trend to as high as 87.43. The close above 87.15 key resistance indicates that medium term rise is resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 64.23 to 82.97 from 70.76 at 89.50 next. On the downside, below 85.96 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 79.25 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the close above 87.15 key resistance indicates that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further should now be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. On the downside, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening Nov. 5th

The S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extends this fall's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1182.06 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1224.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1191.86. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1182.06.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.22. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.55. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.93.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.207 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.187. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.207. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.500. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.390.

Gold closed higher on Friday and posted another new all time high as it extends this year's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1398.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1352.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.


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George Soros Raises InterOil Stake

Soros Fund Management just filed an amended 13G with the SEC regarding their position in InterOil (IOC). Per activity on October 25th, George Soros' hedge fund now shows an 11.9% ownership stake in IOC with 5,257,422 shares. This comes after we just disclosed that Soros boosted stakes in two other positions.

Of this total, 1,200,000 shares are represented by call options. Since the second quarter ended, Soros has increased their position size by 53.5%. Interestingly enough, InterOil just yesterday afternoon announced that they would offer convertible senior notes due 2015 and common shares to raise proceeds of up to $280 million.

InterOil has been somewhat of a controversial stock in the hedge fund world. While Soros has amassed a hefty long position, Whitney Tilson's hedge fund T2 Partners has been an ardent detractor of the company as they are short IOC. Soros has clearly been the winner on this play thus far and we'll have to see what happens in the future.

Courtesy of Google Finance


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Finding Opportunity in Marathon Oil

Stephanie Link explains why Marathon Oil's stock dropped after reporting a good quarter and how she advises.



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Phil Flynn: I Was Dreaming When I Wrote This

Forgive me if it goes astray, but when I woke up this mornin', could sworn it was judgment day. The sky was all purple, there were bulls running' everywhere. Trying' to run from the destruction, you know they didn't even care. 'Cuz they say the QE2 billion zeros printed party started, oops out of time! So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929. I was dreaming' when I wrote this, the markets ran so fast, but commodities are just a party, and parties weren't meant to last, there is danger all around us, my mind says prepare fly, but for now we must enjoy it and party like its 1929. Yeah, everybody's got a printing press and we could all die any day. But before I'll let that happen, I'll dance my life away. So tonight we gonna, we gonna (Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929) Say it 1 more time

Two trillion dollars printed. Oops out of time. No, no. So tonight we gonna, we gonna (Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929). Let's get this party started! The Fed is coming out so let’s get this party stared! Forget about the Fed taking away the punch bowl, let’s face it they are trying to get everybody drunk and wow what a party! Remember when the Fed thought that irrational exuberance was a bad thing? With QE2 they want to get us woozy and keep us feeling that way. Of course sometimes when you are drunk you kind of forget about the consequences of the hangover when you wake in the morning.

Stocks hit two year high the highest level since Lehman brothers went belly up. Gold hit a record high! Oil is at the highest level since April! Silver soars! Beans trying for the teens! Forget about tomorrow, live for today and just keep drinking and don’t worry about the consequences. Just as long as we don’t have to wake up. Hyper Inflation! Forget about it! Struggling consumers racked with unemployment and food and energy bills! Who cares! How about deflation in......Read the entire article.



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Bloomberg:Crude Oil Trades Near Two Year High, RSI Signals Reversal

Crude oil traded near its highest level in two years in New York as the dollar headed for a weekly decline against most major counterparts after the Federal Reserve’s decision to purchase more debt to boost the U.S. economy.

Crude’s 6.6 percent rally this week, driven by the dollar’s decline, may be about to end, according to a technical indicator used by traders. The U.S. currency has fallen versus all but one of its 16 most traded peers since the Fed said Nov. 3 it will buy about $75 billion of Treasuries every month through June.

“Underlying demand in the industrialized world is still not enough to justify these price levels,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank AG. “But market sentiment is so strong that if the weakness of the dollar persists I couldn’t rule out higher prices.”

Oil for December delivery traded at $86.83 a barrel, up 34 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:51 p.m. London time. The contract earlier rose to $87.22, the highest price since Oct. 9, 2008. Brent crude for December settlement rose 16 cents to $88.16 after advancing to $88.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Futures advanced after a U.S. government report showed payrolls rose more than forecast in October. Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The jobless rate held at 9.6 percent, in line with forecasts. Crude oil's relative strength index......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Nov. 5th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.91 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.22
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 86.08

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.72


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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Soars as Dollar Tumbles

Crude oil climbed to a six month high Thursday as the dollar fell on news of the Fed's latest economic stimulus effort. Crude for December delivery added $1.80 Thursday, settling at $86.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The Federal Reserve's decision to buy an additional $600 billion in bonds contributed to the dollar plummeting to a nine month low against the euro. The dollar has been weakening since late August in anticipation of additional quantitative easing. As more money is printed the value of the dollar weakens, leading to cheaper commodities for foreign currency holders. The greenback fell to $1.42 against the euro Thursday, the lowest since Jan. 20.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bumped its global oil consumption estimates by 800,000 barrels a day for 2014. OPEC's 5.1 percent, or 89.9 million barrels a day, increase signifies a continuing recovery. Crude futures traded from $84.92 to $86.83 Thursday. Natural gas prices settled up 2 cents Thursday at $3.86 per thousand cubic feet on the NYMEX. Although the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported 67 billion cubic feet in gas inventories for the week ended Oct. 29, analysts predict traders buying gas futures ahead of cooler temperatures. Gas consumption increases in periods of extreme temperatures.

The intraday range for natural gas was $3.74 to $3.90. Gasoline prices also finished higher Thursday, settling 4.15 cents higher at $2.18 a gallon. December gasoline peaked at $2.18 after bottoming out at $2.14.

Courtesy of Rigzone.Com

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Sharon Epperson: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Thursday Evening Nov. 4th

The S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Thursday and above April's high crossing at 1203.00. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1178.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1215.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1187.12. Second support is the 2 day moving average crossing at 1178.68.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.76.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. If December extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.207 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.187. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.207. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.500. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.390.

Gold soared sharply higher on Thursday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, October's high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1303.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1384.80. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1388.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1303.50.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off this year's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.


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