How Cheap is Natural Gas?

How cheap is natural gas? The EIA tells us winter (November-March) natural gas futures prices are near their lowest levels since 2001-2002.

The average natural gas futures price for the upcoming winter is less than $4 per million British thermal units, the lowest level entering the winter since 2001-2002. The so called "winter strip," the average natural gas futures price for the contract months November through March as settled on the New York Mercantile Exchange is a closely followed measure of market participants' price expectations.

In markets such as New England and California, where natural gas prices often set on peak, wholesale power prices, the NYMEX winter strip for natural gas also can influence expectations for forward wholesale power prices.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bloomberg, L.P.
Note: October 20 was selected because it represents a date near the start of the natural gas winter heating season yet still has information for five months of the upcoming winter's natural gas NYMEX future's strip.


These prices do not reflect expectations for the cost of transporting natural gas from Henry Hub to downstream market locations. The Henry Hub, in Erath, Louisiana, is the physical delivery location for the NYMEX natural gas futures contract. Sabine Pipeline is the operator of the Henry Hub. 

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Crude Oil Bulls Take Solid Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed up $1.25 a barrel at $95.51 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three month high today. Crude bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today. Prices are in a five week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 8.6 cents at $3.697 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored another fresh contract low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

December gold futures closed up $35.90 an ounce at $1,792.10 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit another fresh six week high. Strong safe haven buying interest was seen amid the EU turmoil that is now focusing on Italy. Bulls have solid the overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside technical momentum today.


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Phil Flynn: Will He Stay Or Will He Go

No Not Papandreou he was so over the weekend. No the question is all about Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

While Greece has a new coalition government in place now the focus is on Italy and whether Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will resign and open up the gridlock that has slowed the reforms that are needed to keep Italy of becoming more like Greece.

The markets have a lack of confidence in Berlusconi after many broken promises on reform and rallied on the prospect that Berlusconi was gone. For oil it is headline to headline.
We will be looking to play ranges!


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How to Trade This Headline Driven Stock Market

With all eyes on the unemployment report and Europe, the CME Group’s PR Department nearly created an all out panic with their announcement after the market close on Friday relating to futures maintenance margin. The original statement was vague and I was quite concerned until I checked out the CME Group’s web page and the PR Department sent an update clarifying their position. At this point I think the crisis has been averted, but this is just another reminder that we live in “interesting times.”

Keep in mind that if the CME starts raising margin rates across the board for futures contracts in order to protect themselves stocks and commodities could collapse. Silver recently has is margin rates increased and silver since then dropped 25% in value. So imagine if they raised the rates for more commodities…

The current price action in the marketplace pales in comparison to the world’s geopolitical tensions and deteriorating social mood. 

In my trading career, I have never seen the price action in the indices react so violently to intraday headlines and rumors. Risk is high and the types of traders profiting from this market are day traders and very short term traders with trades lasting just a couple hours to 24 hours in length. Aggressive trading which small position sizes is all that can be done right now. This is not meant to be investment advice, but more as a function of the market environment in which we find ourselves currently trading within.

Right now it is hard to say where price action in the broader indices heads in the short run.  One headline out of Greece or Italy could dramatically alter economic history. In the intermediate term I remain neutral to bearish for a number of reasons. One indicator I follow is the bullish percent index on the S&P 500 which at this point is arguing for lower prices.

The chart below illustrates the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index:

As can be seen above, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is presently at an overbought status. When looking at the relative strength and full stochastics indicators one would argue that a pullback is warranted. Historically when the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is this overbought, a pullback ensues which ultimately sees the S&P 500 Index selloff. The more arduous task is trying to determine just how deep the pullback on the S&P 500 Index might be.

It is critical to point out that while I do believe a pullback is likely, I will not rule out a rally into the holiday season. Much of the near term price action is going to be dictated by headlines coming out of Greece and the rest of Europe. In addition to Greece, Italy is also starting to see increased concern regarding an unsustainable fiscal condition. Depending on how the European Union handles the varying degrees of risk in the near term, we could see price action react violently in either direction.

With the market capable of moving in either direction, I wanted to point out some key price levels which should act as clues regarding potential future price action in the S&P 500. The two key support levels to monitor on the S&P 500 Index are the 1,240 and 1,220 price levels.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index below illustrates the price levels:

For bullish traders and investors the key price level to monitor is the recent highs on the S&P 500 around the 1,290 area. The weekly chart below demonstrates why this price level is critical and which overhead levels will offer additional resistance should the recent highs be taken out to the upside.

SP500 Weekly Chart Analysis:

While I am neutral in the intermediate to longer term presently, in the short run I have to lean slightly bearish simply because of the future headline risk and also because a major head and shoulders pattern has been carved out on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index. This type of chart pattern is synonymous with bearish price action.

The hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

Right now I remain slightly bearish, but should the head and shoulders pattern fail and/or we begin to see multiple positive reactions to news coming out of Europe a strong rally into the holiday season is likely. Unfortunately all we can do is monitor the key price levels and wait patiently for Mr. Market to tip his hand.

Until we see a breakout in either direction, we could see price action inhabit the 1,220 – 1,290 price range for several weeks before we get any more clarity of future direction. Until I see a breakout, I will remain relatively neutral with a slight short term bias to the downside based on price patterns in the shorter term time frames. This is a tough market to trade in, and I don’t want to get chopped around or do any heavy lifting. I’m going to focus my attention on high probability, low risk trade setups until directional biased trades make more sense.

In closing, I will leave you with the thoughtful muse of the late Texas Congresswoman Barbara Jordan,

“For all of its uncertainty, we cannot flee the future.”

Market Analysis and Thoughts By:

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Videos & Trade Alerts

JW Jones – Options Trading videos & Options Alerts

Ex-Credit Suisse Oil Head McKenna Starts Mastic Hedge Fund

Kieran McKenna, who traded oil for Credit Suisse AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co., started a hedge fund that will accept money from outside investors next month, according to Mastic Investment Advisory AG, his new company.

The Mastic Commodity Fund, based in Zug, Switzerland, will begin trading oil and energy products this month with partners’ capital, Mastic Investment said in an email. McKenna resigned from Credit Suisse as global head of oil in July to set up the firm. He declined to give details on the fund’s size or targets.

McKenna, 36, joins ex bankers from firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley who have set up hedge funds after the Volcker rule limited risk taking by banks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008.

“We have seen no let up in appetite from investors looking to back new ventures if you can present them with managers with a good pedigree and track record,” said Daniel Caplan, a managing director in London for Deutsche Bank AG’s unit that provides leverage to hedge funds and helps them raise money from investors. “That’s true across all asset classes.”

Money managers founded 578 new hedge funds in 2011 through June, the best six months for startups since the first half of 2007, according to data from Chicago based Hedge Fund Research Inc. that covers all types of hedge fund.

The Mastic fund will make “extensive use” of options and has a relative value biased strategy, according to the company’s email. “There are contrasting outlooks from the fundamental hydrocarbon supply and demand balance issues that remain unresolved,” McKenna said.

Brent-WTI Spread

Relative value investment strategies seek to profit by targeting price gaps between different commodities, or different grades of the same commodity. They can also seek to exploit differences between maturity dates for the same commodity.

West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark grade, rallied 18 percent last month as U.S. demand increased and inventories declined in Cushing, Oklahoma. The December contract traded at $94.33 a barrel at 12:14 p.m. in London.

The gap between WTI and costlier Brent, the standard for more than half of the world’s crude, reached a record $27.88 a barrel on Oct. 14 and was at $17.45 today. Cushing is the largest crude-trading and storage hub in the U.S.

McKenna’s partners in Mastic Investment are John Thompson and Erik Serrano Berntsen, who founded Energy Alpha Strategies Ltd., a London based, commodity focused investment firm. Berntsen is chief operating officer at Mastic Investment.

McKenna’s departure from Credit Suisse came after the Zurich based bank replaced an almost five year trading alliance with Glencore International AG, the world’s largest commodities trader, with a so called consulting agreement in January.

He joined Credit Suisse in 2008 from JPMorgan and became global head of oil and products for the alliance. He was also a senior oil trader at Citadel LLC in Chicago and London. McKenna started his career in 1997 at Goldman Sachs, where he traded North Sea crude and options, according to Mastic Investment.


Posted courtesy of Bloomberg BusinessWeek News.

ONG: Recent Developments Support Gold's Outlook

The G-20 summit ended Friday mainly focused on the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. Two critical developments we observed were Italy's acceptance of surveillance and monitor by the IMF, as well as the failure to agree on the use of IMF resources. Both are expected to affect market sentiment towards the 17 nation region.

In the IMF program to monitor Italy's progress of the reforms, the world lender will provide independent and frequent assessments of the economic and financial conditions of Italy. It will also review on the Italian government's implementation of the fiscal policy such that credibility will be built up in the government regarding policy implementation.

The G-20 communiqué stated that G-20 countries 'stand ready to ensure additional resources could be mobilised in a timely manner'. The various channels that countries can contribute to the IMF include bilateral contributions, SDRs, and voluntary contributions to an IMF special structure such as an administered account.

AS happened last week was Greece's announcement and cancellation of the referendum of the EU agreement, FOMC meeting as well as ECB meeting. We will discuss in the precious metal section on these issues and their impacts on gold price......Check out Oil N'Gold.Com's commodities price movement charts.


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Crude Oil Bulls Seem to Lack any Strong Conviction on the Upside

The crude oil market continues to inch higher, but seems to lack any strong conviction on the upside. Our short term Trade Triangle moved into a positive position moving the Chart Analysis Score to a +70. However, the December contract for crude oil remains in a trading range bound by $90 a barrel support on the downside, and $95 a barrel resistance on the upside.

With a score of +70 this market maybe trying to move out of its broad trading range. Depending what happens to equity markets and the global economy will likely be reflected in this commodity. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

Monthly oil Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly oil Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily oil Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

Watch todays video covering crude oil and all six markets we cover publicly.


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Sinopec, PetroChina Rise on Speculation Government to Change Fuel Pricing

China Petroleum and Chemical Corp., Asia’s biggest refiner, rose the most in almost three years in Hong Kong trading on speculation the state may allow fuel suppliers including PetroChina Co. to adjust prices on their own.

Sinopec, as China Petroleum is known, gained 8.3 percent, the largest increase since Dec. 8, 2008, to HK$7.92 at the close. PetroChina climbed 3.9 percent, while Cnooc Ltd. (883), whose parent operates a refinery, advanced 5.1 percent. The benchmark Hang Seng Index climbed 3.1 percent.

China, which controls fuel prices to curb inflation, may permit refiners to make “appropriate” changes, China Securities Journal reported, citing an unidentified person. This would mark a further move toward market oriented pricing after China introduced a system in 2008 that linked government mandated changes to swings in benchmark crude prices.....Read the entire Bloomberg article.


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Phil Flynn: Kicking The Cannes Down The Road

Global markets are trying to recover as the ECB provides some cover for the Greeks with a surprise rate cut against a backdrop of some better than expected US economic data. Europe was trying to continue to kick the Greek can down the road and tried to end the charade with a package to head off a Greek default.

Greek PM Papandreou created a world of turmoil proposing a referendum of the EU handouts as the markets gyrated headline after headline. The Greek people want a bailout but they don't want to make the spending cuts that will be necessary. Austerity is no fun, especially when you think you hold Europe and the world hostage and that you can still have your cake and eat it too.

Rumors that Papandreou would resign or that the referendum was off the table created wild swings and crazy things. Yet ECB cut rates helped restore sanity in an insane world.

The market also hoped that the G20 would do the Cannes can and help provide confidence to the global market place. The AP reports, "The United States, China, Germany and other major rich and emerging economies have pledged to fight cross border tax evasion under an agreement approved Friday, which supporters say could raise tens of billions of dollars at a time when indebted European nations are scrambling for more revenue.

The deal approved during the Group of 20 summit adds to a marathon campaign by the United States and the European Union to pressure Switzerland and other tax havens to scrap practices they say help wealthy individuals and companies hide income. Supporters say the agreement could help governments collect tens of billions of dollars in taxes on previously hidden income......Read the entire article.


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Transocean Drops on Biggest Earnings Miss in Half a Decade

Transocean Ltd. (RIG), the world’s largest offshore oil driller, fell the most in almost three years after third quarter earnings missed analysts’ estimates by the biggest margin in at least half a decade.

Transocean declined 12 percent to close at $49 in New York. Earlier, the stock plunged as much as 14 percent for the worst intraday performance since November 2008. After regular trading on U.S. markets closed yesterday, the company posted a loss of $71 million, or 22 cents a share, its largest third quarter loss in at least 10 years.

Excluding one time items such as foreign exchange contract costs associated with last month’s Aker Drilling ASA acquisition, the Vernier, Switzerland based company recorded per share profit of 3 cents, 73 cents lower than the average of 32 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The company “did not deliver” in the third quarter, Chief Executive Officer Steven Newman told analysts and investors on a conference call today.

Manufacturing delays among equipment providers prolonged downtime for rigs subject to more stringent U.S. safety rules imposed in the wake of last year’s Macondo disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, Newman said........Read the entire Bloomberg article.



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