Wall Street Double Talk and Double Opportunity of Falling Oil Price

By Tony Sagami

The stock market has developed a new type of love-hate relationship with the price of oil. In the past, falling oil prices were treated as an economic positive because they freed up more money for Americans to spend on other things, such as dining out or clothing. However, the steep plunge in oil prices has triggered a reverse psychology reaction on Wall Street: falling oil prices are bad because they signal a slowing global economy.

An even bigger head scratcher is the convoluted reaction that rising oil prices are good for the economy. Go figure.

Wall Street’s collective reaction, silly or not, is important because oil prices are what is currently driving the ups and downs of the stock market. And if you can divine the future direction of oil prices… you’ll find yourself on the right side of the stock market roller coaster.

What do I see when I connect the dots? That oil prices will fall even further.

Connecting the Dots #1: Helmerich & Payne. Helmerich & Payne is the largest lessor of oil rig drilling platforms in the US and recently announced that it would lay off up to 2,000 workers and chop its rig construction pace from four to two new oil rigs a month.

Moreover, Helmerich & Payne said that its active rig count has slid from 297 at the end of Q3 2014 to less than 200 today. “The rig count reduction thus far has been more swift than many expected,” said CEO John Lindsay.

And the price that H&P is receiving on that smaller amount of working rigs is falling. The daily revenue per rig is expected to average $27,000 to $27,500 this quarter, well below the $29,457 it received last quarter.

Connecting the Dots #2: Oil Pros Take Flight. For the week ending January 27, noncommercial traders increased their bets for oil prices to fall even more by adding 22,771 short contracts.

NOTE: Investors who use futures as hedges are called “commercial traders” while those who trade for speculation are called “noncommercial traders.”

The professional traders in the commodities pits make mistakes like the rest of us… but they’re right enough to make a living at it, so it’s dangerous to bet against them.

Connecting the Dots #3: Baker Hughes. In the last week of January, U.S. oil producers shut down 94 drilling rigs, which is the largest one week shutdown in 28 years!

That leaves 1,233 active rigs in North America—a three-year low.

Connecting the Dots #4: Supply Glut. The US Department of Energy reported that crude-oil stockpiles reached 406.7 million barrels in January, the highest level since the government started keeping records in 1982.

Higher supplies wouldn’t be an issue if demand were keeping pace, but thanks to improved drilling technology (fracking), the US is now awash in oil.

Connecting the Dots #5: USW Strike. Adding to the oil-patch pain, the strike of 3,800 members of the United Steelworkers union from nine refineries and chemical plants that process roughly 10% of US gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

There are many ways to profit from falling oil prices, such as airlines and trucking stocks, but the most profitable is by betting against the companies that supply oil drilling equipment.

The Philadelphia Oil Services Index (OSX) is a price-weighted index composed of 15 companies that provide oil drilling and production services, oil field equipment, and support services.

If you’re confident that oil prices are headed lower, you can buy put options on the OSX index. And if you’re right… you’ll make a bundle. For example, my Rational Bear subscribers made over 200% in a few short weeks.

I’m not suggesting that you rush out and make big bets on oil prices tomorrow morning. As always, timing is everything, so wait for my next signal; but I am very confident that the profits of oil services companies are headed for the toilet.


Tony Sagami

30-year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.

The article Connecting the Dots: Wall Street Double Talk and Double Opportunity of Falling Oil Price was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Counts

Baker Hughes $BHI has released it's weekly rig counts for North America and the U.S.

BHI Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 1929 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is up 1 rig from last week to 1929, with oil rigs down 4 to 1574, gas rigs up 5 to 355, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

U.S. Rig Count is up 168 rigs from last year at 1761, with oil rigs up 187, gas rigs down 14, and miscellaneous rigs down 5.

The U.S. Offshore rig count is 53, up 1 rig from last week, and down 4 rigs year over year.

BHI Rig Count: Canada +32 to 434 rigs

Canadian Rig Count is up 32 rigs from last week to 434, with oil rigs up 27 to 243, and gas rigs up 5 to 191.

Canadian Rig Count is up 66 rigs from last year at 368, with oil rigs up 43, and gas rigs up 23.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday next week, the NA Rig Count will be distributed on Wednesday, November 26 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Additional information on the rig count is available on the rig count website at www.bakerhughes.com/rigcount.

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Sterne Agee Selects its Four Favorite Oil Services Stocks

Sterne Agee believes non conventional and deepwater drilling will rise steadily during the next few years, and it encourages investors to have exposure to both trends via the highest quality names and in companies with specific catalysts.

The firm thinks WTI crude prices will remain in a fairly stable $85-$95 range over the next two years, rig growth will rise slightly in 2014 and accelerate in 2015, and deepwater drilling visibility will remain strong for several years.

The firm's favorites are Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB) and Oceaneering (OII), with Tetra Technologies (TTI) the top pick among sector small caps.


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Baker Hughes Announces Fourth Quarter 2013 Well Count

Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) announced today that the U.S. onshore well count for the fourth quarter 2013 is 9,056 wells; down 19 wells from the revised 9,075 wells counted in the third quarter 2013. Compared to the fourth quarter 2012, the well count was up 398 wells or 5%. Due to improved drilling efficiencies, the average US onshore drilling rig now produces 9% more wells compared to the same quarter last year.

Compared to the third quarter 2013, the well count increased most notably in the Eagle Ford (up 75 wells or 7%), Mississippian (up 23 wells or 6%) and Marcellus (up 21 wells or 4%) basins. These increases were offset by reductions in the Fayetteville (down 29 wells or 18%) and Granite Wash (down 22 wells or 13%) basins.

The average US onshore rig count for the fourth quarter 2013 was down 12 rigs from the previous quarter at 1,697 rigs. On average, the US onshore rig fleet produced 5.34 new wells during the fourth quarter, representing a 1% improvement in drilling efficiencies compared to the third quarter.

For more detailed Well Count information by basin, including historical well counts and a map, visit www.bakerhughes.com/wellcount.

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Baker Hughes Announces March 2013 Rig Counts

Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) announced today that the international rig count for March 2013 was 1,268, down 7 from the 1,275 counted in February 2013, and up 76 from the 1,192 counted in March 2012. The international offshore rig count for March 2013 was 316, down 7 from the 323 counted in February 2013 and up 13 from the 303 counted in March 2012.

The average U.S. rig count for March 2013 was 1,756, down 6 from the 1,762 counted in February 2013 and down 223 from the 1,979 counted in March 2012. The average Canadian rig count for March 2013 was 464, down 178 from the 642 counted in February 2013 and down 28 from the 492 counted in March 2012.

The worldwide rig count for March 2013 was 3,488, down 191 from the 3,679 counted in February 2013 and down 175 from the 3,663 counted in March 2012.

Here is the March 2013 Rotary Rig Counts by country worldwide


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A Very Important Letter to Shareholders from Transocean RIG

If you own shares in Transocean make sure you read this entire release and make sure you vote. This is a very important vote......

Transocean (NYSE: RIG) today announced that it has commenced the mailing of proxy materials, including a WHITE proxy card and a letter from the Board of Directors, to the company's shareholders of record in advance of the company's 2013 Annual General Meeting ("AGM"), which will be held at 5 p.m. CEST, on May 17, 2013, in Zug, Switzerland. The Proxy Statement and Annual Report are also available through the company's website at http://deepwater.com/ar.

*    The Transocean Board of Directors unanimously recommends that the company's shareholders vote "FOR" a U.S. dollar denominated dividend of $2.24 per share, or approximately $800 million in the aggregate (based upon the number of currently outstanding shares), out of additional paid in capital.

*    The Transocean Board of Directors unanimously recommends that shareholders vote "FOR" the company's five experienced and highly qualified director nominees: Federico F. Curado, Thomas W. Cason, Steven L. Newman, Robert M. Sprague and J. Michael Talbert.

*    The Transocean Board of Directors unanimously recommends that shareholders vote "FOR" the granting of Board authority to issue shares out of the company's authorized share capital. This authority was originally granted at the May 2011 AGM and will expire on May 13, 2013.

*    Shareholders are encouraged to support the Board's recommendations by voting promptly using the company's WHITE proxy card.

*    The letter from the Board of Directors, which follows, discusses Transocean's highly qualified slate of director nominees and reiterates the reasons the proposed $2.24 per share dividend will maximize long term shareholder value. Furthermore, the letter addresses the importance of having the flexibility to pursue value-enhancing opportunities by granting the Board the authority to issue additional shares out of the company's authorized share capital. The Board currently has no plans to exercise this authority.

April 4, 2013....Dear Fellow Transocean Shareholders > Read the entire letter to shareholders


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National Oilwell Varco Announces Second Quarter 2012 Earnings

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National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) today reported that for its second quarter ended June 30, 2012 it earned net income of $605 million, or $1.42 per fully diluted share. Earnings per share increased 26 percent compared to the second quarter of 2011 and were sequentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2012. Excluding transaction charges of $28 million pre tax, second quarter 2012 net income was $626 million, or $1.46 per fully diluted share.

The Company’s revenues for the second quarter of 2012 were $4.7 billion, which improved 10 percent from the first quarter of 2012 and 35 percent from the second quarter of 2011. Operating profit for the second quarter of 2012 was $907 million or 19.2 percent of sales, excluding transaction charges. Year over year second quarter operating profit increased 27 percent and sequentially second quarter operating profit increased three percent.

Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment was $11.28 billion at June 30, 2012, up nine percent from the end of the first quarter and up 46 percent from the end of the second quarter of 2011. During the second quarter of 2012 the Company’s Rig Technology segment booked incoming new capital equipment orders of $2.73 billion (through a combination of $2.22 billion in new orders and $0.51 billion in orders through acquisitions completed during the quarter) offset by revenues out of backlog of $1.82 billion.

Pete Miller, Chairman, President and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, “Our Company achieved strong earnings this quarter, thanks to the hard work of our many dedicated employees. All three segments posted higher sequential and year over year revenues and operating profit, and we are pleased at the high level of demand we continue to see for new drilling equipment.

The Company continues to expand organically as well as through acquisitions. We closed six transactions during the quarter for total consideration of $2.0 billion, to strengthen the technology, product and service offerings we provide our oil and gas customers around the globe. Most markets we serve have remained buoyant, despite lower commodity prices, and we therefore expect solid results for the second half of the year.”

Read the entire earnings report

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Transocean: First Quarter Results Show Company Potential

Transocean (RIG) announced its first quarter 2012 results on May 2, 2012. Here are some of the highlights from this report:

• First quarter revenues totaled $2.331 billion. This is a decrease from the $2.422 billion in revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011.
• First quarter 2012 net income attributable to controlling interest was $42 million. This is a significant improvement from the $6.119 billion loss that was taken during the fourth quarter of 2011. The reason for this huge disparity can be found by looking at the "net unfavorable items" category on the income statement. Transocean had $184 million of such items in the first quarter of 2012. The company had $6.176 billion of such items in the fourth quarter of 2011. If these net unfavorable items are backed out, we can see that Transocean still had a higher net income in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the fourth quarter of 2011: $226 million versus $57 million.
• Revenue efficiency was 90.4% in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 91.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011.
• Fleet utilization was 61% for the quarter.
• First quarter 2012 operating and maintenance expenses were $1.410 billion. This is an improvement from the fourth quarter of 2011 which saw operating and maintenance expenses of $1.565 billion excluding estimated loss contingencies associated with the Deepwater Horizonincident.
• Operating cash flows for the first quarter of 2012 totaled $540 million. This is a decrease from the $563 million that the company had in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Over the last few months, I have written several articles showing the strong fundamentals for the offshore drilling market. Transocean made a point of restating these trends during their earnings conference call. According to Terry Bonno, Transocean's SVP of Marketing, "Utilization and dayrates are continuing to improve and have reached levels not seen since the last cycle."

.........Read the entire article "Transocean: First Quarter Results Show Company Potential"

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Cnooc Deploys Oil Rig as Weapon to Assert China Sea Claims

China’s first deep water drilling rig began operations near an island chain in the South China Sea in a move to assert Beijing’s territorial claims as travel agencies suspended Philippines tours amid safety concerns.

Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, said its semi submersible CNOOC 981 began drilling yesterday 320 kilometers (199 miles) southeast of Hong Kong at a depth of 1,500 meters, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The area is north of the Paracel islands claimed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan.

“Large deep water drilling rigs are our mobile national territory and strategic weapon for promoting the development of the country’s offshore oil industry,” said Wang Yilin, Cnooc’s chairman, according to Xinhua. The rig would help China secure energy resources in the waters, it cited him as saying.

Competition for energy reserves in the sea has increased tensions as countries shun joint development and improve their respective naval capabilities. Chinese vessels have confronted Vietnamese survey ships over the past year and have been locked in a monthlong standoff with Philippine boats over a disputed island in another area of the sea.....Read the entire article.

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Goldman Sachs Issues Sell Rating on RIG....Dan Dicker Says Something Quite Different

Transocean (RIG) is one of the day's largest large cap losers after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a Sell rating. The firm notes that while RIG has dominated the ultra deepwater business, its rigs need extensive upgrades to keep them compliant in the post Macondo world which consensus estimates don't fully reflect.

Dan Dicker, president at MercBloc, has a very different take on how to play Transocean. And that is what makes a market. If you are a regular reader here then you know that we here at The Crude Oil Trader have very little respect for any call coming out of Goldman Sachs in the oil patch.

Here what Dan had to say today on CNBC.....



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Transocean Drops on Biggest Earnings Miss in Half a Decade

Transocean Ltd. (RIG), the world’s largest offshore oil driller, fell the most in almost three years after third quarter earnings missed analysts’ estimates by the biggest margin in at least half a decade.

Transocean declined 12 percent to close at $49 in New York. Earlier, the stock plunged as much as 14 percent for the worst intraday performance since November 2008. After regular trading on U.S. markets closed yesterday, the company posted a loss of $71 million, or 22 cents a share, its largest third quarter loss in at least 10 years.

Excluding one time items such as foreign exchange contract costs associated with last month’s Aker Drilling ASA acquisition, the Vernier, Switzerland based company recorded per share profit of 3 cents, 73 cents lower than the average of 32 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The company “did not deliver” in the third quarter, Chief Executive Officer Steven Newman told analysts and investors on a conference call today.

Manufacturing delays among equipment providers prolonged downtime for rigs subject to more stringent U.S. safety rules imposed in the wake of last year’s Macondo disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, Newman said........Read the entire Bloomberg article.



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Seadrill Secures a Five Year Contract for New Rig..... The West Capricorn

In a quest for reliable dividend plays one of our "fund favorites" has become Seadrill, ticker SDRL. Closing at 28.92 on Friday and paying a handsome $3.00 - 11.10% dividend, Seadrill released even more great news......

Seadrill has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with a major oil company for a five-year contract for operations in North America with the ultra deepwater semi submersible rig West Capricorn. The potential contract value for the firm five year period is US$919 million, which includes a US$30 million mobilization fee. The oil company has the right to extend the contract term for two additional one year periods.

West Capricorn is currently under construction at Jurong Shipyard in Singapore. The unit will commence its transit to North America upon delivery that is scheduled for late December 2011. Start up operations are scheduled for May 2012. West Capricorn will be the fourth rig of the proven Friede & Goldman ExD Millenium design that Seadrill has taken delivery of from the Jurong Shipyard since 2008. Furthermore, the rig will be the first ultra deepwater unit in the industry that is outfitted with a 7-ram blowout preventer.

Alf C Thorkildsen, Chief Executive Officer in Seadrill Management AS, says, "We are pleased to have secured a long term contract for one of our new rigs in one of the most promising deepwater regions. The contract duration proves the attractiveness of our modern fleet and offers strong earnings visibility for our shareholders. Furthermore, it gives us the opportunity to have two sister rigs working in the same region which provide for operational synergies related to performance and costs."


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Transocean OKs $3.2 Billion Share Repurchase Program

Transocean's [RIG] Board of Directors has authorized company management to implement the shareholder approved 3.5 billion Swiss franc (CHF) share repurchase program (approximately US $3.2 billion at the exchange rate prevailing at close of trading on February 12, 2010 of US $1.00 to CHF 1.08).

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend to the shareholders a dividend in the form of a capital reduction denominated in Swiss francs equivalent to approximately US $1.0 billion.

The company intends to list its shares on the SIX Swiss Exchange ("SIX") and will continue to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Board of Directors has delegated to company management full authority to begin implementation of the company’s share repurchase program, with an aggregate purchase price of up to CHF 3.5 billion (approximately US $3.2 billion). The share repurchase program was approved by shareholders at Transocean's May 2009 annual general meeting. The company plans to fund any share repurchases from its current and future cash balances and will not use debt to fund any repurchases. Repurchases may be suspended or discontinued at any time.

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend that the company’s shareholders at their May 2010 annual general meeting approve and authorize the Board of Directors to pay a dividend denominated in Swiss francs for an amount equivalent to approximately US$1.0 billion, or about US $3.11 per share (based on currently outstanding shares), converted to Swiss francs at the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to the annual general meeting. The dividend would take the form of a reduction of the par value of the company's shares, and if approved, will be paid in four equal installments with expected payment dates in July 2010, October 2010, January 2011 and April 2011.

Distributions to shareholders in the form of a reduction in par value of the company's shares, which is currently CHF 15 per share, are not subject to 35 percent Swiss withholding tax. Shareholders will be paid in US dollars converted using the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to payment, unless shareholders elect to receive the dividend payment in Swiss francs.

In addition, the company announced its intention to list its shares on the SIX in the second quarter of 2010. Listing on the SIX is subject to approval by the SIX. Transocean's shares will continue to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

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ExxonMobil May Strike Deal for $1B Arctic Rig With Transocean [RIG]

Exxon Mobil Corp. is reportedly mulling over a deal with leading offshore rig contractor Transocean to construct a drilling rig capable of operating in extreme Arctic conditions for as much as $1 billion, according to Reuters.

Citing a person familiar with the matter, Reuters reported Friday that ExxonMobil may deploy the rig offshore Greenland, Iceland or Alaska at a dayrate close to record level contracts in the $650,000 range, such as those signed for ultra deepwater rigs by Seadrill and Transocean near the peak of the market in 2008.

In November, Transocean Chief Executive Bob Long stated that the company expected to unveil a new Arctic class newbuild rig order, along with a contract, by the close of the year.

Chief Operating Officer Steven Newman, who will take the helm as Transocean's next chief executive in the first quarter of 2010, also commented during a recent conference call: "We have progressed [the rig's] design fairly far along [and] are in very developed discussions with a customer." Newman was hopeful that the contract would be finalized by the end of 2009, although Transocean had confirmed neither the contract nor the customer as 2009 drew to a close.....Read the entire article.

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Transocean Maintains Strength In Numbers

The world's largest offshore drilling contractor with 141 jackups, semisubmersibles and drillships, Transocean has been able to maintain its strength through offshore innovation and acquisitions. Merging with Global Santa Fe in 2007 to cement its place as the world's largest offshore drilling fleet, Transocean has consistently set its sights on pushing the boundaries of technology. In fact, Transocean owned and operated the world's first ever jackup rig in 1954. Through the decades, the company has continued to achieve a number of industry firsts, and that spirit of innovation has helped to turn Transocean into an industry leader.....Complete Story

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"Oil Falls Below $35 as Deepening Recession Slows Global Demand for Fuels"
Crude oil fell below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in the U.S., Europe and Asia will reduce fuel demand....Complete Story

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Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, said quarterly profit fell for the first time in more than two years after tumbling energy prices cut the value of some rigs and well-management services....Complete Story

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As OPEC ponders its next move at its March 15 meeting, analysts said the scope for further output cuts by the Saudis may be limited by domestic energy needs for natural gas to cool the desert kingdom as spring approaches....Complete Story

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Russia signed its biggest ever energy deal with China on Tuesday, under which its oil companies will receive $25 billion in loans in exchange for long-term crude supplies....Complete Story

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"Transocean Provides Fleet Status Report"
Transocean (ticker RIG) today issued an updated fleet status report covering the company's 136-unit offshore drilling fleet. Drilling rig status and contract information on the company's offshore drilling fleet has been condensed into a report titled "Transocean Fleet Status Report," which is available through...Complete Story

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Kuwait's foreign minister has been appointed acting oil minister in a new cabinet as the Gulf Arab state tries to end a political standoff which has delayed reforms in the OPEC producer, state media reported on Monday....Complete Story

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Ecuador will end its oil contracts with companies in France and Italy due to low prices, Mining and Oil Minister, Derlis Palacios, said on Friday....Complete Story

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The weekly average prices of OPEC rebounded slightly above $40 per barrel last week to $43.99, the Vienna-based cartel said on Monday....Complete Story