Another War and Then Another War and Then… What is This Groundhog Day?

If you haven’t heard the latest news about North Korea attacking and making aggressive moves towards Yeonpyeonga, a small South Korean island, you missed what moved the gold market today. South Korea scrambled fighter jets and returned artillery fire after North Korea provoked the peninsula’s most serious confrontation in decades.

What you probably did not know was the $20 move up in gold today was signaled the day before by our “Trade Triangles.” How was this possible? It has everything to do with some very cool technology developed by MarketClub.

Yesterday, MarketClub through its “Trade Triangle” technology flashed a buy signal in gold. This was 24 hours before today’s big up move! How could it be possible that a technology could know what was going to happen before it happens?

Share

North Korean Military Action Pressures U.S. Markets, Sends Gold and Dollar Sharply Higher

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking and a stronger U.S. Dollar led mostly by North Korean artillery fire, consolidating some of last week's short covering rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1206.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off last week's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1206.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.85 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.47. First support is today's low crossing at 80.28. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.973 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.290. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.015. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.973.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1365.10 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1382.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1388.10. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher due to world economic concerns on Tuesday and at the same time renewing this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.24.


Crude Oil - The New World Currency

Share

A Stunning Silver Forecast Comes True, What Next?

From guest analyst David A. Banister at The Market Trend Forecast.com.....

In latter August I penned a forecast for my subscribers to TMTF on Silver, and below is a brief excerpt from August 31st:

I believe Silver is about to stage a pretty large advance based loosely on the Elliott Wave pattern I see unfolding after a 9 odd month consolidation. (Obviously, there are also fundamental fiat currency/debt events worldwide that give it the underlying bull chart pattern). Since the average person can’t run out and buy an ounce of Gold for $1,240 tomorrow, as the unfolding of the fiat crises continues to enter the public psyche, you will see a strong populace movement into buying silver, silver coins, etc. To wit, many silver stocks are moving up strongly of late, signally an imminent breakout of this precious and industrial metal.

The triangle pattern has taken nearly 9 months so far, and a move over $19.50 could start a multi-month run targeting $26-$29 per ounce for starters before a broad pullback.

I bring this up now, some 11 weeks later because Silver did in fact rally up from around $19 per ounce to $29 per ounce, and this was forecast well in advance using my crowd behavioral methodology and pattern recognition. The explosion in price I predicted happened much faster than even I expected, but does show the power of the crowds as they take hold of a new trend or a perceived trend and run with it. Part of the theory to be long silver also had to do with it being “poor man’s Gold”, which I indicated in my forecast. This is also crowd psychology in it’s finest form. People perceive Gold to be “too expensive”, but they can buy silver for only $29 an ounce. To wit, most investors do not really understand the difference between a stock that has 2 billion shares outstanding and one that has 20 million shares outstanding, they only care about price. They often think if a stock is $2 it’s “cheaper” than the stock at $100, little do they realize that a $2 stock that goes to $1 is a 50% loss, but they perceive that as a small risk due to the price. With Silver, you have the mom and pops running out and buying it because it’s “cheaper” than Gold.

Now that Silver has run to $29, my target, and then dropped back, what should expect next? Well, we are in that “broad pullback” I mentioned back in late August that would occur once $29 was hit. Technically speaking and looking at typical crowd behavior, I am expecting consolidation to continue for awhile under $29 per ounce. I call this recent pattern an A B C rally, and once the C wave ends at $29 in this case, forecasting the next move is extremely difficult and can be exasperating. The C wave ran from $19 to $29, and at the tops of those moves everyone is bullish and breathless. Figuring out how the crowd behaves after those patterns is similar to pulling a rabbit out of a hat. With that said, I would expect a 38-50% retracement of the $10 move to about $24 an ounce worst case, and then we should re-attack the $29 highs and likely move into the $32-$34 per ounce range within the next 60 days or so. Silver will continue to out-perform Gold for the foreseeable future as well if I’m right. It appears by my chart below that we already had our initial corrective low, and now we will consolidate and break out.

Consider subscribing to our free reports today by going to Market Trend Forecast.Com, and there you can take advantage of a one time coupon as well. I cover the SP 500, Gold, and Silver on a regular basis.

Share

Spotting a Trend Reversal in Gold Prices

Jeb Handwerger, editor of GoldStockTrades.com, reveals how he is planning to spot a trend reversal in gold prices.



Gold, Oil & Index ETF Trading Analysis

Share

Crude Oil on the Defensive

From guest blogger Tim Seymour.....

Between technical factors and a new outbreak of nerves in the Korean peninsula, oil prices are continuing their recent decline this morning. Good chance to shake out the speculators. West Texas Intermediate crude is down another 1% in early trading, cracking back below the $81 level. Traders say the market is reacting to a combination of factors, including the fresh hostilities that emerged overnight between Pyongyang and Seoul, along with rumors that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il is dead or dying.

While less dramatic, the dollar is playing a role here too. The dollar index (DXY) has blown through resistance and is now trading back above 79 this morning, largely due to the euro's bailout concerns and a bit of a flight to safe havens bid in global markets. As the dollar appreciates, commodity prices, from oil on down, naturally feel the pressure. And oil in particular is not in bullish technical shape. The price action has already broken below the 50 and 200 day moving averages and is now in the process of testing the 100 day trend as well.

Plenty of guys have been hiding out in the oil market and this is a chance to shake them out. Speculative long positions came down a bit last week, according to the CFTC, but remain very elevated. Meanwhile, look to see USO and the rest of the oil patch decline.

Posted courtesy of Emerging Markets.Com


Share

Phil Flynn: Crude Oil Is Shell Shocked

North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean Island is raising fears of a global catastrophe and the impact on oil might be dramatic. Overnight in what is being called the most aggressive attack since the Korean War Cease fire back in 1953 North Korea's shelling of South Korea is shaking up global commodity markets. Oil prices are falling with traders seeking safe haven in the US dollar as they wait and try to figure out just what the heck is behind North Korea's aggressive action. North Korea, without provocation, decided to shell a South Korean Island and as reported by the New York Times.

“North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire on Tuesday after dozens of shells fired from the North struck a South Korean Island near the countries’ disputed maritime border. Two South Korean soldiers were killed, 15 were wounded and three civilians were injured", said Kiyheon Kwon, an official at the Defense Ministry. Reuters News reported, “South Korea has warned North Korea it would “sternly retaliate” to any further provocations. There may be a lot of reasons for North Korea’s action. Perhaps it is because their secret nuclear weapons facility was exposed. That led to reports that South Korea’s defense minister saying that South Korea might again might hoist......Read the entire article.




Share

Financial Markets Tumble on Geopolitical Tensions and Fears over China's Demand

What happened today has drawn a bit of the market focus from sovereign crisis in peripheral European economies. Unfortunately, the incidents only hurt market sentiment further, instead of recovering it. South Korean military reported that North and South Korea exchanged military fire this morning and at least 1 South Korean soldier was killed and 13 injured. Korean won and many Asian currencies weakened as investors sought shelter in the US dollar.

News said that China's biggest banks are close to reach their lending quotas and will stop making new loans to avoid exceeding the limits. Commodities especially oil and base metal prices were pressured as curbs in lending would slow investments and hence demand growth. Gold price remained resilient although early gains were partly pared amid broad based decline in commodity prices.

Tensions between the two Koreas have intensified since March when the sinking of a South Korean warship killed 6 sailors. North Korea denied any responsibility. Yonhap News reported North Korea the morning fired tens of artillery shells near the western border with South Korea, in prompting the South's military to fire back.

The attack has caused at least 1 South Korean soldier was killed and 13 injured. Market sentiment has been badly hurt with equities and growth currencies slumping. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan tumbled more than -2%. While South Korea's KOSPI index slipped -0.79%, Hong Kong's HSI plunged -2.67%, Singapore's Strait Times Index fell -2.03% while China's Shanghai Composite Index slid -1.94%. Korean Won fell -2.60% against the dollar while other currencies also fell.

Rumors said Chinese banks such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China have almost reached their annual lending quotas and will only lend as existing loans are repaid. New loans have reached RMB6.9 trillion as of November, approaching the government's cap of RMB7.5 trillion for the full year. Also weighed on commodity prices was the Customs' final trade data for October. Several commodities showed decline in imports, raising fears that China's demand has moderated. For instance, imports for both copper concentrate and refined copper tumbled -30% m/m in October. Imports for nickel, zinc and lead also contracted during the month.......Read the entire article and charts.



Check out Some of Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Share

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Nov. 23rd

Crude oil was lower overnight as it poised to extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.47 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.47
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 89.10

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 81.76

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.65
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56


What do Super Traders have in common?

Share

Venezuelan Black Sea Oil Route Threatens European Supplies

Deliveries of Venezuelan crude to Belarus from the Black Sea may pose a threat to Russian oil supplies bound for central Europe, Russia’s pipeline operator OAO Transneft said. Transneft is preparing a letter to the European Union explaining the situation, Igor Dyomin, a Transneft spokesman, said by telephone in Moscow. “The decision has increased risks to Russian oil deliveries to Europe,” he said.

Belarus reversed the direction of one line in the Druzhba link’s southern branch on Nov. 21 to carry crude east to the Mozyr refinery, Dyomin said. The branch’s parallel line continues to carry Russian oil west to the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary and Germany, he said.
Russia and Belarus, which are developing a customs union with Kazakhstan, have clashed over oil export taxes as Russia moved to roll back a discount that allowed Belarus to benefit from cheap oil supplies. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the duty may be canceled once a free-trade area is created.

Belarus plans to take delivery of as much as 9 million metric tons of crude from Venezuela next year, a Belarusian presidential administration official said in September. Belarus’s use of the line means Transneft won’t be able to increase deliveries via Druzhba’s southern branch to meet additional winter demand and won’t have an alternative route in case of an accident, Dyomin said.

Transneft supplies to Europe have continued uninterrupted through the second line of Druzhba, which is operating at slightly more than its capacity of 17.5 million tons a year, Dyomin said. The crude Belarus received was Russian oil that Venezuela obtained via a swap at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Dyomin said. The 80,000 ton cargo was carried from the Black Sea to Belarus via Ukraine’s Odessa-Brody pipeline, Dyomin said. The next delivery, of 78,200 tons of oil, is scheduled to arrive at the Odessa port on Nov. 25, Kommersant-Ukraine said yesterday.

“Why Belarus can’t take that same oil via Druzhba is beyond my understanding,” Dyomin said.


Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News. Reporter Stephen Bierman can be contacted in Moscow at sbierman1@bloomberg.net.



Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

Share

Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Settles Lower on Weaker Euro

Crude oil on the January contract ended the day at $81.74, a .24 cent decline from Friday, as the euro slipped 0.4 percent against the greenback. Although Ireland has agreed to a bailout plan from the European Union to shore up its banks amid a serious debt crisis, lingering concerns that Portugal and Spain are the next EU countries in line for bailouts were bearish for the euro. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes it less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

January crude traded within a range from $80.68 to $82.87 Monday. Oil settled at $81.51 Friday on the December contract, which has expired.

The National Weather Service expects the Midwest and Northeast to experience colder than normal temperatures through next week. Given the regions' anticipated greater electricity demand during this period, December natural gas settled 11 cents higher at $4.27 per thousand cubic feet. It traded from $4.125 to $4.28.

Although the American Automobile Association expects more motorists to be on the road for this year's Thanksgiving holiday, December gasoline ended the day a nickel lower at $2.15 per gallon. The front month gasoline price fluctuated Monday from $2.13 to $2.215.

Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Effect Your Pocketbook in 2010

Share