EIA: Natural Gas and Renewable Shares of Electricity Generation to Grow

Over the next 25 years, natural gas and renewable fuels gain a larger share of the United States generating mix of electricity, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) early release reference case. Coal remains the dominant source of electricity, but its share drops from 45% in 2010 to 39% in 2035.

These results are from the AEO2012 Reference case, which assumes no changes in current laws and regulations. The full report will include additional cases measuring the impacts of alternative policies and different paths for prices and technologies on the electric power sector.

• Annual generation from natural gas increases by 39% from 2010 to 2035. Eighty-five gigawatts of new gas capacity is added through 2035, as stable capital costs and low fuel prices make it the most attractive source of new capacity.
• Renewable energy generation grows 33% from 2010 to 2035. Non-hydro renewables account for a majority of this growth, with wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal generation all significantly larger at the end of the projection horizon.
• Coal's share of the electricity generation mix drops from 45% to 39% between 2010 and 2035. Thirty-three gigawatts of coal capacity are retired and only 14 gigawatts of new coal capacity already under construction are completed. A few factors disadvantage the relative economics of coal-fired capacity: projected low natural gas prices, the continued rise of new coal-fired plants' construction costs, and concerns over potential greenhouse gas emissions policies.
• Annual generation from nuclear power plants grows by 11% from 2010 to 2035, but its share of the generation mix declines. A total of 10 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity are projected through 2035, as well as an increase of 7 gigawatts achieved from uprates to existing nuclear units. About 6 gigawatts of existing nuclear capacity are retired, primarily in the last few years of the projection.

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Crude Oil Bulls Looking to Follow Through on Tuesday, Gain Back Momentum

Crude oil closed higher on Monday [March contract] renewing the rally off this month's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.39 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.37. Second support is this month's low crossing at 95.44.

Gold closed lower on Monday [April contract] and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1714.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1765.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1714.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday [March contract] and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is January's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

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Elliot Warren: Demand Worries Smack Crude Oil Prices

Elliot Warren, Head Energy Options Trader for Kottke, says weak demand is what's really dragging down oil prices.



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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Feb. 12th

Here is this weeks call on crude oil from the great staff over at ONG........

Crude oil's recovery from 95.44 failed to take out 101.29 and weakened sharply towards the end of the week. Crude oil is staying inside the near term falling channel from 103.74. Thus, choppy fall from there might extend below 95.44. Nonetheless, we'd expect strong support from 92.52 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 74.95 to 103.74 at 92.74). to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 101.29 will be the first signal that recent consolidative trading has finished and flip bias back to the upside for a test on 103.74 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 92.52 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Is Crude Oil in a Short Term "Regrouping Phase"

We are looking for the crude oil market [April contract now] to be on the defensive for the next couple of days, but then expect it to regroup and start moving higher once again. We are looking for crude oil to make it’s highs probably somewhere in the May period.

Once over $102 a barrel, this market should skyrocket. We want to pay close attention to this market as we believe that the recent market action is reflecting an important cyclic low period for this market. If this is true, this market could be headed substantially higher. With a Score of +55, this market we remain in a trading range.

We remain longer term positive on this market. With our monthly and daily Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

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Crude Oil Pulls Back on Renewed European Concerns and Demand

Crude oil fell overnight from the highest level weeks due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 100.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.29. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

Gold was lower overnight and poised to extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1709.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1765.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1714.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1709.00.

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is January's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Crude Oil Bulls Get New Strength on Stockpile Report

March crude oil closed higher on Wednesday following Tuesday's key reversal up and after reports of U.S. crude stockpiles increasing less than forecast. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.39 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

March natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is January's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

April gold closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1765.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

Phil Flynn: A Better Future for Price Predictions

The Energy Information Agency came out with their latest Short Term Energy Outlook and I was glad to see that they are using the futures markets to improve their market forecasts. While the EIA has done a phenomenal job in the past providing the industry and traders with valuable information, it seemed that their price projections were always a bit behind the curve. More often than not, especially during the days of the strong bull petroleum market, it seemed that the Energy Information Agency was always playing a bit of catch up.

Of course it wasn't always their fault. You see there was an era of denial about the reasons for the bull market and if the EIA dared come out about the odds for sharply higher prices, they might have been accused of feeding into the bullish frenzy. The EIA really had to be careful about stepping out about a bullish price projection even if deep within the walls of the Department of Energy they felt that higher price were a possibility.

That restraint sometimes led to conservative calls that were meant not to rattle a market that was already looking for an excuse, any excuse, to reflect the reality of increasingly bullish fundamentals.....Read the entire article.

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

EIA: Tight Oil, Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Drive Projected Increases in U.S. Crude Oil Production

 EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) early release reference case, providing updated projections for energy markets through 2035, projects increased domestic crude oil production driven by development of tight oil resources onshore and deepwater resources in the Gulf of Mexico. Tight oil refers to oil produced from shale, or other very low permeability rocks, with horizontal drilling and multi stage hydraulic fracturing technologies.

EIA projects that U.S. domestic crude oil production will increase from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2020. Even with a projected decline after 2020, U.S. crude oil production projections remain above 6 million barrels per day through 2035.




The AEO2012 early Release Reference case projects that onshore tight oil production will increase significantly, reaching 1.3 million barrels per day in 2030 and remaining above 1 million barrels per day for the remainder of the projection. As with shale gas, the application of recent technology advances significantly increases the development of tight oil resources. Projections are made for selected tight oil plays; at this point, not all plays have been, or are being, evaluated for the application of emerging production technology.

The AEO2012 also projects that continued development of deepwater crude oil resources in the Gulf of Mexico will become an increasingly important component of domestic crude production. Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf has resumed following the lifting of the 2010 moratorium, but on a schedule moderated by a slower permitting process with increased environmental review. Production in the Gulf of Mexico fluctuates as new large development projects are brought on stream.

The AEO2012 Early Release Reference case assumes that lease options in the Pacific and Atlantic will eventually be opened, but significant production from those lease sales is projected to occur after 2035. Most of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Planning Area remains under a Congressional drilling moratorium (the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006) until 2022.  

Crude Oil Moves Higher on Reports of Shrinking Stockpiles

March crude oil was higher overnight and trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.03. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish following Monday's rally signaling that a low has likely been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.29 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.29. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95. Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 97.79.

March natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi-year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is January's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960. Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 2.514.

April gold was lower due to profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1765.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1712.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1701.60. Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning trading is 1737.90.

10:30 AM ET. Feb 3 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2966B)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous -132B)

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?