Fridays Open Becomes Critical For Oil Bulls to Gain The Upper Hand

Crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and RSI are overbought but todays bullish close signals that the oil bulls have gained some momentum. Solid follow through is a must on Friday if the bearish trend is to come to an end anytime soon.

Oil companies with workers in the Gulf of Mexico helped to push prices to a 4 week high as evacuations started on rigs operating in the Gulf. Traders appear to be pricing in supply disruption well ahead of the storm.

Crude oil is at the top of the Donchian Trading Channel and is heavily overbought. We would not be surprised to see a pullback from current levels. At the present time our long term monthly Trade Triangle is negative, while our short term daily and weekly Trade Triangles are positive. This is creating a mixed picture for crude oil.

However, the longer term monthly Trade Triangle must be given more weight than either the daily or weekly Trade Triangles. We expect this market to pull back from current levels and from the top of its Donchian Trading Channel.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 89.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 71.72 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 89.19. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 94.26. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.38. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.15.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

Crude Oil Bears Enjoying Strong Resistance at 89.54

Crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and we remain bearish with 89.54 support turned resistance still providing crude oil bears with some of the strongest resistance we have seen in some time.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 89.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.52 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 71.73 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 89.54. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 94.35. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.52. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.95. Crude oil pivot point for Thursday trading is 88.67.

Dollar’s On the Verge of a Relief Rally...... Look Out!

From Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com........

Let’s talk about the dollar for a moment… The US Dollar has been stuck in a very large trading range during the past 4 months. But when the dollar actually breaks out of this pattern in either direction we should see some big price movements across the board in stocks and commodities.

From July through mid-August I was bearish on the dollar. But over the past 2 weeks the price action has become more neutral/bullish in my opinion. Its clear there is still indecision with the dollar value because every surge in price either up or down is quickly followed by a surge in the opposite direction. The key here is that the support level down at the 73.50 area has held more than three times and now I think the downward momentum is about to shift. The UUP bullish dollar etf is a good option.

Dollar Index Chart

Gold Chart:
Looking at the gold chart I see potential for another sharp drop to the low $1600’s. While I like the look of this chart for lower prices there is still a wild card which is the Euro-Land issues… I’m not willing to bet on lower prices because we could wake up any day to some poor news which instantly sends gold higher. Rather I am waiting for things to unfold then look to buy again for another 10-20% gain on the next rally.

Crude Oil Chart:
This chart is straight forward… The trend is down and at this time all bounces are to be looked at as shorting opportunities.

SP500 Index:
The equities market has broken down sharply over the past couple months and now we are seeing a rebound and small cap stocks are making big gains. With the dollar looking bullish and stocks trading up at resistance I have a feeling we may see another downward move within the next week or so to test the lows or make a new low before putting in a real bottom.

Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel the market overall is leaning towards lower prices in the coming week or two. After that we will have to re-analyze because it may be a fantastic buying opportunity for stocks and commodities. Consider joining me at The Gold And Oil Guy for ETF trade ideas on the SP500, Oil, Gold, and Silver with great accuracy. 

Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Edges Lower on Government Data

Crude oil futures reversed yesterday's upward move on government reports indicating a rise in oil stockpiles. Light, sweet crude ended a four day winning streak Wednesday, settling 9 cents lower at $88.81 a barrel. Meanwhile, its European counterpart gained 83 cents to settle at $114.85 a barrel.

The U.S. Department of Energy reported an increase in oil inventories by 5.3 million barrels and a 2.8 million barrel drop in gasoline stockpiles. The build in oil inventories was outweighed by the draw in gasoline stockpiles, stifling the drop in crude prices.

In a choppy trading session, crude traded within a range of $87.67 to $89.54 while Brent crude fluctuated between $113.68 and $115.14. Traders remain wary of Tropical Storm Katia, located in the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center said Katia has a 30 percent chance of becoming a hurricane later Wednesday.

Front month natural gas passed the $4 mark for the first time Wednesday since Aug. 15. Natural gas advanced 14.5 cents to end the trading session at $4.05 per thousand cubic feet. Prices received a boost Wednesday as the Destin Pipeline, a major pipeline that transports gas from offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico to processing facilities in Mississippi, was shut down. Owner BP did not say how long the pipeline would remain offline.

September gasoline gained 4 cents, or 1.2 percent, settling at $3.03 a gallon at expiration. The intraday range for gasoline prices was $3.002 to $3.057.

Posted courtesy of  Rigzone.Com

Oil N Gold: Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil's choppy recovery extends further by taking out 89.00 resistance and reaches as high as 89.21 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise could be seen. Focus is now on 89.61 support turned resistance We'll stay bearish as long as this resistance holds and expect reversal soon. Below 82.95 will flip bias back to the downside for 75.71 support first. Break will resume whole decline from 114.83 towards 70 psychological level. However, sustained trading above 89.61 will argue that the near term trend in crude oil might have reversed and will bring stronger rebound towards 100.62 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. However, break of 100.62 resistance will indicate that fall from 114.83 has completed after meeting missing 100% projection target. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 114.83.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart at Oil N Gold.Com

Sharon Epperson: Where is Gold and Commodities Headed on Wednesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

Adam Hewison: Is The Market Ready For A Rally?

The equity markets put in a very strong performance yesterday, pushing to their best levels since August 5th. We would not be surprised to see this very overbought market possibly rally to the 1230 area and 1250 zone.

The gold market once again bounced over the $1,800 an ounce hurdle and is currently trading at $1,822. This market needs to regroup further if it is going to challenge the $2000 level. The trend is in a positive mode despite the recent $200 pullback.

Crude oil is now very much overbought and approaching the upper levels of the Donchian trading channel. We expect that this channel and the fact that this market is overbought will provide enough resistance to any halt any further upside action.

The dollar index continues to bounce off the support level of 73.50 which we have outlined on numerous occasions. Currently this market is trading at 74.00. The CRB index has rallied quite dramatically after making a low on August 9th. This market is largely reflective of the move in crude oil.

Now, let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

The S&P 500 index rallied to its best levels since August 5th. However, this market is heavily overbought and we still view the longer term trend, based on our monthly Trade Triangle, as negative for this market. We would not rule out a potential rally to the 1230 level or even the 1259 level, both of which represent Fibonacci retracements. You may remember that the 1250 area was key support in this index. It would not be unusual for the market to go back up and test this level now as resistance.

SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85

The silver market is definitely the stepchild of the metals market and would appear to be regrouping around the $41.00 level. Both of our intermediate and long term indicators are friendly to the silver market and we would not rule out further strength in the near term. The Williams % R indicator is trading around –50 and it is neither oversold nor overbought at this time.

GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85

The gold market appears to be settling down around the $1,800 an ounce level and with our intermediate and longer term indicators still positive, we must remain in the bullish camp for now. It would appear as though the $1,770 level should provide some support on any pullbacks in this market.

The goal market is in the mid range of its major oscillator, the Williams % R, and therefore is not giving us any clues as to its next swing direction. We would imagine a move over $1,850 will be a very positive indicator for gold. Both intermediate and long term traders should maintain long positions with money management stops in place.

CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65

Please note that our comments are based on the October contract. The 89.19 level we mentioned yesterday was enough to stop the current rally today. The crude oil October contract is very close to the top of the Donchian trading channel. On top of that, the market is extremely overbought and we would not be surprised to see a pullback from current levels. At the present time our long term indicator is negative and our short term weekly Trade Triangle is positive, sending a mixed picture for crude oil. However, the longer term monthly Trade Triangle must be given more weight then the two shorter term ones.

DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 60

Once again the dollar index bounced from the support level at 73.50. The market traded over the 74 level after finding support at 73.50. With a Chart Analysis Score of –60 we would want to trade this market using our Donchian Trading Channels and our Williams %R indicator. The index remains below its 200 day moving average while our longer term Trade Triangle remains positive.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60

This index has put in a good performance largely through the move up in crude oil and other commodity type markets. At the moment our indicators are mixed, indicating the absence of a strong trend in either direction. The CRB index is overbought and also at the top of the Donchian trading channel.

We would not be surprised to see some profit taking coming in to this market and a pullback from current levels. Our bias is towards inflation in the future, but I’m expecting to see more of a two way market in this index in the next week or so. Intermediate and short term traders should be out of the market and on the sidelines at the present time.

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Federal Reserve Statements Give Bulls the Upside Momentum

Crude oil closed up $1.49 a barrel at $88.76 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh three week high as the bulls gained some more upside technical momentum today. Prices have been trending higher for three weeks. Today, the crude market got a boost when a U.S. Federal Reserve governor hinted at more quantitative easing, which would be bullish for commodities.

Natural gas closed up 8.4 cents at $3.914 today. Prices closed near the session high today and did hit another fresh contract low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.024.

Gold futures closed up $37.40 an ounce at $1,829.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw bargain hunting and some fresh safe haven buying interest after a U.S. Federal Reserve Board governor said he wanted aggressive easing of monetary policy by the Fed and was worried about the U.S. economic recovery.

The gold bulls have made a strong recovery from last week's spike low on the daily chart, to suggest last week's low will become a "reaction low" on the daily bar chart. If prices can continue to work sideways to higher in the near term, then bulls would gain confidence the uptrend on the daily chart has been restarted.

Don Hodges: Despite Fall in Oil Prices, Buy Haliburton, Devon and Sandridge

Don Hodges, portfolio manager for the Hodges Fund, says energy plays like Halliburton, Devon and SandRidge are still moneymakers despite the drop in oil prices.

Positive Consumer Spending Report Lifts Oil and Equities

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rally on positive consumer spending reports. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 89.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If crude oil renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 71.72 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 89.19. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 95.01. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.38. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.15.